Despite striking a deal with the United States to buy billions of dollars' worth of military hardware, without the nuclear warheads of its arch-rival Taiwan presents a minimal military threat, they say.

Premier Yu Shi-kun's comments last month echoed the doctrine of "mutually assured destruction" that maintained peace between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War, but analysts say Taipei has no deterrent sufficient to reach such a balance with China.

The comments from pro-independence Yu to Beijing stunned Taiwan.

"You have the capability to destroy me and Taiwan should have the capability to counter. You strike me with 100 missiles and I should at least strike back with 50," Yu told a gathering of government officials.

"You strike Taipei and Kaohsiung and I shall strike Shanghai. This way Taiwan will be safe," he added. Beijing said the remarks were a "belligerent provocation" while Washington called on the two sides to exercise restraint.

Military analysts point out that Taiwan is dwarfed by China militarily, and that Taiwanese troops pose no real threat to the People's Liberation Army.

"Unlike the Soviet Union, Taiwan does not possess nuclear arms," said Shuai Hua-ming, a retired army lieutenant general.

Taiwan was forced by the United States in the 1980s to scrap its plans to develop nuclear warheads and surface-to-surface missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometers (600 miles).

But it has never dropped its ambition to obtain a deterrent, like ballistic and cruise missiles.

Taipei's Apple Daily reported at the weekend that the country planned to test fire before year-end a cruise missile that could hit the eastern Chinese city of Shanghai.

But Shuai said that conventional missiles, whatever their range, would be no match to a Chinese attack.

"Without carrying nuclear warheads, cruise missiles would cause no more damage than making holes in the ground," Shuai said.

China's military spending, which rose at rates in the double figures over the past decade, is estimated at 24.5 billion dollars in 2004 -- around three times higher than Taiwan's spending -- according to Taiwan's defense ministry.

Alarmed by China's arms build-up, Taiwan reached a deal to acquire more advanced US hardware. Washington is the leading arms supplier to Taiwan despite deciding in 1979 to recognize Beijing instead of Taipei.

Taiwan's government is to seek parliament's approval for a controversial 18-billion-dollar special defense budget over a 15-year period from 2005.

The package includes anti-missile systems, eight conventional submarines and a fleet of submarine-hunting aircraft.

"Only the submarines would rank as offensive weapons, but even so, they would not be able to join the navy for the next 15 years," Shuai said.

He saw Yu's retaliatory remarks as a "bluff".

"They were simply aimed to beef up the morale of those people pushing for independence. He was telling them 'don't be afraid of China's threat,' we are also able to give them a punch on the nose," Shuai said.

Since President Chen Shui-bian was re-elected in March, China has strengthened its vow to take the island by force.

Nevertheless, Wung Ming-hsien, professor of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, noted closer military cooperation between Taiwan and the United States.

"Washington knows Taiwan must be armed with certain defense capabilities to help contain the rise of China," Wung said, adding that the arms build-up would at least make China think twice before invading the island.

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing in July asked the United States to halt military exchanges and arms sales to Taiwan given the "seriousness" of the cross-strait standoff.

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