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Outside View: Questions for Obama
by Harlan Ullman
Washington (UPI) Mar 18, 2013


US spies learning lessons from Iraq WMD disaster
Washington (AFP) March 15, 2013 - US spy agencies still live under the shadow of disastrous intelligence failures that paved the way for the Iraq war, and now face a crucial test as they track Iran's nuclear program.

In the run-up to the invasion of Iraq 10 years ago, the CIA and other intelligence services confidently asserted that Saddam Hussein's regime had stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction.

Their findings backed up the White House's strongly-held conviction that Saddam was a menace who had to be toppled by force.

But it turned out the intelligence community was "dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction," according to an official inquiry, the Silberman-Robb report.

The spy services failed to collect solid information, botched their analysis and reached conclusions based on flawed assumptions instead of evidence, making it "one of the most public -- and most damaging -- intelligence failures in recent American history," the 2005 report said.

Despite a desperate search for Saddam's arsenal after the 2003 invasion, no weapons of mass destruction (WMD) were found, puncturing the whole case for the US-led war and igniting global outrage.

"This thing has done us lasting damage," said Brian Jenkins, a terrorism expert at the RAND Corporation think tank.

"It really significantly erodes the credibility of US intelligence in these areas," said Jenkins, a former Green Beret who has advised the government on security.

Since that humiliating episode, the country's 16 spy services have sought to bolster intelligence-gathering efforts around the world and added vetting procedures to their analysis to avoid any repeat of the Iraq experience, former CIA officials and analysts said.

"Lessons have been learned," said Paul Pillar, a former senior CIA analyst who oversaw intelligence on the Middle East.

Soon after the debacle over Saddam's weapons programs, the CIA and other agencies took steps to improve the screening of informers and added measures "to hold even senior intelligence managers' feet to the fire with regard to vouching for the credibility of source material," Pillar told AFP.

Two separate inquiries, one commissioned by the White House and another by Congress, blasted the intelligence services for failing to dig up inside information about the regime's weapons and for failing to question an array of assumptions.

And in its own internal review, only recently declassified, the CIA found that it had badly misread Saddam's intentions.

But some former spies and lawmakers say the intelligence agencies only deserve a portion of the blame, arguing that former president George W. Bush's deputies had made up their minds to invade regardless of what the spy services reported.

"To say that the whole process was impervious to the political climate is just not credible," Pillar said.

The Bush administration was accused of selecting information that would support their case for war and ignoring intelligence reporting that did not fit their view.

Official inquiries found that intelligence reporting had not been politicized, but the issue remains the subject of bitter debate 10 years on.

-- Tracking Iran's nuclear program --

Now, American spies are tracking another suspected weapons program -- in Iran.

Unlike with Saddam, UN inspectors have found ample evidence of ambitious uranium enrichment work in Iran.

But the US intelligence community, which believes Tehran has not yet made a decision to build a nuclear weapon, faces a similar challenge in trying to discern the Iranian leadership's intentions.

As U.S. President Barack Obama arrives in Israel for his first state visit, clearly Iran will dominate the agenda along with discussions over Syria, the Arab Spring and even the Palestinian issue (although Israeli settlements in occupied territories may be missing in action as too politically sensitive).

In last week's interview for Israeli television, Obama concluded that Iran was at least a year removed from achieving a useable nuclear weapon. The intent was to dampen any enthusiasm for an attack this year on the part of newly re-elected Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

And Obama's address to the Israeli public (and not the Knesset) will doubtlessly incorporate that argument.

Meanwhile, the political process in Washington over competing budgets remains deadlocked. A continuing resolution to keep government functioning through the end of this fiscal year, Sept. 30, 2013, may pass this week. But the divide between Republicans and Democrats over how best to grow the economy and deal with the federal debt appears unbridgeable.

Obama has adopted the Dick Cheney economic view that deficits don't count and that the nearly $17 trillion debt isn't an imminent danger. Hence, in the Democratic view, more and not less spending is the key to growth. And more spending will require more taxes presumably on the so-called rich.

Republicans say the opposite. Growth comes from creating jobs and, critically, a vibrant, productive and growing economy. Debts and deficits are huge matters especially when interest rates rise, which at some point they must and debt service will bust an already unbalanced budget.

Regarding Iran and foreign policy and the domestic economy, what questions might be put to Obama and his administration that haven't been asked and should be?

First, with respect to Iran, have we fully examined all the means for retarding or preventing enrichment of uranium to weapons standard short of a military strike?

We know that the majority of Iran's centrifuges are obsolete and Tehran is in the process replacement. We also know that the weakest link of any centrifuge is magnetic bearings vital to achieving sufficient centrifugal force required for enrichment. We also know that these bearings frequently burn out especially in old machines. If Iran is getting its magnetic bearings from external sources, can they be halted?

Second, the president says all options are on the table including (presumably in the last resort) military action. If all options are on the table, do they include containment? If not, then all options are NOT on the table.

Third, based on the United States' most recent uses of military force in Afghanistan and Iraq, is the president prepared to think the "unthinkable?" Obviously, surgical strikes that eliminate or at least delay Iran's nuclear programs substantially would top the options list if force were to be used. And equally obvious would be Iran's responses.

But suppose that such attacks that lasted days or a few weeks and targeted Iranian air defenses and naval forces as well as other possible military installations couldn't guarantee success to an acceptable level of confidence? Would the president seek first a resolution from Congress for using force or a declaration of war? Indeed, would the president consider an invasion and occupation of Iran to guarantee that Tehran would never field nuclear weapons? And if an invasion were politically impossible, would the president contemplate using nuclear weapons as the best or only guarantor of ending Iran's weapons ambitions?

Responses to these "unthinkable" questions won't arise as none is likely to be asked. However, if we are really serious about preventing Iran from achieving a real nuclear weapons capability, no question should be off the table.

Turning to the economy, the two overriding, interrelated requirements are job creation and economic growth. With diametrically opposed philosophies and a political system deadlocked by divided government, one obvious question that hasn't been addressed, must be asked and answered: Mr. President, why have you not embraced an infrastructure bank?

U.S. infrastructure, from bridges, roads, power grids to the Internet, is an embarrassment as well as danger to the nation.

An infrastructure bank of about $1-2 trillion would be financed by the private sector with bond issues at 3 or 4 percentage points above prime; paid for by user fees or real estate taxes as property values increase; and guaranteed by the government. This bank would create millions of jobs; repair and modernize this infrastructure; and most of all, stimulate and grow the economy. And it can be created through the already existing Export-Import Bank.

Whether these questions will arise in the first place is doubtful. Hence, no answers will be forthcoming. But that doesn't mean these questions shouldn't be asked in the first place.

(Harlan Ullman is chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of government and business, and senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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