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SKorea, US troops raise alert after NKorean threat

NKorea blast likely less powerful than hoped: expert
The atomic bomb which North Korea tested Monday was probably less powerful than hoped because it was detonated incorrectly, according to one expert citing seismic data. The explosive, while larger than the first test in October 2006, was still far short of the expected yield of a crude Hiroshima-type bomb, according to Jeffrey Park, director of the Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies. "More than likely this means North Korea tried and failed to get a simple plutonium bomb to detonate correctly," Park wrote in an article on the website of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Park said most estimates of the Richter magnitude were in the low half of the 4.5-5 range "so it seems likely that the yield was four kilotons or smaller." While that was much larger than the 2006 test, it still fell far short of an expected 12-20 kiloton yield of a crude Hiroshima-style device, Park wrote. "For comparison's sake, the first nuclear tests of all other nations that are self-announced members of the nuclear club had larger yields than this latest North Korean test." Park said that compared to bomb technology based on uranium 235, "building a plutonium-based bomb represents a technical challenge because the critical mass can blow apart in a split second before the detonation reaches max efficiency." Even an inefficient nuclear weapon is "nothing to dismiss," Park said. "But one should be mindful of the technical challenges North Korea still faces in carrying out the threats implied by its deliberate pairing of its explosive test with test missile launches." Other experts have also estimated the power of Monday's underground blast at around four kilotons, or 4,000 tons of TNT, compared to less than one kiloton for the first test.
by Staff Writers
Seoul (AFP) May 28, 2009
South Korea and the United States put their troops on higher alert in the Korean peninsula Thursday after the North said it was ending a truce in force for half a century and warned of a possible attack.

Seoul's defence ministry said air and ground forces were keeping a closer watch on the tense land and sea border with the communist North after Pyongyang said it was abandoning the armistice signed to end the Korean War in 1953.

Tensions have risen sharply since North Korea Monday tested a nuclear bomb believed to be about four times more powerful than the one it detonated in 2006. It followed up by test-firing five short-range missiles.

"We are maintaining a tight defence posture to prevent the North's military provocations," said ministry spokesman Won Tae-Jae. "The military will deal sternly with provocative acts."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the United States and other members of the UN Security Council were mulling "possible sanctions" against Pyongyang, in the first such on the record comment from a US official.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs added that Beijing, considered a key player in the showdown with Pyongyang due to its supposed leverage over its reclusive ally, was being "very helpful" in efforts to censure the North.

At the United Nations, ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus South Korea and Japan discussed how to censure the North for its nuclear test, but apparently without making any breakthrough.

"This is quite a complicated discussion," Britain's UN Ambassador John Sawers told reporters after the meeting. "We're looking forward to continuing our work. We need some time."

Russia's UN ambassador, the council chair this month, said the group needed some time to reflect on specific elements of the resolution. A meeting by the full 15-member Security Council on the draft was not expected until next week.

The text of the resolution, being drafted by Japan and the United States, leaves out details of a key paragraph on possible, additional sanctions that would be slapped on Pyongyang.

A Western diplomat earlier said proposals included extending the list of entities targeted for travel bans or financial sanctions, a broader arms embargo, tougher inspections of cargo, a freeze on North Korean assets abroad and denial of access to international banking and financial services.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had earlier stressed Washington's resolve to defend Japan and South Korea amid what the White House called North Korean "sabre-rattling and bluster."

"I want to underscore the commitment the United States has, and intends always to honour, for the defence of South Korea and Japan," Clinton said.

The US headed a UN command that fought for the South in the 1950-53 war and still stations 28,500 troops in South Korea.

Pyongyang said its decision to pull out of the truce that ended the Korean War was prompted by Seoul's decision to join the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative, designed to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

This can involve stopping and searching ships, although the South has said North Korean merchant ships can still cross its sea borders under a 2005 accord.

The North described Seoul's decision as akin to a declaration of war and said its military would no longer be bound by the armistice.

"Any tiny hostile acts against our republic, including the stopping and searching of our peaceful vessels... will face an immediate and strong military strike in response," it said.

It was the fifth time in 15 years that the North has threatened to tear up the armistice, according to the White House.

"We're certainly concerned and take any threat seriously," said White House spokesman Gibbs. "But my sense is they're trying to get renewed attention through sabre-rattling and bluster and threats."

Professor Kim Yong-Hyun of Seoul's Dongguk University said the North was likely to follow up by firing short-range missiles or shells into the Yellow Sea, or by seizing South Korean fishing boats near the disputed border.

"We're watching a game of chicken being played on the Korean peninsula," Kim told journalists.

The North's policy has become noticeably harder-line since last summer when leader Kim Jong-Il, now 67, reportedly suffered a stroke.

Several analysts believe Kim staged the test to shore up his authority as he puts his succession plans in place.

After the Security Council censured its April 5 rocket launch and tightened existing sanctions, the North said it was quitting nuclear disarmament talks and would restart its Yongbyon atomic facility and conduct more missile and nuclear tests.

Many experts believe however it is still some way from being able to deliver a nuclear bomb by missile.

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China finding it harder to support NKorea: analysts
Beijing (AFP) May 28, 2009
China has long been the main ally of North Korea, but as it assumes a greater role in international affairs, Beijing will find it more difficult to defend the isolated regime, analysts say. North Korea's nuclear test this week and its threat to attack US and South Korean ships has infuriated the international community, which leaves China with less room to stand by Pyongyang's side, they say ... read more







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