The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) also said Washington's allies in Europe and the Middle East should brace for Trump's attention to turn towards China soon.

In its annual "Military Balance" report, the group found global military spending rose 7.4 percent last year to $2.4 trillion, fuelled by Russia's war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict and simmering tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

NATO support for Ukraine in its nearly three-year fight against Russia's invasion contributed to the surge among European nations, but the rise looks unlikely to continue, the report found.

"With budget pressures in most European countries continuing, sustaining increased spending is likely to be challenging," the London-based IISS said.

The much-watched study noted that European defence spending surged by 11.4 percent in real terms last year.

Germany's defence expenditure rose a whopping 23 percent in 2024 to $86 billion, according to the yearly assessment of the militaries and defence economics of over 170 countries.

German defence budget is now the largest in Europe, "surpassing that of the UK, which has been the largest spender in Europe and the second largest in NATO for the last three decades," the IISS said.

The report found that European defence spending is "nominally 50 percent higher compared" to a decade ago.

"The burden is not broadly shared," though, the report found, "with some NATO countries spending above three percent of GDP, while others remain below the two percent baseline".

- 'Unachievable' -

Trump has called for NATO members to spend five percent of gross domestic product on defence, more than double the military alliance's current target.

The ISS said Europe currently accounts for less than one third of total NATO defence spending, with its share at $442 billion.

Raising Europe's commitment to three percent of GDP would see the figure grow by more than $250 billion, and by almost $750 billion if five percent is achieved, the study said.

"However, such figures are unachievable at this time, with some countries already using off-budget instruments to bolster budgets," the think-tank said.

The US budget, it noted, remains at 3.39 percent of GDP while Russia's is at 6.7 percent.

- US-China warning -

IISS also provided an update on the Russian-Ukraine war, noting that Ukraine "has suffered a more serious drain on its personnel than Russia".

It added that Moscow had been "able to augment its forces with assistance from North Korea and Iran", including 10,000 North Korean troops and Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.

The IISS said that while Ukraine has received more advanced Western equipment, "Western military supplies appear insufficient to enable a sustained Ukrainian counter-offensive".

Russia lost 1,400 main battle tanks last year, the 528-page document added.

Reflecting on "a year of change" in the Middle East, the report concluded that Israel's wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the overthrow of Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad had "weakened" Iran's regional influence.

On China, the study found that President Xi Jinping "has even closer oversight" over the People's Liberation Army as China's military undergoes reform and modernisation.

China's defence budget rose seven percent last year to $235 billion, making up 44 percent of total spending in Asia.

The report concluded that "the likely shift in Washington's focus in Trump's second term towards East Asia and China" will provide a "challenge" for Europe and US allies in the Middle East.

pdh/jkb/lth

ISS A/S