What we do know is this: Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan committed suicide in his Damascus office Wednesday. The news was reported by the official Syrian News Agency, SANA. There was no mention of how he killed himself, though sources say he shot himself in the mouth.

Kenaan becomes the second top Syrian official to commit suicide. Former Prime Minister Mahmoud Zooby was reported to have killed himself in his Damascus home in May 2000. He was under house arrest on corruption charges.

The 63-year-old Kenaan had served between 1982 and 2001 as the head of Syria's military intelligence service in Lebanon where Damascus maintained several thousand troops and an important contingent of intelligence personnel from 1975 until last April 26, when under international pressure Syria was forced to withdraw.

Kenaan was recently interviewed along with other Syrian security officials by Detlev Mehlis, the German investigator leading the U.N. inquiry into the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

In a highly unusual move, Kenaan contacted Voice of Lebanon radio just a few hours before his death, stressing Syria has "great interest" in uncovering the truth behind Hariri's assassination. He said his testimony to the international investigators was aimed at "shedding light on the phase during which we served Lebanon."

Kenaan's death came a little more than a week before Mehlis' report on Hariri's assassination was to be released. In the event Kenaan would have been identified as playing a key role in the Hariri killing, the repercussions on the regime would have been severe. Assad would have been faced with the difficult choice of having to hand over a high-ranking Syrian official to an international tribunal, or refuse and face sanctions.

"We are confident that Syria is not involved and so far there is no material evidence of Syrian involvement," Assad told CNN.

Nevertheless, Kenaan's apparent suicide comes at an opportune moment.

Asked by CNN what Syria would do if the Mehlis report implicates Syrians, Assad said: "Concerning this specific matter, if indeed there is a Syrian national implicated, he would be considered as a traitor and most severely punished."

When questioned if he could have ordered the assassination, Assad said: "This is against our principles and my principle. I would never do such a thing in my life. What would we achieve?"

Yet many Alawites remain deeply upset at the way Assad has handled things lately. and are particularly embarrassed by the humiliation resulting from the U.N. investigation. While they realize the end of the Assad regime could spell the end of their political dominance in Syria, many are not entirely united.

The Alawites are an offshoot of Muslim Shiism to which Assad belongs.

"It is very well known that all the Alawites are not pro-regime, but many of them are anti and their feelings are with this group or that of the opposition like those who are still and till now sympathizing with (Assad's old rival) Salah Jedid," someone who identified himself as "A Syrian dissident," wrote to SyriaComment.com, a Web log, or blog, managed by Joshua Landis, a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International Security Affairs in Berlin and the author of a book on Assad, believes that "Bashar Assad's regime in Syria has reached its end phase, even if it manages to hang on to power for months or years."

Writing in the International Herald Tribune, Perthes states the unraveling of the Syrian regime is "so almost irrespective of what Detlev Mehlis ... will say in his report about the alleged role of Syria in that crime."

Perthes agrees, however, that the "indictment of high-ranking Syrian officials could precipitate things." But as he points out, the result of this precipitation could be "for the worse as much as for the better."

Even if U.N. investigator concludes there was no direct Syrian involvement in Hariri's assassination, Syria remains in a very difficult situation with international pressure on Damascus to introduce political and economic changes showing no signs of abatement. Assad's regime is finding itself increasingly isolated not only from international pressure and from within by what Perthes calls loss of "domestic legitimacy."

Furthermore, Syria stands accused by the Bush administration of actively supporting the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. Until recently Syria could count on the support of its European friends. But suspicion of Syria's involvement in the Hariri affair has angered French President Jacques Chirac, a close friend of Hariri. At the same time, the Syrian president has managed to sour Syria's relationship with Saudi Arabia over its mishandling of Lebanon. Hariri also held Saudi citizenship. In alienating the Saudis, Syria lost its most powerful Arab ally.

But it is on the home front where Assad is hurting the most. The bungling of the Lebanese crisis leading to what many Syrians feel was a "humiliating withdrawal" from Lebanon; the international criminal investigation following Hariri's killing; the interrogation of high-ranking government officials; all that did not go down well in Damascus.

What options are left to Assad? Perthes believes he still has room to maneuver and change the system from the top. He can blame the mistakes of the past five years on some of his associates and retire them. (Was Kenaan the first to be retired? Or as The American Thinker reports, Kenaan "was suicided today.") Release political prisoners and then hold real parliamentary elections with competitive presidential elections to follow. But that is unlikely under current conditions.

For the moment, Assad is betting on the wrong horse -- the Iraqi insurgency -- hoping they will prevail by keeping democracy and stability in Iraq at bay and that Iraq will keep the administration occupied until President Bush leaves the White House. That horse will prove to be the wrong one to count on.

related report
Bush Slams Syria for Interference in Iraq, Lebanon
by Gerry J. Gilmore
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Oct. 12, 2005 � President Bush today accused the Syrian government of looking the other way as suicide-bent insurgents flow across its border into Iraq to commit mayhem. "We expect Syria to do everything in her power to shut down the transshipment of suiciders and killers into Iraq. We expect Syria to be a good neighbor to Iraq," Bush said during a White House press conference that included outgoing Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. Poland has sent troops to support coalition efforts in Iraq.

Syria, which has a one-party Baathist government, also appears to be guilty of continued meddling in Lebanon, Bush said. This circumstance, he said, runs contrary to the opinion of responsible nations in the free world.

"It's very important for Syria to understand that the free world respects Lebanese democracy and expects Syria to honor that democracy," Bush said.

Bowing to international pressure, the Syrians recently removed their troops and intelligence services from Lebanese territory. However, an ongoing U.N. investigation, the Mehlis Report, points to possible Syrian involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri.

Bush declined to comment on possible implications for Syria if it had anything to do with Hariri's death, citing the need to wait for the Mehlis Report's conclusions. Meanwhile, the world "expects Syria to honor the democracy in the country of Lebanon," he said.

Free nations also "expect Syria not to agitate killers in the Palestinian territories," Bush said, noting there's been "good progress toward peace in the Holy Land."

Yet, Bush reiterated his concern that "foreign countries, such as Syria, might try to disrupt the peace process through encouraging terrorist activities."

Meanwhile, the United States continues to work with friends and allies to send a clear message to the Syrian government that "there are expectations involved for countries that want to be accepted in the international community," Bush said.

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