Using spent fuel rods now in storage, the communist state could process enough plutonium for one extra nuclear weapon within three to six months, they believe.

But it would take six months to one year to fully restore the ageing Yongbyon atomic complex and undo the disablement work already carried out under a 2007 six-nation disarmament deal.

North Korea, angry at UN censure of its April 5 rocket launch, announced Tuesday it was quitting the disarmament deal and would resume production of weapons-grade plutonium. It expelled UN and US nuclear monitors.

"Even if North Korea takes action tomorrow, it will take at least six months or one year to put the Yongbyon complex back on track," Cha Du-Hyeong of the state-run Korea Institute for Defence Analyses told AFP.

"The first step it can take is to extract spent fuel rods for reprocessing. It's a matter of weeks.

"However, the cooling tower must be rebuilt for the full activation of reprocessing facilities or to make more plutonium. Its reconstruction would require about six months."

Pyongyang blew up the cooling tower last June before international TV crews in a highly publicised affirmation of its commitment to nuclear disarmament.

Even when Yongbyon, whose reactor went into operation in 1987, was operating, experts assess it could produce only enough plutonium for one bomb a year.

"North Korea may take time, acting step by step and waiting for the chance to open talks with the United States," Cha said. "It may not rebuild the cooling tower if talks resume."

Kim Yong-Hyun, a North Korean studies professor at Seoul's Dongguk University, said it would take take six to 10 months to resume full production at Yongbyon assuming 70-80 percent of the disablement work had been completed.

"It depends on their will. If they were in a hurry, the period could be shortened to less than six months," he told AFP.

Kim said it was unclear whether the plutonium reprocessing plant was just sealed or completely disabled. "If it were just sealed, North Korea will be able to reactivate it very soon."

Otherwise, he said, it would take up to three months.

"North Korea's capacity to produce plutonium has been limited by old and low-yielding facilities," Kim said. "The complex is known to have produced only several kilograms of plutonium a year, enough for one experimental bomb."

In a February Congressional Research Service report, analyst Mary Beth Nikitin estimated it would take six to eight week to restart the reprocessing plant, and three to four months to reprocess spent fuel rods now in storage.

This would result in 7-8 kilos (15-18 pounds) of plutonium, enough for at least one weapon, she wrote.

Yongbyon was shut down in 1994 under a pact with the United States which collapsed in 2002. The North tested an atomic weapon in October 2006 but the complex was shut down again in July 2007 under the six-nation deal.

During Yongbyon's lifespan the North is estimated to have separated some 28-50 kilos of plutonium, enough for about five to 12 nuclear weapons, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said in 2007.

The departure of inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency sparked concerns about proliferation, but analysts said Pyongyang may not try to sell nuclear material to other countries.

"Exports of plutonium are technically impossible due to tight surveillance and sanctions by the international community. North Korea also regards its stockpile as a bargaining chip," Kim said.

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