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Japanese PM's NKorea trip to tackle abduction, nuclear stalemates
TOKYO (AFP) May 20, 2004
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is to visit North Korea this weekend in a bid to break a stalemate over Pyongyang's nuclear programme and to bring back the families of kidnapped Japanese citizens.

Koizumi's one-day trip to Pyongyang on Saturday will feature his second meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il following their historic summit in September 2002.

Explaining the trip last week, the prime minister said he intended to make progress on both the abduction issue and stalled six-nation discussions on Pyongyang's nuclear arms ambitions.

"It is necessary to break the stalemate," he said.

The row over North Korea's nuclear programme has been deadlocked since October 2002, when Washington said the Stalinist state had broken a 1994 nuclear freeze by launching a secret weapons drive.

And efforts to normalise relations between Tokyo and Pyongyang have stalled following a backlash from the Japanese public to North Korea's admission at the 2002 summit that it kidnapped 13 Japanese during the Cold War era, eight of whom died.

In return for expected progress, Koizumi is reportedly ready to offer some 250,000 tonnes of rice as food aid to the impoverished state and to promise to refrain from imposing economic sanctions.

The conservative Sankei Shimbun said Wednesday Japan was also prepared to give Pyongyang 10 million dollars' worth of medical supplies through an international organisation "if there is progress over the abduction issue."

Any success from Koizumi's trip is likely to boost his support ahead of upper house elections in July and Japan's influence in the six-nation talks on the nuclear stand-off, analysts said.

The talks involve the two Koreas, Japan, the United States, China and Russia.

Koizumi's priority is to bring back eight relatives of five of the abducted Japanese who were allowed to return home following the 2002 summit, analysts noted.

"The chances are high that the North will allow the eight to return to Japan," said Masao Okonogi, professor of politics at Tokyo's Keio University and an expert on Korean affairs.

"For the North, returning the eight is a merit, which will lead to financial assistance from Japan," Okonogi said. "Better ties with Tokyo will also give the North an advantage in negotiations with the United States."

Other analysts, however, warned it was still uncertain whether Koizumi could meet public expectations that he would be able to resolve the abduction issue.

Besides having the eight come to Japan, Tokyo also wants Pyongyang to account for 10 other Japanese abductees whose whereabouts remain unknown.

"We cannot rule out Koizumi's failure on the trip because North Korea is such an unpredictable state," said Hidekazu Kawai, professor of international politics at Tokyo's Gakushuin University.

"A visit by a prime minister overseas is the last card you play in diplomacy," Kawai said. "Since he is resorting to the card, he's got to show tangible results. Otherwise, he will damage his political career."

Public support for Koizumi has dropped to 45 percent from 50 percent amid growing public disillusionment over his admission to flaws in his pension payment record, according to a survey released by the Asahi Shimbun on Monday.

His approval rating shot up immediately following the 2002 summit at which North Korea admitted its agents had abducted at least 13 Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s to train their spies in Japanese language and culture.

On Monday Koizumi won US President George W. Bush's support for his planned visit but it was not disclosed whether they spoke of a US Army deserter who is one of the eight relatives the prime minister wants to bring back.

American Charles Robert Jenkins, 64, is married to a woman who was among the five who returned to Japan. He is listed as having deserted from the US Army in 1965 and Tokyo is worried Washington could demand his handover for prosecution.

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