"Any tactical or defensive move by one side may be perceived as a strategic threat by the other and trigger an explosion," said noted defence analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi.

"It is a very, very dangerous standoff. Guns may start roaring any time unless the world powers and the United Nations use their good offices to perform a diplomatic miracle by defusing tension," Rizvi said.

"The world powers should convince India that Pakistan is already taking measures to restrain the militant Islamic groups and therefore a dialogue on the contentious issues will be desirable."

As both armies mounted build-ups along the border, India raised the stakes Thursday by imposing diplomatic and aviation sanctions against Pakistan, which swiftly ordered a matching response.

The tit-for-tat measures included banning each other's airlines from their skies, slashing the strength of embassies in New Delhi and Islamabad by half and restricting the movement of diplomats and staff within the capitals.

The crisis erupted after the December 13 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament which killed 14 people, including the five attackers.

New Delhi blamed the attack on two Pakistan-based militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba and demanded that Islamabad shut down the outfits and arrest their leaders.

Pakistan has detained Jaish leader Maulana Mazood Azhar, frozen Lashkar's assets, and offered to cooperate if India provides concrete evidence through a joint probe into the incident. India has rejected the moves as "cosmetic."

"A military showdown looks inevitable," said independent defence analyst and commentator M.A. Niazi.

"India is bent upon it and it is going to be a showdown. Soon Pakistan will have to choose between the paths of over-caution and restraint and that of retaliation."

Niazi said he thought India would take some military action, in the form of missile strikes across the disputed border in Kashmir, which would make it difficult for Pakistan to formulate a response.

"If India raids across the Line of Control in Kashmir but does not occupy territory it would put Pakistan in an awkward position," he said.

India is attempting to push Pakistan into a situation where it must publicly take action against alleged terrorist organizations operating from Pakistan and the portion of Kashmir it controls, he said.

"The Indians are adamant that Pakistan proceed against alleged terrorists in full view of the world and that it should also be seen as repenting its support for the freedom movement in Indian-occupied Kashmir."

Noted scientist and father of India's missile system, Abdul Kalam, speaks to the press during his farewell as he steps down as Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government in New Delhi 12 November 2001. The architect of India's ballistic missile programme said New Delhi had better safety standards for its nuclear weapons than many nations and that its growing arsenal includes the hydrogen bomb. AFP Photo by Prakash Singh - Copyright 2001

India wants to take advantage of the global focus on the issue of terrorism to corner Pakistan over its support for the Kashmiri "freedom struggle" and thus pave the way for a "more repressive" campaign to crush the 12-year-old Muslim separatist drive, he said.

Official sources said Pakistan was preparing for the worst while making every effort at the international diplomatic level for help in defusing the crisis.

"The US and other powers are urging both countries to exercise restraint, but they have to do more than that and take up the matter forcefully with India as they are solely responsible for the current explosive situation," a government official said.

Top Pakistani military spokesman Major General Rashid Qureshi said the deployment of forces on the borders had established a "certain momentum."

"It seems that the Indian government is putting itself into a corner where I think it would difficult for them now to back off," Qureshi told a briefing.

Asked if the two countries are closer to war, he said: "Any deployment in excess of what is required on the border and the Line of Control will be seen as a threat by the other country."

All rights reserved. � 2001 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

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