On September 3 2017 North Korea detonated its most powerful nuclear blast to date, sending tensions on the peninsula higher than a mushroom cloud. Less than six months later the two sides' heads of state cheered a joint ice hockey team.

The speed of the Olympics-driven rapprochement across the Demilitarized Zone that has divided North and South since the end of the Korean war has been extraordinary.

But how deep it runs, how far it will go and how long it will last once the Games are over remain very open to question, analysts say.

The North has sent its athletes to Pyeongchang, along with cheerleaders and performers, and dispatched a diplomatic delegation led by Kim Yong Nam, its ceremonial head of state, technically its highest-level official ever to visit the South.

Its key member, though, was leader Kim Jong Un's sister and key confidante Kim Yo Jong, who brought a personal message from her brother and his invitation to South Korean President Moon Jae-in to a summit in Pyongyang.

The offer puts Moon in a quandary, observers say -- accept and he risks alienating key ally and protector Washington, decline and his lifelong hopes for engagement could wither.

"The Olympic outreach is likely intended to widen the already obvious rift between the US (under Trump the ultra) and SK (under Moon the committed engager)," Robert Kelly of Pusan National University wrote on Twitter.

Washington insists that Pyongyang must take concrete steps towards denuclearisation before any talks can begin, while Moon -- whose parents escaped from the North in a US evacuation during the war -- has long argued for closer involvement to bring it to the negotiating table.

Visiting US Vice President Mike Pence did not engage with the North Korean representatives just a few seats away at the opening ceremony, and did not get up to cheer when athletes from the host nation and its neighbour entered the arena together behind a unification flag.

But Kelly did not expect the alliance between Washington -- which has 28,500 troops stationed in the South to defend it from the North -- and Seoul to be put at risk.

It "has had way worse ups-and-downs than the 'lipstick diplomacy' of the 'propaganda Olympics'", he wrote, and Moon was unlikely to be "seriously bowled over by some united squad medals and a trip to Pyongyang".

"He's a liberal, not an idiot or a traitor."

- Joint drills -

Moon carefully avoided either accepting or declining Kim's invitation, calling for efforts to create "the right conditions" for a trip, and urging Pyongyang to seek an "absolutely necessary" dialogue with the United States.

There have been summits between the two Koreas before. South Korean presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun went to Pyongyang in 2000 and 2007 respectively to meet the current leader's father and predecessor Kim Jong Il.

Similarly many high-profile joint cultural or sporting events were mounted, but the effort failed to stop the North's weapons push.

To ensure the North's participation at the Games, this time Seoul persuaded Washington to delay annual joint military drills that always infuriate Pyongyang.

It secured a UN exemption to allow one blacklisted official to travel, and a waiver from US sanctions to enable an Asiana Airlines plane to fly North, while granting one of its own for a North Korean ship that came south.

But analysts expect the momentum to prove fragile and unsustainable once the drills -- habitually slammed by the North as a practice for invasion, to which it often responds with missile tests -- resume after the Paralympics.

- 'Treasured sword' -

Kim Yo Jong is the first member of the North's ruling family to set foot in the South since the 1950-53 Korean War, and was in the stands with Moon and Kim Yong Nam to support the two sides' unified women's ice hockey on Saturday -- their first joint team at any Olympics.

But it lost 8-0, and the chances of the dazzling but largely symbolic moves leading to a tangible political breakthrough are almost as remote, analysts say.

The North is a notoriously tough negotiator, adamant that it needs its "treasured sword" of nuclear weapons to defend itself against the threat of invasion by the United States, and will never give them up.

Just a day before the opening ceremony it held a military parade in Pyongyang, putting its intercontinental ballistic missiles -- which can reach the US mainland -- on display.

Easing the deadlock is a daunting if not impossible challenge for Moon, said Seoul National University professor Kim Byung-yeon, likening him to an estate agent trying to broker a deal.

"For now the North is asking for a price that is too high, and the US is not willing to buy at that price," Kim told Seoul's JoongAng Ilbo daily.

"If the broker tries too hard to convince both sides when the price gap is simply too high, he will end up getting criticised by them both."

Tillerson says 'too early' for direct talks with N. Korea
Cairo (AFP) Feb 12, 2018 - US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Monday it was "too early" to discuss direct negotiations with North Korea, after Vice President Mike Pence said the US was open to talks.

Pence was quoted in the Washington Post on Sunday as saying the US and South Korea had agreed terms for future diplomatic engagement with North Korea.

He said the United States and its allies would impose "steep and escalating costs" on Pyongyang until it takes "clear steps toward denuclearisation".

But he said the White House was willing to "sit down and talk with the regime while that pressure campaign is ongoing".

"If you want to talk, we'll talk," the paper quoted him as saying.

Asked about the article during a visit to Egypt, Tillerson said: "I think it's too early to judge."

"We've said for some time it's really up to the North Koreans to decide when they're ready to engage with us in a sincere way, a meaningful way," he said.

"They know what has to be on the table for conversations."

He said it was important first "to determine whether the parties are in fact ready to engage in something that's meaningful."

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have exchanged a series of personal insults.

Pence's comments come at a time of reconciliation between the two Koreas, which are still technically at war.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has used the Winter Olympics hosted by South Korea to unleash a diplomatic charm offensive.

But Pence, speaking to reporters on Saturday, stressed "the need to continue to isolate North Korea economically and diplomatically until they abandon their nuclear and ballistic missile program."

Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com

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US, S. Korea united as inter-Korea talks occur: Pence
Washington (AFP) Feb 10, 2018
The US and South Korea stand united against North Korea's nuclear program, even as the two Koreas hold talks in conjunction with the Winter Olympics, US Vice President Mike Pence said Saturday. Analysts say the North's Olympic diplomatic drive seeks to loosen international sanctions against it and undermine the alliance between Seoul and Washington. Pence, speaking to reporters abord Air Force Two after attending the opening ceremony of the Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, said that he and Pre ... read more