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Analysis: Iran faces ultimatum on nukes

Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator.
by Claude Salhani
Washington (UPI) Jul 21, 2008
A two-week clock began ticking down the minutes Sunday after the Western powers' negotiating team, led by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, failed to reach an agreement with their Iranian counterparts over the nuclear issue.

Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, joined Solana in describing their latest round of negotiations, held in Geneva over the weekend, as "constructive," despite the fact that Solana regretted that Tehran had still not given a final response.

Solana, speaking on behalf of the Western powers, is reported to have offered Iran a major incentive package, hoping it would incite Iran to renounce its nuclear aspirations. And for the first time the United States was represented at the talks, by its third most senior diplomat. This also marks the first time that Washington participated in direct contact with Tehran over its controversial nuclear issue.

Among the conditions insisted upon by Iran is for the Western powers to refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Tehran. In return for the freezing of additional sanctions, Iran would promise to refrain from installing any more uranium-enriching centrifuges.

Russia, speaking through its deputy foreign minister, Sergei Kislyak, who attended the Geneva talks, said it is also seeking an answer within a two-week timeframe, according to RIA Novosti.

Even Iran's maverick president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, held back on his usual rhetoric and described the talks as a "step forward." That did not prevent the United States from issuing a warning to Iran that the Islamic Republic would face "confrontation" if it failed to suspend enriching uranium.

Addressing the Iranian people, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that the United States hopes "the Iranian people understand that their leaders need to make a choice between cooperation, which would bring benefits to all, and confrontation, which can only lead to further isolation." There is, however, no guaranteeing his message would get across to the people of Iran.

Yet despite signs of optimism, as feeble as they might be, the two sides appear to be engaged in a dialogue of the deaf. In spite of the ongoing negotiations, the Iranian side has made it abundantly clear it has no intention of freezing its uranium-enrichment program. This was repeated multiple times by Iranian officials. And that is the central point of any ongoing negotiations with Tehran.

Western powers and Israel fear that once Tehran reaches the point where it can produce nuclear weapons, it would be in a position to follow up on multiple threats made by the Islamic Republic against the Jewish state. Repeated denials from Iran that it is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and that its nuclear program is intended solely for civilian ends, such as to provide electric energy, have not been taken seriously by the West and even less so by Israel.

It is hardly a secret that Israel has been practicing how to take out the primary Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, it is no secret that an Israeli attack on Iran would be perceived, not only by Iranians but by much of the Muslim world, as having been approved by Washington. In the eyes of the Arab and Muslim world, it would matter very little if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites with or without the approval of the United States. The concept that Israel acted unilaterally and without prior approval from the White House would be inconceivable in most Arab capitals.

The immediate effect of air raids against Iran's nuclear installations would very likely be to trigger a new wave of attacks against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. If that were to happen, the timing could not be worse, as the relative calm that has begun settling in Iraq over the last several weeks would be shattered before the first wave of attack planes were to return to base.

With just over 180 days left for the Bush administration, which will vacate the White House leaving behind two unfinished wars -- Afghanistan and Iraq -- starting a third one with Iran in the waning days of the administration would be outright foolhardy. President Bush expected a quick, short war in Iraq, and now more than five years later the conflict in Iraq is far from over. As for Afghanistan, now in its seventh year of turmoil since the United States overthrew the Taliban, the Islamists appear to be making a comeback, stepping up attacks against government troops and foreign coalition forces.

Given the recent (and not so recent) history of Western military involvement in the Middle East, there is perhaps a very good reason why there is no English word for "blitzkrieg."

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

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US warns Iran as nuclear talks yield no deal
Geneva (AFP) July 19, 2008
World powers' latest bid to make Iran halt its nuclear programme stalled Saturday as high-level talks involving US and Iranian officials ended without a deal and Washington warned of possible further "confrontation."







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