One expert in Russian affairs did see this crisis coming, however. "This escalation of the conflict was entirely predictable," said Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow on Russian and Eurasian affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Not since the days of the Cold War have tensions between the United States and Russia been so high. In recent weeks Russian and U.S. naval war vessels have been engaging in perilous maneuverings in the Black Sea, a relatively constrained inland body of water.

"What we have today has nothing to do with the Cold War," said Antonenko.

The crisis in the Caucasus, triggered by the Republic of Georgia's military intervention in the breakaway autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, bears no comparison to the Cold War, nor is it a revival of the Cold War, said several experts speaking last week at the Global Strategic Review conference in Geneva, Switzerland.

The East-West crisis that ensued the day after Russia rushed to the rescue of the two rebel republics was further amplified by the fact that two completely opposing views of the conflict were presented in the Western and Russian media. Adding to the seriousness of the crisis was the tardiness of Western nations in replying to the urgency of the unfolding events -- a crisis that should have been on the radar screens of Western intelligence services but was not.

The crisis broke out on the morning of Aug. 7, one day before the Olympic flame was lit in Beijing's new Olympic stadium. Some analysts say the date and time chosen by the Georgian president to launch his offensive was no coincidence. Indeed, Georgia chose the date carefully, assuming -- wrongly, one may add -- that with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin attending the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Summer Olympics, Georgian forces would gain a little more crucial time to complete their incursions into Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Antonenko says, "There is no doubt that the current crisis began on Aug. 7 when Georgia attacked South Ossetia. It was 11 p.m. Beijing time, where Putin was at the time."

The international response, however, did not come for several hours.

Putin related to Antonenko, when she met the Russian prime minister a few days ago, a conversation he had with President George W. Bush, who was also attending the opening ceremonies of the Summer Games. The conversation took place shortly after the outbreak of hostilities in the Caucasus.

Putin says that at 10 a.m., several hours after the start of the attack, he telephoned Bush, told him about what had transpired and asked that the president intervene with the Georgians, with whom the United States enjoys close and cordial relations.

According to Putin, Bush replied that "nobody wants war." But when the two leaders met nine hours later, Putin asked Bush what he had done. The answer was "nothing."

Putin said he was "shocked."

While the West delayed in intervening, the Georgians meanwhile used overwhelming force in a war that was completely unjustified, said Antonenko.

And just as predictable was Russia's heavy-handed reply when it sent its far superior military into the breakaway republics but did not stop there. Russian forces pushed into Georgian territory proper.

Russia, however, says Antonenko, had a much wider agenda in its intervention. Moscow clearly wanted to send a message not only to other republics that may have similar intentions, but also to Washington, which the Russians saw as gradually infringing on their former domains. Clearly, there are a number of issues that riled Moscow, such as Washington installing missiles in the Czech Republic and a radar system in Poland, NATO's expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries and plans to include Georgia and Ukraine.

But if the Georgians went too far in their armed actions in the Caucasus, so too did the Russians. The victims of this war were many, even though the actual combat operations were short.

"Casualties have been very significant," said Antonenko. About 115,000 people were displaced by the violence. In South Ossetia 30,000 people fled. In Georgia 120,000 were displaced; 60,000 are still refugees.

And it's not only militarily that Russia committed errors. Analysts believe Moscow also made some very big mistakes politically. In recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russians, said Antonenko, "made the most strategic mistake."

Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, agrees that the crisis in the Caucasus has caused Russia to lose some of its international moral ground.

But he said the Russians are simply exercising their own version of the Monroe Doctrine.

Ischinger also believes that what is happening between Russia and the United States is "certainly no Cold War."

However, a U.S. government official, who asked not to be mentioned by name, told this correspondent, "If it smells like a Cold War and it looks like a Cold War, what else do you call it when you have Russian and American warships looking at each other down the barrels of their 16-inch guns?"

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

(e-mail: [email protected])

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