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TERROR WARS
Chaos in Yemen undercuts US war against AQAP
By Dan De Luce
Washington (AFP) March 24, 2015


Lebanon army detains suspect in beheading of soldier
Beirut (AFP) March 24, 2015 - The Lebanese army said on Tuesday it had detained a suspect in the August 2014 beheading of a soldier, along with a second man accused of attacks on troops.

"The intelligence directorate this morning arrested wanted terrorists Omar Miqati, known as 'Abu Huraira', and Bilal Miqati, known as 'Abu Omar al-Lubnani' or 'Abu Omar al-Trabulsi", the army command said in a statement.

The statement said the men were accused of "belonging to a terrorist organisation and participating in attacks on the military and terrorist operations on Lebanese territory".

"One of them is also suspected of involvement in the slaughter of a kidnapped soldier," it added.

The statement did not specify which man was suspected of the murder, but the army last year named Bilal Miqati as a suspect in the August 2014 beheading of soldier Ali al-Sayyed.

He was among some 30 Lebanese soldiers and policemen kidnapped by jihadists from the Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda's Syrian branch Al-Nusra Front in August last year.

The members of the security forces were abducted during clashes with jihadists in Lebanon's Arsal region near the border with Syria.

A truce ended the fighting, but the jihadists took the hostages with them as they withdrew into the mountains between Lebanon and Syria.

They have since killed four hostages, and a fifth has died of injuries.

The other 25 remain in the hands of the jihadist group, nine with IS and 16 with Al-Nusra, despite the efforts of Qatari mediators trying to win their release.

A security source said the two Miqatis, believed to be cousins, were arrested at a checkpoint in the mountainous area near the town of Arsal.

"They were coming from the mountainous region of Qalamun (in Syria) where they were fighting with jihadist groups," the source said, adding that the two were clean-shaven in an attempt to avoid being recognised.

The source said the suspects had fled Lebanon after taking part in clashes with the army in the northern port city of Tripoli in October, and that Omar Miqati was suspected of murdering two Lebanese soldiers there.

Omar Miqati's father Ahmad was arrested in October over allegations he was recruiting for IS.

Australia stops third teenager headed for Mideast jihad
Sydney (AFP) March 25, 2015 - Australia has prevented a third teenager from flying out to fight in the Middle East, a minister said Wednesday, as Western countries battle to stop the flow of youngsters to jihadist groups.

The 17-year-old boy was taken off a plane at Sydney airport on March 12 after being interviewed by counter-terrorism officers, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton told reporters.

He has since been returned to his family while investigations continue.

Two other boys, aged 16 and 17, with tickets to an undisclosed Middle Eastern country were stopped from leaving Australia on March 6.

The cases came after three British schoolgirls left their London homes to join Islamic State (IS) militants in Syria in February, which sparked accusations that authorities had failed to warn families their children risked being radicalised.

Some 200 people have been prevented from leaving Australia to become foreign fighters with terrorist groups, authorities say.

"The point of all this is there is a significant and growing threat at our airports and our borders," Dutton said.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott underlined that no effort would be spared to prevent people joining groups such as IS in Iraq and Syria.

Yemen's descent into chaos has undermined the US campaign against Al-Qaeda there, forcing Washington to abandon a strategy once touted as a model for counter-terrorism efforts.

President Barack Obama's decision last week to withdraw all remaining US troops in Yemen from a base in the south underlined the gravity of the situation, with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) now potentially posing an even greater danger to the West, experts and former intelligence officials said.

"Certainly a repositioning of our forces out of Yemen would make our fight against AQAP more difficult, there is no question about that," Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steven Warren told reporters Tuesday.

"That said, we continue to have the ability to hunt and kill Al-Qaeda terrorists anywhere they are," Warren said.

The Obama administration had long hailed a partnership with the Yemeni government as a successful way to wage war against the most dangerous branch of Al-Qaeda.

Washington had sent in US special forces units and provided weapons to Sanaa to help the army hunt down Al-Qaeda militants. With Yemen's collaboration, Washington carried out more than 100 drone strikes against AQAP extremists since 2002, according to a tally by the New America Foundation.

The approach was praised as an alternative to counter Al-Qaeda without committing large numbers of ground troops in drawn-out occupations as in Iraq or Afghanistan.

But Yemen's President Abdedrabbo Mansour Hadi has fled to the south in the face of advancing Huthi Shiite militia. With no viable partner to work with and the country on the brink of all-out civil war, the US strategy is now in tatters.

"Definitely our counter-terrorism efforts and those of our principal ally, the Saudis, have been dealt a very significant setback," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who has long tracked extremist threats in the Middle East.

"We no longer have an embassy. We no longer have boots on the ground," added Riedel, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

- Loss of intelligence -

The US still has drones and other aircraft at bases in Saudi Arabia and Djibouti that could go after Al-Qaeda in Yemen, but the Americans can no longer count on a flow of crucial intelligence as followers of Hadi are now preoccupied with a fight against their Huthi foes.

"Maybe we can launch drone strikes from other countries, but if you don't have that intelligence on the ground, how do you know who to hit and where and when?" Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, told ABC News on Sunday.

However, the Huthis are deeply hostile to Al-Qaeda and will be able to keep them out of mainly Shiite areas in the north and west, experts said.

Despite the enmity of the Huthis, AQAP will be in a stronger position -- at least in Sunni regions to the south and east -- as it will no longer face constant pressure from the United States and the Yemeni government, Riedel said.

"The threat from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula probably goes up," Riedel told AFP.

AQAP, which has been linked to more than one attempt to blow up aircraft bound for the United States, will likely "have more freedom to operate and that means the risk of another bomb attack on an American airliner has to be considered higher."

- Proxy war -

Washington's only alternative will be to work with its Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia and Oman, as well as forces loyal to president Hadi, to check AQAP, analysts said.

But Shiite Iran is believed to be backing the Huthis, and Tehran's rivals in Saudi Arabia will be keen to focus on the Huthis, who they see as a more serious threat.

The US government will need to persuade its Gulf allies to look for a peace deal that could defuse the growing unrest in Yemen, according to Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Circumstances call for a hard-minded deal that circumscribes the influence of all, inside and outside of Yemen, and grants some degree of autonomy to the various populations in the country," Alterman wrote.

He said that "reaching some sort of understanding in Yemen would create the basis for broader regional accommodation on a variety of proxy conflicts, reaching into Syria, Libya, and beyond."


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