So it's likely that some U.S. Air Force fighter squadrons will have to stay on in Iraq for several years at least.

The new Iraqi air force won't have any of the Lockheed Martin F-16IQ Block 52 jets Baghdad has ordered until 2016 at the earliest and military experts say it takes three years at least to "train personnel to make these aircraft a functional and effective air defense force."

The Baghdad government took the first step to building a combat cadre for the air force in August when it signed an agreement with Washington for 10 Iraqi pilots to begin preliminary F-16 training in the United States.

They will then move on to U.S.-supplied T-6A Texan II and supersonic T-38 Talon aircraft for more advanced training under a 12-to-17-month program. Later they will join U.S. F-16 squadrons in Iraq for final operational training.

"I don't think the U.S. Air Force will be able to leave Iraq for at least five years, as there's no way the Iraqis alone will be able to deal with any kind of air threat for this period," said retired Brig. Gen. Musa Qalleb, a Middle East defense expert.

U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the senior U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, recently told the Defense News weekly the Iraqi air force's "ability to defend their air space against air threats is … not going to be what they desire by the time" U.S. forces depart.

The Iraqi air force commander, Lt. Gen. Anwar Hamad Ahmed, admitted recently: "We don't have the combat or jet fighters or interceptor planes or air-defense systems …

"We're still far from an air force's full potential. We'll need the U.S. long after 2011."

Iraq plans to build an air force with 350 aircraft, including as many as 96 F-16s, and personnel strength of 20,000 by 2020 as part of its overall drive to create a new defense establishment.

The development of the army ground forces, estimated at 220,000 men in up to 20 armored and mechanized divisions, is also lagging but some of the units are combat-capable.

The first tank division, which will eventually be armed with 140 M1A1 main battle tanks built by General Dynamics Land Systems of the United States, is being established near Baghdad.

The Iraqis plan to have at least four air bases, one each in the north, south and western desert, with the fourth near Baghdad.

All of this causes deep unease in neighboring Iran, which fought a devastating war with Saddam Hussein's regime in 1980-88 and has no wish to see its western flank threatened anew by a strong U.S.-trained military.

Since Saddam was toppled in the 2003 U.S. invasion, overwhelmingly Shiite Muslim Iran has steadily increased its influence in Shiite-dominated Iraq.

Tehran isn't likely to allow Baghdad to build armed forces with any significant strike capabilities -- and won't be happy about an extended U.S. military presence in Iraq.

U.S. military analyst D.J. Elliott, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer who compiles the Iraqi Security Forces Order of Battle Web site, said the U.S. Air Force "will probably base six fighter squadrons at Tallil, Balad and Al-Asad" air bases while the Iraqis develop military capabilities.

"Their duties will include training the Iraqi air force in combat maneuvering and providing air defense until they are operational," he noted.

"This will probably be needed until 2018-20, however, as delays in delivery and training could extend this requirement."

Under a $4.5 billion deal, Lockheed Martin will provide the Iraqis with an initial 18 F-16IQ along with advanced weapons and other systems that aren't perceived as a threat by Iraq's neighbors.

The package includes 24 Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-229 or General Electric F110-GE-129 increased performance engines, 200 Raytheon AIM-9L/M-8/9 Sidewinder air-to-air and 150 AIM-7M Sparrow missiles, 50 GBU-10 Paveway-II laser-guided 2,000-pound bombs made by Raytheon and Hughes Aircraft Corp., and Lockheed Martin 20 AN/AAq-33 Sniper advanced surveillance and targeting pods.

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