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IRAQ WARS
Iraqi forces will need help to roll back militants: US
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) July 03, 2014


Iraq risks 'Syria-like chaos': UN envoy
Baghdad (AFP) July 03, 2014 - Iraq risks descending into "Syria-like chaos" if its political class fails to unite and agree on a government, the United Nations envoy to Baghdad told AFP on Thursday.

Nickolay Mladenov urged Iraq's leaders to press on with a political process that involves selecting a parliament speaker, a president and finally a prime minister, but admitted that tensions were worse than during the peak of the country's all-out sectarian war in 2006.

"If Iraq does not follow its constitutional political process, what is the alternative?" Mladenov said in an interview from his Baghdad office.

"It risks descending into a Syria-like chaos. And that is what people really need to understand, very very quickly."

The Bulgarian former foreign and defence minister said that if Iraq's leaders did not stick to established political processes, they were in "uncharted territories".

His remarks come with a jihadist-led offensive having overrun swathes of five provinces north and west of Baghdad, displacing hundreds of thousands of people and heaping pressure on incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Militants led by the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group overran the main northern city of Mosul on June 10, and then took control of several other towns and cities as the Iraqi security forces wilted.

Soldiers and policemen have since performed more capably, albeit with mixed results on offensive operations.

"Iraq will never be the same as before Mosul," Mladenov said. "There is no way that this country can go back."

Addressing the country's politicians, he said: "The writing is on the wall, so put your differences aside, your personal ambitions. There will be a time to deal with those later. Now is the time in which you need to figure out how to save the country."

The UN envoy's comments came just days after a farcical opening session of parliament following April elections which included lawmakers threatening each other, several walk-outs and confusion over key constitutional rules.

The session ended in disarray without MPs selecting a parliament speaker, and with a new meeting scheduled for July 8.

"They need to understand that the 8th of July deadline is really a deadline," Mladenov said.

The US military's top officer said Thursday that Iraqi forces had shored up their defenses against Sunni militants but would be hard-pressed to regain territory without outside help.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said American advisers were still evaluating the state of the Iraqi army, and he suggested US military action was not imminent.

Dempsey told a news conference that Iraqi forces were not yet in a position to stage a major counter-offensive after being driven back by Sunni extremists in recent weeks.

US military advisers in the capital found that Iraqi security forces are "stiffening, that they're capable of defending Baghdad," Dempsey said.

However, they also found the Iraqi forces "would be challenged to go on the offense, mostly logistically challenged."

"If you are asking me will the Iraqis, at some point, be able to go back on the offensive to recapture the part of Iraq that they've lost... probably not by themselves," he said.

But the Iraqi army's shortcomings did not necessarily mean the United States would have to take military action, he said.

"I'm not suggesting that that's the direction this is headed."

About 200 US military advisers have deployed to Baghdad to assess the state of the Iraqi army and the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) jihadists, who have seized control in areas north and west of Baghdad.

The advisory teams have set up command centers in Baghdad as well as in Arbil in the north, he said.

Apart from the advisers, nearly 500 US troops have been sent to Iraq to bolster security at the American embassy and parts of the Baghdad airport.

- 'Very different' US role -

Dempsey and Pentagon chief Chuck Hagel both insisted that the US troops in Iraq had no combat mission but left open the possibility that President Barack Obama might opt to order air strikes against the IS extremists in the future.

Dempsey said the role of American troops in Baghdad was "very different" than in the past, when US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and waged war against insurgents until withdrawing in 2011.

"I mean, assessing, advising and enabling are very different roads than attacking, defeating and disrupting," he said.

That could change if the threat posed by Sunni extremists led the US president to order military action, he said.

"I'm just suggesting to you we're not there yet," said Dempsey, who led combat troops during the US war in Iraq.

The four-star general said that future US military assistance might not require an "industrial-strength effort" to aid the Iraqi forces. Instead, smaller scale aid could be successful if Baghdad could isolate the IS jihadists from other Sunni groups.

He warned that an Iraqi military campaign designed to roll back the Islamist militants would take time to develop and would have to be accompanied by clear signals from the Shiite-led government in Baghdad that it is ready to reach out to Sunni and Kurdish communities.

Dempsey said "the first step in developing that campaign is to determine whether we have a reliable Iraqi partner that is committed to growing their country into something that all Iraqis will be willing to participate in.

"If the answer to that is 'no,' then the future's pretty bleak."

He said the IS extremists had prevailed not through military prowess but by exploiting the Sunni population's distrust and lack of confidence in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government.

The militants had "bought some people off, they threatened the families of others" and "they reminded everyone that the central government in Iraq was not operating on their behalf," Dempsey said.

The Iraq army "collapsed in the face of a future that didn't hold out any hope for them," he said.

The White House echoed Dempsey's call for unity on Thursday, offering a cool reception to a proposal by Iraq's Kurdish leader for an independence referendum.

The crisis in Iraq has created an unusual situation in which the United States and Iran are both supporting the same side in the conflict, with each lending aid to Baghdad.

Dempsey reiterated that there were no plans for US military cooperation with Tehran but said "it's not impossible that in the future we would... have reason to do so."

He acknowledged that Iran was flying drones over Iraq and that Tehran's activity in Iraq was "more overt" than in the past.

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