United Press International's Berlin correspondent Stefan Nicola spoke to Rolf Tophoven, Germany's leading terrorism expert, who says the situation in the Middle East -- and especially in Afghanistan -- has reached a crucial juncture.

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Nicola: How has terrorism changed since Sept. 11? Are there new targets, new recruiting methods, new strategies?

Rolf Tophoven: Al-Qaida now has a ghost army in many European cities. They are not those who fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and not the ones in the terror camps in the Hindu Kush in the 1990s, where up to 30,000 Arabic men were trained. They are the third generation of al-Qaida fighters. Often, they stem from immigrant circles or migrant families. They live quiet, independent lives right in the middle of our society.

Only their ideology still links them to Osama bin Laden; they emerge out of their hiding only for the enactment of the attack. In Germany and most of Western Europe, the recruiting does not mainly happen in mosques anymore, because people know they may be observed. It has moved into the underground, into private circles, where two or three people meet in an apartment to plan an attack.

Maybe the most important recruitment tool today is the Internet, which is used for propaganda and inciting purposes. The Web has turned into something like the University of Jihad -- it has become a virtual self-service shop of Islamist terror.

UPI: The conflict in the Middle East is dominating the global political scene. Do you think it will further fuel Islamist terrorism?

Tophoven: The unresolved issues in the Middle East, mainly between Israel, the Palestinians and the Muslim world, are stirring up emotions all over the world, which more often lead to justification attacks. The conflict is increasingly exploited: Bin Laden, for example, has long been silent when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But after Sept. 11, he has always in his video messages pointed to the fate of the Palestinians, and ignited Muslims to wage the holy war, to wage Jihad against the non-believers and the Jews.

One always easily says that if this conflict is resolved, if the other conflicts, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, in the Balkans, are resolved, then we will wipe out terrorism, as (U.S. President George W.) Bush always says.

But I say it is impossible to eradicate terrorism 100 percent. Of course, solving the conflict in the Middle East would be a great element to fight terrorism. It would take away one justification. But there is still a long way until that happens.

UPI: Hamas and Hezbollah, two groups the United States and Europe classify as terrorist organizations, are key players in the conflict. How do they differ from al-Qaida?

Tophoven: Hamas and Hezbollah are locally or regionally focused groups. Hamas has not launched any attacks outside the Middle East. In the 1990s, Hezbollah targeted embassies and educational institutions in Buenos Aires (Argentina), so it attacked on the periphery, but it largely concentrates on the conflict at home.

Al-Qaida, on the other hand, is consciously trying to act on a global level. Hezbollah also has a second function because it is in the Beirut parliament: On the one hand terror organization, on the other hand a political group and a welfare organization.

Despite their recent election victory, Hamas still has to find itself a position in the political realm. Their unwillingness to accept Israel's right to exist could eventually be harmful for them -- or even deadly.

UPI: The recent weeks have seen an increased level of violence in Afghanistan, where the ISAF is facing almost daily attacks. How would you characterize the situation there?

Tophoven: I think the development in Afghanistan now is at a tipping point, it could go either way. The Taliban have come back better equipped. Taliban leader Mullah Omar had sent guerrilla experts into Iraq to wage war there -- they received further training and have been funneled back into Afghanistan with their new know-how. We know that because of the type of bombs now used there, and the types of ambushes that are set. The Taliban now fight against battalion-sized international units.

They are better coordinated than during their loss against the U.S. immediately after Sept. 11. And they have brought back new strategies: The phenomenon of the suicide bombing has been imported from Iraq. Today, like fish in a huge sea, they are able to submerge unrecognized into the population in the south and southeast of the country.

Their goal is the disruption, the destabilization of Afghanistan. A classic example: They approach a school teacher and tell him: 'If you don't close the school tomorrow then you're dead.' And the teacher understands and closes the school. They repeatedly torpedo the help of the West.

The situation in Afghanistan is now at a watershed point. Only to highlight Kabul as a positive example would be wrong, because if you leave the city you have to expect the worst.

UPI: In nearby Iraq, the violence continues. It seems the United States is unable to defeat the insurgency there. Would it help if they left the country?

Tophoven: I don't think so, although that theory has been developed. America's big tactical mistake has been that they had no real political concept for Iraq after the swift defeat of Saddam Hussein. This has led to daily scenes of terror, chaos and violence. Every day, we are faced with a terrorist body count.

The country is far from being at peace. And it's not only Islamist insurgents that do the killings; it's more and more the Sunni opposition. Iraq is on its way to a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis, if the war has not already started. The recent incidents during the Shiite religious festival, where Sunni snipers shot randomly into the crowd shows it's an inner-political struggle for power that the allied forces can hardly pacify.

As for the insurgency -- as long as Western forces are still in Iraq, the terrorists are confronted every day with the image of the enemy. On the other hand, if the Americans left the country, the showdown would only intensify. Maybe there is only one chance: Building up a strong Iraqi army that can restore order in the country to then pull put. But I doubt that will happen anytime soon.

UPI: Did the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi weaken al-Qaida in Iraq?

Tophoven: It was definitely a good intelligence operation, especially from the Jordanians, who gave key tips where to find him. Psychologically, it was an important success in the fight against terror. Zarqawi was the actionist mastermind, the head of terrorism in Iraq. He saw himself as the extended arm of bin Laden in Iraq and this arm has been cut off now.

However, it did not lead to a significant weakening of his network, the daily attacks prove that. And that al-Qaida has rather quickly named a successor to Zarqawi proves the claim bin Laden once made, that 'every one of us is replaceable.' They have established a well-functioning terror network in Iraq.

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