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Iraq rivals jostle for power after cleric Sadr's shock win By Salam Faraj Baghdad (AFP) May 15, 2018 Populist Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr on Tuesday eyed a governing coalition after dealing a blow to both Iranian and US influence with a shock election triumph that upended Iraqi politics. With the last ballots still being counted, however, Tehran and its local allies already appeared to be making a rival push to block the fiery preacher's route to power. Near complete results showed Sadr set to scoop the most seats in parliament after his Marching Towards Reform alliance with Iraq's communists tapped popular anger over corruption and foreign meddling. Rivals called to congratulate him on the victory, his office said, after Iraqis went to the poll Saturday for the country's first election since the defeat of the Islamic State group. The vote -- which saw record high abstentions -- was a slap in the face to the widely reviled elite that has dominated Iraq since the 2003 US-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein. Sadr, who has ruled himself out of becoming prime minister, is looking to be the kingmaker and to cobble together a technocrat government from a dozen parties. But with his alliance falling short of a majority, it will take lengthy wrangling to forge a coalition. Tallies put the Conquest Alliance of pro-Iranian former paramilitary fighters who helped battle IS in second place, followed by incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's bloc. Abadi -- a consensus figure favoured by the US -- had been seen as likely frontrunner after declaring victory over the jihadists five months ago. Sadr rose to prominence in the wake of the US invasion, when his militia fought a bloody insurgency against American troops. After years on the sidelines, he has reinvented himself as a champion of the poor and linked up with secularists to battle corruption. He is one of the few Iraqi politicians opposed to both the presence of American troops and the heavy influence that neighbouring Iran exercises over Iraq. In a surprising move last year, he visited regional Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia, as Tehran's rival Riyadh looks to increase its involvement in Iraq. Supporters in the cleric's impoverished Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City -- named after his late ayatollah father -- remain hopeful that his victory could spell improvements. "If we want to change things then the prime minister needs to come from Marching Towards Reform," said resident Salah Jamal, 24. "We have tried all the others," Jamal insisted. "But we have had no results." - Iran seeks rival coalition - The protracted horse-trading ahead comes at a time of high tensions after Washington's withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran and fears of a tug-of-war over Iraq. While Sadr's victory has yet to be confirmed, Iran already appears to convening meetings to try to block him from forming a government. A participant said Qassem Suleimani, the foreign operations chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, was in Baghdad to try to broker a coalition among Sadr's Shiite rivals. Suleimani has reportedly called for a union between Abadi's bloc, the Conquest Alliance of former anti-IS commander Ameri and former premier Nuri al-Maliki. Abadi and Maliki are bitter rivals despite coming from the establishment Dawa party that has dominated politics in post-Saddam Iraq. While speculation swirls, the next concrete step remains completing the vote count and firming up the final make-up of Iraq's new 329-seat parliament. Officials on Tuesday announced results for two provinces where disputes had caused delays. The final nationwide tally and exact make-up of the country's next parliament is expected to be released in the coming days.
What next for Iraq as cleric Sadr heads for election win? The populist Shiite preacher, a firebrand who once battled US troops and now opposes Tehran, is looking to cobble together a broad technocrat coalition tasked with rooting out Iraq's endemic corruption. But can he really sideline powerful foreign players and domestic rivals to take control? - Playing by the rules? - While Sadr's unlikely Marching Towards Reform alliance with Iraq's communists looks on course to be the biggest group in parliament -- it faces many obstacles. The movement has pitched itself as a challenge to Iraq's entrenched elite and ridden popular protests over graft to drum up support. Under article 76 of Iraq's constitution, the right to form a government falls to the political bloc with the most seats. Sadr -- who has ruled himself out of becoming PM -- should be the key powerbroker and is already eyeing a coalition of around a dozen groups to reach a majority. However, with months of wrangling expected ahead, it remains far from certain that he will get the chance to realise his ambitions. At elections in 2010, the Iraqi National Movement of Ayad Allawi -- loathed by Iran -- scooped 91 seats to become the biggest group in parliament. But after much manoeuvring, Allawi was eventually bested by Nuri al-Maliki, as Tehran helped engineer a union between two leading Shiite blocs to give him more seats. - Cutting foreign influence? - Strengthened by his apparent victory in Saturday's polls, black-turbaned Sadr could now push his nationalist agenda that has seen him pledge to curb foreign meddling in Iraq. After the 2003 invasion, his militia battled US forces. He is now calling for the latest deployment of American troops to leave following last year's defeat of the Islamic State group. While his family of religious scholars historically has close ties with the Islamic revolutionaries in Iran and he spent years living there, Sadr has now fallen out with Tehran and wants its overbearing influence slashed. In a sign that he is angling to chart a different course, he visited regional Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia last year, as Tehran's rival seeks to play a greater role in Iraq. Sadr faces a difficult act to herd together enough groups from across Iraq's fragmented political spectrum to form a government. He has extended a hand to a wide spread of parties -- including the bloc of current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi that lies in third place according to latest results. Whether he can convince Abadi -- a key member of the establishment Dawa party that has dominated Iraq for years -- to turn his back on his former stablemates and team up remains a major question. Abadi -- who came to power in 2014 as IS rampaged across Iraq -- has balanced off the US and Iran during his time at the helm. On Tuesday, the prime minister called Sadr to congratulate him for the election victory, the cleric's office said. Sadr for now appears to be ruling out an alliance with two other powerful forces inside Iraq: the Iran-backed Conquest Alliance of former anti-IS paramilitary fighters and ex-premier Maliki. - Iran manoeuvres? - Any attempt to form a government that would threaten the influence Iran has built up in the 15 years since the fall of Saddam Hussein looks certain to face opposition from Tehran. Iraq's larger neighbour to the east has major leverage over many of the top Shiite politicians and it already seems like it may be looking to block Sadr's path to power. Political sources told AFP that two meetings have been held under Iranian guidance to bring together several political blocs. According to a participant, the aim has been to unite Abadi and Maliki -- bitter foes despite coming from the same Dawa party -- alongside the Conquest Alliance, which looks set to come second in the election. The initiative could trump Sadr's own coalition-building efforts but it risks angering the cleric's supporters who are yearning for a clampdown on corruption among establishment figures.
Iraq says election candidate killed in family dispute, after IS claim Baghdad (AFP) May 7, 2018 A parliamentary candidate was gunned down in northern Iraq Monday, with officials saying he was killed by his son in a family dispute after the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. Faruq Zarzur al-Juburi, 45, was shot dead at his home south of the city of Mosul at dawn, a local official told AFP, with the country on edge just days ahead of nationwide elections. The Islamic State group - which was forced out of Iraq only five months ago and has threatened the vote - quickly said it had a ... read more
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