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Indian missile pride hides strategic flaws: analysts
by Staff Writers
New Delhi (AFP) April 20, 2012

India's new missile 'operational in two years'
New Delhi (AFP) April 20 - India's new long range missile, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead anywhere in China, will be operational within two years, its developers said Friday, a day after the weapon's maiden test.

The state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which built the Agni V, also rejected the prospect of India "capping" its missile programme just because it had now had a weapon with an intercontinental reach.

"We will carry out two more tests of Agni V which will take about one-and-a-half years, and after that the production of the missile will commence and we will start handing it over to the military," DRDO chief V.K. Saraswat said.

"When it reaches the military they will start training and so a maximum time of two years is needed to operationalise Agni V," he told reporters.

India successfully tested the Agni V, which has a range of 5,000 kilometres (3,100 miles) and could potentially hit targets in Europe, on Thursday, triggering an outpouring of national pride.

With its ability to strike across the Chinese mainland, the missile is seen as marking a significant upgrade of India's nuclear deterrent.

India and China, each with a population of more than one billion, have prickly relations and a legacy of mistrust that stems from a brief but bloody border war in 1962.

Saraswat, who described Thursday's test as "textbook perfect," rejected suggestions that the Agni V meant India had achieved its regional strategic objectives and so had no need of more powerful, even longer-range missiles.

"Our development needs are based upon today's threats and also evolving threats," he said.

"And so there is no question of capping any programme because we will always have an evolving threat which will require different classes of systems."

Agni, which means "fire" in Sanskrit, is the name given to a series of rockets India developed as part of its ambitious integrated guided missile development project launched in 1983.

India's shorter-range Agni I and II were developed with traditional rival Pakistan in mind, while the later versions reflect a shift in India's focus towards China.


India's pride at the successful test of a long-range, nuclear-capable missile hides weaknesses in strategic military planning that undermine its global power aspirations, analysts say.

Thursday's launch of the Agni V, which has a range of 5,000 kilometres (3,100 miles) and can carry a one-tonne nuclear payload, triggered a round of intense, patriotic self-congratulation.

"This launch has given a message to the entire world that India has the capability to design, develop, build and manufacture missiles of this class," said V.K. Saraswat, head of the state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation.

"We are today a missile power," Saraswat announced.

The sense of achievement was not unfounded.

The Agni V is more than 80 percent indigenously developed, and with a range extending across the whole of China and beyond, it holds the potential to significantly upgrade India's military deterrent.

"It has been termed a game changer, and in many ways it is a game changer. It covers the whole of China which was not the case before," said strategic missile expert P.K. Ghosh.

But while acknowledging the technological achievement, a number of analysts noted it was just a tiny step towards achieving any military parity with its giant regional rival.

"We are still way behind China. In terms of missile numbers, range and quality, they are way ahead of us," said C. Raja Mohan, a security analyst and senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research, a policy think-tank in Delhi.

Mohan also argued that there was too much focus on "demonstration" launches, which only proved that India's missile policy was led by the scientific community rather than the government and military bureaucracy.

"We can all wrap ourselves in the flag today, but there's a dearth of real strategy on how to actually deploy missile technology," he said.

The Agni V remains some way from actually being inducted into the armed forces.

Experts said it would require four or five more tests to confirm its flight path, accuracy and overall competence, before production could actually begin.

Rahul Bedi, a consultant with global security analysts IHS Jane's, said India's political leadership had failed to capitalise on the technological breakthroughs of its scientists.

"India's nuclear deterrence lacks political foresight and understanding of its employment primarily because of the politicians' limited understanding of strategic matters," Bedi said.

"The euphoria over Agni V's success will abate fast if not followed by firming up this dissuasive deterrence capability that has only been demonstrated today, not confirmed," he added.

Agni, which means "fire" in Sanskrit, is the name given to a series of rockets India developed as part of its ambitious integrated guided missile development project launched in 1983.

While the shorter-range Agnis I and II were mainly developed with traditional rival Pakistan in mind, later versions with a range of 3,500 kilometres are perceived as China-centric deterrents.

India and China, each with a population of more than one billion, have prickly relations and a legacy of mistrust that stems from a brief but bloody border war in 1962.

The Chinese foreign ministry said Thursday it had taken note of the Agni launch, and downplayed any sense of rivalry between the neighbours.

"China and India are both big emerging countries. We are not rivals but cooperation partners," foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told reporters.

After the successful test, much was made of the fact that the Agni V could eventually push India into the league of countries with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

But K. Santhanam, one of the military scientists behind India's 1998 nuclear tests, questioned the strategic motivation behind extending the country's missile strike range even further.

"The Agni V has strategic relevance, but how far do you want to go? Do you want to go to Washington DC?," Santhanam told AFP.

"We don't need ICBMs because we are at most a regional power and they wouldn't fit into any coherent strategy given the current security scenario," he added.

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Indian media hail missile, some warn of triumphalism
New Delhi (AFP) April 20, 2012 - Indian newspapers on Friday trumpeted the launch of a new long-range, nuclear-capable missile as a sign of New Delhi's emerging power, while others warned about misplaced triumphalism.

"India goes ballistic," headlined the English-language tabloid Mail Today over a full-page photo of the Agni V missile lifting off on Thursday from its launch site in eastern India.

"The entire nation joined the defence scientists... in cheering the path-breaking feat," it said. "And India proudly declared that it had taken a giant stride in security preparedness by developing a strategic deterrent against potential threats."

"Missile Muscle" said the front-page headline on The Indian Express broadsheet, while the Times of India declared that the "Agni V roars into elite ICBM club."

India had "yanked open the door to the super exclusive ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) club that counts only the US, Russia, China, France and the UK as its members."

ICBMs are the most advanced and long-range missile systems, but the Agni V will need to increase its range to 5,500 km (3,400 miles) from its current 5,000 kilometres and be further tested to be classified in this category.

In the Hindi-language media, the daily Hindustan's headline read "Jai Hind" (Hail India) while the Dainik Jagran said "Half the world in our range".

"Agni V is the latest product of Brand India. The successful test is now a cause of worry for our enemies because they will have to think a hundred times before attacking us," said the Dainik Jagran.

The Agni V was test-fired on Thursday morning in a 20-minute flight that took it southeast over the Bay of Bengal and then to its pre-determined landing position in the southern Indian Ocean, officials said.

It was tracked by ships along its route and was declared a success by India's state defence hardware developer and the government, which claimed that it was "a major milestone in India's missile programme".

If confirmed in further tests, the three-section, 50-tonne missile will be capable of delivering a one-tonne nuclear warhead anywhere in rival China, giving India a crucial deterrent against its more advanced neighbour.

But commentator Manoj Joshi, writing in the Mail Today, said India should not take the claims of success at face value from the defence establishment.

"These are all meaningless and needlessly boastful claims," he wrote, referring to comments from officials on Thursday about the Agni V being a"game changer and a technological marvel".

"As of now all we know independently is that the missile did take off. Where it landed is of course a secret," he explained.



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NUKEWARS
With eye on China, India tests new long-range missile
Bhubaneswar, India (AFP) April 20, 2012
India on Thursday successfully test fired a new missile capable of delivering a one-tonne nuclear warhead anywhere in rival China, marking a major advance in its military capabilities. Watched by hundreds of scientists, the Agni V blasted off shortly after 8:00 am (0230 GMT) from a concrete launchpad on an island off the eastern state of Orissa. India views the rocket, which has a range ... read more


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