South Pacific island nations, particularly Fiji and Tonga, face a rough cyclone season in the coming months, a senior New Zealand climate scientist warned Thursday. Jim Salinger, of New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa), said weak to moderate El Nino conditions were likely to increase the chances of tropical cyclone activity.
"We are likely to see above average numbers of tropical cyclones in several parts of the South Pacific," he said.
Island nations to the east of the dateline, including Fiji, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, and the southern Cook Islands were identified as those likely to be most seriously affected.
"There is a good chance that the first tropical cyclone of the coming season in the South Pacific region may occur before the end of November, about a month earlier than is normal," he said.
Salinger said about 10 tropical cyclones can be expected on average in the Southwest Pacific during a weak El Nino season, with about half reaching hurricane force with mean wind speeds at least 118 kilometres an hour (73 mile per hour).
Last year saw cyclones Larry and Monica wreak havoc in Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia.
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