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IRAQ WARS
Despite jihadist drive, Mideast colonial borders seen intact
by Staff Writers
Beirut (AFP) June 26, 2014


Rise of jihadists in Iraq a boon for Damascus
Beirut (AFP) June 29, 2014 - The rise of jihadists in Iraq has set the West on edge, but Damascus sees it is an opportunity to legitimise its battle against rebels and promote it as a war on "terror".

President Bashar al-Assad's regime has repeatedly denied the existence of a revolt seeking political change in Syria, instead branding its opponents -- both peaceful and armed -- as "terrorists".

For Damascus, the lightning Sunni offensive in neighbouring Iraq led by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) provides a chance to lend credence to its rhetoric.

"The West must recognise it made a mistake by encouraging all these people to establish themselves in the region," said Waddah Abed Rabbo, editor-in-chief of pro-regime daily Al-Watan.

"It's time to realise that an international coalition is needed to fight the terrorism that is spreading from Jordan to Turkey. It's no longer just a Syrian problem," he told AFP.

"Of course, Syria must be part of this coalition. It is doing all the work. By fighting the terrorists at home, Syria is helping the Jordanians and the Iraqis too," Abed Rabbo added.

The West has hesitated to supply arms to Syria's opposition, fearing that weapons could end up in jihadist hands.

Now, with ISIL gaining swathes of territory in northern and western Iraq, the US-backed Iraqi military has been exposed as too fragile to weather the onslaught alone.

Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told AFP: "The (Syrian) regime seems to be satisfied with the situation."

If the United States does not support Baghdad now, Perthes said, Washington "will be accused of letting Iraq fall into the hands of jihadists".

And if the US gives Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki military aid or even drone or air strikes, it will "be seen as cooperating not only with Iran but also with Bashar al-Assad's regime".

Shiite Iran is a key ally of both Assad and Maliki's government.

But any attempts by the administration in Washington to seek rapprochement with Assad to build a front against ISIL "would further weaken the moderate opposition and rebels", Perthes said.

- Winning Western support -

Washington said on Thursday it opposes any intervention by Damascus in Iraq's conflict, after Maliki reported that Syrian warplanes had launched strikes against militants on the Iraqi side of the border.

Syria's war began as a peaceful movement for political change before a brutal government crackdown saw it become a full-blown insurgency, but the conflict became more complex when jihadists from around the world flocked to Syria.

Rebels seeking Assad's ouster initially welcomed ISIL in Syria, but its systematic abuses and quest for dominance turned the opposition against it.

Now, moderates and Islamists are fighting both the regime and ISIL at the same time.

Until the crisis in Iraq erupted, the Syrian air force only occasionally targeted ISIL positions, according to Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

But after Sunni militants launched their offensive "the regime air force started carrying out daily, intense raids against ISIL bastions".

"This way, the regime shows itself as fighting a war against ISIL," Abdel Rahman said, alleging there has been a "tacit agreement with Western countries to strike the jihadists... They are coordinating with the regime."

Assad's regime, he added, "wants to try to regain its legitimacy. It may be that the regime is winning back the support of countries that were vying for its ouster, but it will never regain the backing of the people."

Syria's war has killed more than 162,000 people, and forced nearly half the population to flee their homes.

A blistering jihadist offensive has sparked debate on the Middle East's colonial-era borders being redrawn, but experts say this is unlikely as Arabs have grown accustomed to their nation states.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant posted pictures online this month of militants bulldozing a berm dividing Iraq and Syria, symbolising its goal of uniting its forces in the two countries.

ISIL entitled the photo series "Smashing the Sykes-Picot border" -- a reference to the secret deal that Britain and France signed on May 16, 1916, carving up the Middle East, with the former taking Iraq and the latter Syria.

To this day, the agreement remains a symbol of the duplicity of the world powers across the volatile region.

From the ruins of the Ottoman empire, the birth of a greater Arab kingdom as promised by the Britons never eventuated, with nation states persisting.

"I'm not sure how much people are attached to the borders they have, but they have become used to them," said Peter Sluglett of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.

"If you look at Middle Eastern borders, there have been no major changes since 1920... After nearly 100 years, I think these boundaries are probably here to stay.

"Pan-Arab nationalism has had its day," said Sluglett.

The Sykes-Picot Agreement, which was endorsed at the San Remo Conference in April 1920, riled Arab nationalists and Islamists, but the leaders of these new states have jealously held on to power and decolonisation has changed little.

The only attempt to form a united Arab republic between Egypt and Syria proved to be fleeting. Initiated by Gamal Abdel Nasser, it only lasted between February 1958 and September 1961.

"The Arab nationalists called for Arab unity and for the elimination of the arbitrary borders... but failed dismally," said Raed Fahmi, an Iraqi former minister.

- 'Most want peace' -

And "later on all leaders focused on enhancing their power within each individual Arab country," said Fahmi.

Rather than Arab nationalism, the jihadists of ISIL are driven by the goal of a caliphate, as established after the death of the Prophet Mohammed in accordance with Islamic sharia law.

Jihadists nostalgic for the Golden Age still aspire to creating an empire like the one that grew through conquest to include the Middle East, North Africa and Spain.

For Sluglett, the jihadist offensive that this month captured tracts of land linking Syria and Iraq is little more than a "symbolic gesture".

"Most people in Iraq and Syria are far more interested in peace, and the vast majority are absolutely fed up with Islamic extremism."

Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche also believes the borders drawn up under Sykes-Picot will be difficult to erase.

"New states will appear in the Middle East, but within the current borders," said Balanche.

"I don't think that a piece of Syria and a piece of Iraq would constitute a new state.

"Iraq will undoubtedly break up eventually, with the Kurds in the north the first to claim independence and the Sunni-Shiite Arab federation eventually bursting," he added.

- 'No change without violence' -

But Pierre-Jean Luizard of the Paris-based Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique thinks the region is about to get new borders.

"I fear we are on the eve of very important changes that challenge states seen as colonial creations," said Luizard.

"As we come up to commemorations of World War I, the state and political order of 1920 is being questioned. We are seeing a great new game at play, one that delegitimises states -- not only Iraq and Syria, but also Lebanon.

"Such change won't come without violence."

But for Waddah Abed Rabbo, chief editor of Syria's pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper, ISIL serves the interests of American neo-conservatives.

"They want to create entities hostile to each other that will lead the region in endless wars, driving out the brightest and setting Syria back hundreds of years," he said.

"Behind the scenes in the US administration, there is much debate between different streams, with some believing that if ISIL manages to settle in western Iraq, it would be an opportunity to cut the Tehran-Baghdad-Beirut axis and isolate Syria."

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