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NKorea to exploit launch to bolster regime: analysts

Launch exposed limits of NKorea military: report
North Korea's rocket launch has exposed the limitations of its military with radar unable to track the object far enough, one ship breaking down and a warplane crashing, a report here said Tuesday. South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting intelligence sources, said the communist state had been unable to track the long-range rocket beyond a certain distance. "North Korea managed to launch a rocket, but Pyongyang's authorities were somewhat disorganised," one source told JoongAng. It said a ship which set sail for the Pacific to try to locate the rocket debris had to turn back due to mechanical problems. The paper also said a MiG-21 jet which was scrambled to protect the launch site crashed due to poor maintenance. Seoul had learned that North Korean officials involved were "busy passing the buck" over the mission's failure, it reported. "North Korea claimed it successfully put a satellite into orbit but it did not know where the projectile landed. That's because they had no radar capable of tracking it thousands of kilometres away," the conservative paper said. Seoul's defence ministry declined comment, a spokesman telling AFP that all he could confirm was that North Korean fighter jets had scrambled. The National Intelligence Service was not immediately available to comment. Defying international pressure, North Korea fired a rocket Sunday which it said put a communications satellite into orbit. Critics led by the United States however say it was a disguised long-range missile test, and have referred it to the UN Security Council. Despite Pyongyang's claims that the satellite is now orbiting Earth, South Korea, Japan, the US military and a senior Russian official say no such object has been detected in orbit. Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed test of a long-range missile, saying it appeared the second and third stages failed to separate and caused the rocket to crash into the Pacific short of the designated area. South Korean experts said the Taepodong-2 missile still travelled for some 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) -- double the range the North achieved in 1998 with a Taepodong-1 launch. North Korea's 1.2 million-strong military is the world's fifth largest. But analysts say the impoverished state has problems equipping it and even in some cases feeding soldiers. Yonhap news agency, quoting an unidentified Seoul official, said a North Korean commercial vessel departed for the Pacific to try to track the rocket and possibly retrieve debris but had to turn back. "We don't clearly know the mechanical problem that appears to have prevented the ship from sailing on. It likely has to do with outdated parts," the official was quoted as saying. (AFP image)
by Staff Writers
Seoul (AFP) April 7, 2009
Regardless of whether North Korea's rocket launch was a success or failure, analysts say the regime will spin the news to bolster support amid lingering uncertainty about the health of leader Kim Jong-Il.

Sunday's launch was "a great historic event heralding the victorious advent of a great prosperous and powerful nation," the ruling communist party newspaper Rodong Sinmun proclaimed Tuesday.

Blast-off came just four days before the first meeting Thursday of the country's new legislature, which will formally re-elect Kim to his top post.

The North says it put into orbit an experimental communications satellite, which is beaming "immortal revolutionary songs" in praise of founding president Kim Il-Sung and his son.

South Korea, Japan and the US military say no satellite has been detected in orbit. Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed test of a long-range missile, saying the second and third stages apparently failed to separate.

But very few people in the closed communist state will read their assessment.

"They (regime) can spin the story in all sorts of ways and misrepresent facts to their people," said Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.

While there could be soul-searching within the regime at the mission's apparent failure, he said, "it will be quite easy for them to depict it as a success to the vast majority of people."

Pyongyang is eager for a propaganda coup.

There are widespread reports Kim suffered a stroke last August. While apparently largely recovered, the incident has raised questions about who would succeed the 67-year-old.

North Korea is also seen as trying to strengthen its hand against Washington in future nuclear disarmament negotiations, but Pinkston and other analysts said domestic considerations were the main motive for the launch.

"It's increasingly clear the launch was driven by domestic considerations," said Peter Beck of the American University in Washington DC. "The regime wants to rally the cadres and the elite.

"Clearly, Kim Jong-Il knows the clock is ticking. For him, securing the succession is far more important than a nuclear deal."

Beck told AFP the launch, especially before one planned by South Korea in July, could be used to demonstrate "the vitality of the regime and a justification for family rule."

Yang Moo-Jin, professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said the regime "has succeeded in rallying its people and the elite and support for Chairman Kim Jong-Il."

Yang said it would also use its missile capability to strengthen its hand in future bilateral negotiations with Washington.

"But if Washington opts to get tougher with the North, Pyongyang will react accordingly, prepare for a second nuclear test and more rocket launches."

