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Analysis: Germany to stay in Middle East

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Stefan Nicola
Berlin (UPI) Nov 5, 2007
Germany is not presenting exit strategies for its stability missions in Lebanon and Afghanistan, despite worsening security in the region. The German public, it seems, will have to get used to several more years of military contributions in the region.

A construction project at the German base in Mazar-i-Sharif demonstrates the updated German security strategy for Afghanistan. Instead of tents, the German armed forces are building solid steel halls for its six Panavia Tornado jet planes. The planes, in the country since April, with reconnaissance flights help the international forces in their battle against the Taliban.

Last month the Tornado mission (one of three German mission mandates in Afghanistan) was extended for another year, but officials in Germany have carefully begun to get the country in the mood for a lengthy stay in Afghanistan.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung recently said the international coalition would have to stay in Afghanistan for several more years, a period experts estimate at roughly a decade -- no wonder the Germans are getting rid of their tents.

Because the temporary construction makes room for a permanent one, German news magazine Der Spiegel said that this points to an open-ended mission in Afghanistan. Berlin has brushed that away as "pure speculation," but experts are convinced that exactly that is the case.

Germany has more than 3,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan as part of the NATO-led, U.N.-mandated International Security Assistance Force; the entire mission costs run at more than $700 million a year.

Roughly 500 soldiers run and maintain the six Tornado jets, and some 100 soldiers take part in the U.S.-led anti-terror mission Operation Enduring Freedom, but they are hardly ever called into action.

Nevertheless, the OEF mission is especially controversial in Germany, a nation whose soldiers are tasked mainly with reconstruction efforts in the northern provinces of the country. The OEF mandate is up for extension in Parliament this Thursday, and observers expect a close vote, especially as news of kidnappings and suicide bombings increase in numbers in Afghanistan. The mounting violence has chipped away support among Germany's population.

While six out of 10 Germans used to back the Afghanistan mission in 2005, a poll by census group Forsa for German news magazine Stern in September found that more than half of Germans want Berlin to bring home all of its troops. Yet the grand coalition government of German Chancellor Angela Merkel is determined to stay the course in Afghanistan, also because it wants to solidify its role as a major player in the region.

This past weekend Merkel embarked on an unannounced yet much called-for trip to Afghanistan -- her first visit to the country since she became chancellor in late 2005. The opposition had criticized Merkel for skipping Afghanistan in favor of more glamorous destinations, blaming her for what it saw as an unwillingness to associate herself with the worsening security in the country.

It nevertheless came as a complete surprise when the media reported that Merkel's plane had touched down in Kabul on Saturday; the visit was probably the most secret and most secure of any German official in a foreign country.

Protected by U.S. military choppers and a bullet- and splinter-proof vest, Merkel during her 24-hour visit met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, U.N. Special Representative Tom Koenigs and U.S. Gen. Dan McNeill, the commander of the ISAF forces. Merkel also visited a girls' school in Kabul before heading to Mazar-i-Sharif to meet with the 1,400 German troops stationed there.

Merkel promised Karzai that Germany will extend its efforts to train Afghan police and unmistakably underscored that Germany won't send its troops to the volatile southern provinces, except when ISAF members need help in cases of emergency.

It was an emergency last year when Germany agreed to send its soldiers into the heart of the Middle East -- a region the country has stayed out of since World War II. Yet just as in Afghanistan, the German contribution to the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon is likely going to become a long-term one.

Germany will not end the UNIFIL naval mission until peace is achieved in the Middle East, German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung said last week in Beirut.

Germany currently heads the seven-nation UNIFIL naval force tasked with securing the Lebanese coast with two frigates, a supply ship and two speed boats. The country has more than 800 soldiers patrolling the seas for weapons smuggling and other illegal activities that could disturb the peace process. German lawmakers in September extended the mission -- the first German contribution to the Middle East since World War II -- for one more year, yet given the gloomy outlook for peace in the Middle East, more years will likely follow.

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