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. Post-Arafat era opens with guarded optimism for peace process
JERUSALEM (AFP) Nov 11, 2004
Even with the peace process back in the spotlight, analysts remained wary of predicting any breakthough following Thursday's death of Yasser Arafat, long blamed by Israel and Washington for the deadlock.

Both Arafat's supporters and detractors on the international scene forecast a new impetus, as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said a resumption of long-stalled peace talks would be possible with a new Palestinian leadership.

"If a new, serious, responsible leadership should emerge... the conditions would be met to coordinate different options with this leadership, even to re-establish political negotiations with it," Arafat's arch-foe said.

Sharon said the veteran Palestinian leader's death "could mark a historic turning point for the Middle East".

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said his country would play its part in reviving peace efforts, which have been stalled ever since the January 2001 failure of a US-brokered conference in Egypt's Red Sea resort of Taba.

"We will do all we can to support and help the Palestinian people move forward toward peace during this period of transition," Powell said, without making any specific commitment.

Jerome Segal, director of the Jerusalem Project at the University of Maryland's Centre for International and Security Studies, said that any renewed peace efforts may not go smoothly.

"Most people are thinking,'since Arafat was the obstacle to ending the conflict -- the guy psychologically was unable to let go -- that without Arafat maybe now we can have peace,'" Segal said.

"Successfully ending the conflict is probably more difficult than short, medium-term management of the conflict," he warned, lowering expectations to a more modest level.

Former Israeli peace negotiator Joseph Alpher cautioned against any short-term forecast of the impact of Arafat's death on the peace process.

"This is a revolutionary situation for which there is no precedent in Palestinian custom and history, this transfer of power and authority," Alpher told AFP.

Alpher noted there were now "so many political actors" on the Palestinian scene, referring to newly-appointed PLO chairman Mahmud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, and prime minister Ahmed Qorei, or Abu Alaa.

A more moderate policy from Abu Mazen was "by no means a given", he warned. "And a lot depends on (Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan) Shalom, who is not really interested in making concessions."

Alpher also said the Middle East was at best "third on Bush's list of priorities behind Iraq and Iran".

Israel's opposition Labour party chief Shimon Peres, who won the Nobel Peace Prize alongside Arafat in 1994, said his successors could be partners in a renewed peace process but that negotiations would not be easy.

"Abu Mazen and Abu Alaa want peace but they are not the kind of people who will readily make concessions. Negotiations will be difficult with them," the former premier said.

Prominent Palestinian MP and former negotiator Hanan Ashrawi said Arafat's departure would usher in a new era for the region but insisted there would be continuity rather than all change and chaos.

"It's a transition for the whole region. It's a passing of an era," she said. "He was not your ordinary leader. It will never be the same but nobody is going to fall apart. We will persist."

Bush also said the 75-year-old Arafat's death was "a significant moment in Palestinian history.

"During the period of transition that is ahead, we urge all in the region and throughout the world to join in helping make progress toward these goals and toward the ultimate goal of peace," he added.

Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair, ahead of talks in Washington on Friday, said the Middle East peace process should now be the "highest priority" for the international community.

"We will do whatever we can working with the US and EU to help the parties reach a fair and durable settlement," he said.

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