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WAR REPORT
Outside View: The Syrian Sisyphus
by Harlan Ullman
Tallinn, Estonia (UPI) Sep 18, 2013


Germany defends 'dual-use' chemical exports to Syria
Berlin (AFP) Sept 18, 2013 - The German government on Wednesday defended granting permits around a decade ago for exports to Syria of chemicals that can be used to make deadly sarin gas.

The economy ministry said the export licences were granted between 2002 and 2006 for shipments totalling more than 100 tonnes of chemicals for both military and civilian use.

They received the green light after "careful examination of all possible risks, including abuse and diversion threats in view of their possible uses in connection with chemical weapons", the ministry said.

Ministry sources said the chemicals were "classic dual-use" products that could also be used in the surface treatment of metals, fluorination of drinking water and the manufacture of toothpaste.

UN chemical weapons inspectors reported this week that banned chemical weapons were used on a large scale in the Syrian civil war, and that evidence showed sarin gas killed hundreds in an opposition-held area near Damascus on August 21.

The UN report did not say who used the sarin gas, though the Syrian opposition and its allies have blamed President Bashar al-Assad's troops. The United States claims more than 1,400 people died in the attack and has threatened to attack Assad's regime.

The German ministry conceded that chemicals that could potentially be used to make sarin had been exported, responding to a question in parliament by the far-left Linke opposition party.

"In all these cases a plausible case was made for their civilian use," the ministry said. "The evaluation of all the available information before the permits were issued led to no evidence of military use that would have justified a refusal of the permission."

It added that the "government has no information to suggest the delivered goods have since then been used for anything other than the stated civilian purposes."

Linke party lawmaker Jan van Aken suggested that the government had been grossly irresponsible.

"I really can't believe it," he told ARD public television. "Germany over many years delivered more than 111 tons of chemicals with which one can produce sarin to Syria, a country known to be operating a chemical weapons programme."

The military threat against Syria's regime has eased after Russia and the United States agreed on a plan to put Syrian chemical arms under international control.

Syrian officials have denied using sarin gas and Russia said Wednesday Damascus had given it evidence that the rebels were behind the August 21 attack.

The framework for elimination of Syrian chemical weapons agreed to last week by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov could, and could is the operative word, potentially become the most stunning geostrategic event in global security since Richard Nixon's outreach to China and the demise of the Soviet Union.

But make no mistake: Even if the agreement holds, hard, if not seemingly impossible work, lies ahead to realize this extraordinary opportunity. However, the United States, Russia and other partners would be derelict not to make every effort and then some to eliminate in a verifiable and effective way Syrian chemical weapons.

Consider some of the Sisyphean labors that lie ahead:

First, securing and then disposing these weapons is complicated and dangerous exacerbated by the raging Syrian civil war. Elements within the Assad regime will oppose losing this counterweight to Israel's nuclear weapons. Al-Qaida, al-Nusra Front, Hezbollah and other extremist groups will attempt to seize or attack these weapons and facilities. And the Free Syrian Army, angry that the United States hasn't struck Syria's military to weaken it, isn't necessarily going to cooperate as fully as it might.

All this means that "boots on the ground" will be needed if the Syrian army cannot provide security because it is consumed with fighting a civil war.

Who then will provide security and accept the risk of taking casualties from both friendly and unfriendly fire? And what outsiders might be acceptable to the Syrian regime for this purpose?

Further, the logistics of disposal are incredibly difficult. Russia or some other state may elect to receive the materials for disposal. Destruction, however, will require years as well as significant amounts of money.

And in getting these weapons to their final destination, transportation from their storage sites in Syria to embarkation points whether by road or air is subject to attack and human error.

Second, the Obama administration must reconcile contradictions in its convoluted policies toward Syria. U.S. President Barack Obama has made it clear that Syrian President Bashar Assad must go. If media reports are correct, the CIA is arming the "moderate" opposition.

But what is the higher priority: eliminating chemical weapons or forcing Assad to leave office? Both cannot be achieved concurrently because without Assad's cooperation, there is no chance that chemical weapons can be secured peacefully.

And no matter which priority the U.S. president chooses, he will be savaged by former supporters who called for military strikes and the end of the regime and by opponents who distrust the Russians and also argue for Assad's departure.

Third, many bureaucracies will be engaged including the national security councils of the United States and Russia, the United Nations, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and among others the Syrian government. Hence, delays and administrative obstacles could be huge. Cutting through them as Alexander slashed the Gordian Knot or circumventing these potential impediments will be essential to ensure that disposal proceeds at a timely pace.

Fourth, who will be in charge of the operations and logistics not the least of which is providing security for the inspectors and for those who will initially take charge of the storage and production sites during this process? Similarly, who will pay for this disposal as the costs could run in the tens and possibly hundreds of billions of dollars?

And using the U.S. example in which destruction of its stockpile of chemical weapons, admittedly dozens of times larger than Syria's, hasn't been completed, what realistic schedule can be set to assure final disposition of these materials?

Devils and details always coexist and usually unhappily. Given the pressures that demand quick resolution of these complex and knotty issues to contain or diffuse powerful political forces working against this process, at least in initial planning, a central group must be empowered now to begin that work. And bringing in other participants with skills that can expedite this effort is also essential.

NATO may or may not have a role to play. Ditto for the European Union. But we know, for example, that Romania has unique access in Syria for a number of reasons, including a sizable emigre population living there, and Germany's private sector has extensive experience in disposal of chemical weapons of the former Soviet Union. And regional states including Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and possibly Iran must be consulted as well as China.

The ends of eliminating Syrian chemical weapons demand maximum effort to achieve success. While the U.S. use of force remains in play, should this process fail and a strike follows, as Russian President Vladimir Putin rightly predicts, then the Syrian situation will become a disaster if not a catastrophe. So, press on; press on!

(Harlan Ullman is senior adviser at the Atlantic Council in Washington and chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of business and government.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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