But given the violent twists of American politics in the early 21st century, analysts said that Republicans cannot be sure that they will not face the ire of voters next time, leaving Obama's 2012 reelection hopes intact.

Just two years ago, Obama vowed to change America, and the world.

But voters furious he had failed to lead them out of economic malaise were not prepared to wait, using mid-term elections to hand the House of Representatives to the Republicans he crushed in 2008.

When final votes are tallied, Democrats will likely keep the Senate, but with a withered majority, that with the Republican House will stop Obama's reform train in its tracks.

White House dreams of comprehensive immigration reform and action on global warming have now fizzled and Obama may face a rearguard action just to save his historic healthcare law.

Obama and his Republican foes may agree on one thing -- they have both felt the lash of the violent instability that keeps battering Washington.

"Both parties have benefited and suffered from the change steamroller that is blowing through American politics," said Dan Shea, a professor of political science at Allegheny College, Pennsylvania.

In 2000, George W. Bush's disputed presidential victory, and reelection four years later spurred dreams of a permanent Republican majority.

In 2006, Democrats surged back after Hurricane Katrina and Iraq blew away Bush's presidency, presaging Obama's triumph two years later.

But now, voters, especially independents who helped put Obama in power, have switched again.

At first sight, Tuesday's election seems to have sent a confusing message.

Republicans accuse Obama of launching an extreme left-wing power grab but elements of his own party say he failed to fight for a progressive agenda.

The insurgent Tea Party movement meanwhile fired up the conservative base and powered Republican wins.

But if it pulls Republicans even further right, conservatives may nominate a 2012 presidential candidate who is too radical for Americans as a whole -- leaving an opening for Obama.

"One of the most important developments in American politics today, is the waning of party identification," said Bruce Buchanan, of the University of Texas at Austin.

One certainty is that the economy was the main driver of the mid-terms.

Exit polls conducted by American television networks on Tuesday showed that as many as 88 percent of voters felt the economy was in bad shape and just 35 percent thought that the country was heading in the right direction.

Given those figures, it is clear that if the recovery is not felt nationwide by 2012, Obama could be in trouble.

"We were faced with the worst economic condition since the Great Depression, whenever that has happened, the party in power gets clobbered," said Ed Rendell, the outgoing Democratic governor of Pennsylvania on MSNBC.

Obama will be left with tough questions about his own presidency.

The exit polls suggest he must do a better job of showing voters he cares about their economic plight and can fix it.

He will also have to show a taste for political brinkmanship and relish for outmaneuvering his foes that he has failed to show so far.

Given voter fixation on the economy, Obama may also perhaps ask did his bid to launch a historic health care reform law -- the dream of Democrats for decades -- amount to overreading his mandate?

And did he pay for failing to drain the partisan swamp in Washington -- despite Republican obstruction -- after billing himself as the only man fit for the job?

"He is going to have to reach out across the aisle, to offer an olive branch," said Shea, arguing that the independents Obama wants to win back want to see both parties working together -- however hard it is.

Buchanan added: "Obama did not do as much as the voters wanted him to do in reaching out across the aisle."

First-term presidents always expect a bloody nose from voters, but given the soaring expectations generated by Obama's election, and the likely margin of Republican victory in the House -- more than 50 seats -- 2010 was remarkable.

But in 1994, Bill Clinton lost 52 House seats, then outwitted Republicans to win reelection two years later.

In 1982, Ronald Reagan's approval rating sat at 42 percent -- worse than Obama's current level, and he lost 26 House of Representatives seats -- but rebounded with a recovering economy and won a Republican landslide in 1984.

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