Beck said the launch would not in fact improve Pyongyang's negotiating position.

"It will drive Seoul into the arms of Washington and harden the Obama administration's approach to North Korea since it can't look too soft."

But he forecast that negotiations to free two US journalists detained for an alleged illegal border-crossing could give the two sides an opportunity to talk.

"Where you go from there is another question. At this point the North has proven not serious about negotiating, at least not serious about compromising," he said, adding he does not rule out a second nuclear test.

South Korean media and analysts have noted that while the launch was only a partial success, the Taepodong-2 missile still travelled some 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) -- twice as far as a Taepodong-1 in 1998.

"From North Korea's standpoint, the launch was a success as its ballistic missile range has been extended twofold now," said Kim Sung-Han, an international politics professor at Korea University.

He said the leadership would use it both to strengthen internal unity to support the regime and as a negotiating tactic.

Kim said the North, in a very unusual move, apparently Sunday notified the United States, Russia and China that blast-off was imminent.

"It unveiled its intention to negotiate the missile issue directly with the United States later."

The North, he said, hopes to put the six-party talks on a lower track while prioritising bilateral negotiations with Washington.

US seeks strong response to NKorea rocket launch
The United States pushed Tuesday for a strong UN response condemning North Korea's missile test, which a South Korean report said had exposed the limitations of the communist state's military.

The North says Sunday's launch put an experimental communications satellite into orbit, but Washington and its allies say the real purpose was to test a Taepodong-2 missile in defiance of United Nations resolutions.

With the UN Security Council in open disagreement on whether to punish the North, the United States hinted it may not insist on a binding resolution.

The Council adjourned Sunday after three hours of closed-door consultations with no accord on a response. Its members were to continue talks.

In New York, diplomats said China and Russia, which have veto power on the world body, have been pushing for a more muted response to the launch.

"We are actively involved in consultation with partners at the United Nations, members of the Security Council," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters.

"We know that working out the exact language is not easily done overnight, but we remain convinced that coming out with a strong position in the United Nations is the first and important step that we intend to take."

She did not specify the form of condemnation.

Earlier, a senior US official said on condition of anonymity that while the United States wanted a Security Council response, "the form of it is not what we should be hung up on."

Council resolutions are generally legally binding, but the 15-nation body can also issue non-binding presidential statements.

North Korea has hailed the launch, conducted in the teeth of international opposition, as the "proud fruit of our struggle to bring the nation's space technology to a higher level."

South Korea, Japan, the US military and a senior Russian official, however, say no satellite has been detected in orbit.

Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed long-range missile test. They say the second and third stages apparently did not separate and it crashed into the Pacific short of the designated area.

South Korean experts say the Taepodong-2 missile travelled 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) -- double the range the North achieved with a Taepodong-1 launch in 1998.

Still, the operation strained the resources of the massive but under-funded military, according to a South Korean newspaper.

JoongAng Ilbo, quoting intelligence sources, said Pyongyang had been unable to track the rocket beyond a certain distance while a ship which set sail for the Pacific to try to locate debris turned back with mechanical problems.

The paper also said a MiG-21 jet which was scrambled to protect the launch site crashed due to poor maintenance.

Seoul had learned that North Korean officials were "busy passing the buck" over the mission's failure, it said.

South Korea's defence ministry declined comment.

The Institute for Science and International Security, based in Washington, released satellite photographs Tuesday taken by DigitalGlobe, which showed the missile's exhaust plume and flames from burning propellant.

It said the images were taken a few kilometres away from the launch site at Musudan-ri on the northeast coast.

North Korea tested an atom bomb in 2006, but negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear weapons programme are currently bogged down by a disagreement over how to verify the process.

Washington has said the rocket launch was provocative -- "North Korea must know that the path to security and respect will never come through threats and illegal weapons," President Barack Obama warned Sunday -- but that its focus was on resuming the nuclear talks.

Susan Rice, US ambassador to the United Nations, told CNN "the aim must be to create a context in which we can pursue this critical long-term goal of denuclearising the Korean peninsula, which is necessary for security in that entire region and for international peace and security."

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Obama's crisis diplomacy hits North Korea hiccup
Washington (AFP) April 6, 2009
President Barack Obama's vaulting rhetoric over North Korea's missile launch ran into familiar resistance at the UN, exposing the cold reality confronting his vows of a new diplomatic dawn.







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