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Analysis: Iraq girds for landmark vote
Baquba, Iraq (UPI) Jan 28, 2009 The stage is set in Iraq for landmark balloting Saturday that will reshape provincial governments and indicate the strength or weakness of the country's fledgling democracy. At stake are 440 seats on provincial councils, or legislatures, in 14 of 18 provinces and the governorships those bodies will select. But also in the mix is the country's new post-surge stability. Will the vote be sectarian? Will al-Qaida and other extremist groups try to disrupt the process? Will the results of the balloting lead to an explosion of renewed sectarian violence and undo the gains made in law and order? These are questions that can only be answered in the days and weeks ahead. "Al-Qaida, the enemy, the opponent, obviously has a vote," Col. Burt Thompson, commander of the 25th Infantry Division's 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, said in Baquba. "And he will look for those critical (security) vulnerabilities, if he can find them, and he'll try to exploit those." Thompson and his men are based in the capital of Diyala province, one of the country's most volatile and important regions. It lies northeast of Baghdad. Iran is on one of its borders, and Diyala is a transit point for terrorists and weapons entering or leaving Baghdad or moving farther north into Ninawa province. As many as 60 percent of Diyala's 1.8 million people are Sunni Arabs -- the sect that benefited under the rule of Saddam Hussein -- but have been marginalized politically in the province. In national elections in 2005 many Sunnis boycotted the balloting in protest against the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Some here have argued they didn't vote because of threats from al-Qaida, which already had gained a foothold in the region. But no matter the reason, the boycott resulted in Diyala's Shiites, the largest minority, gaining control of the reins of government and the perks and largesse that control provides. Shiites dominate the provincial council. Shiites dominate provincial government departments and agencies. Shiites are the overwhelming majority in the police forces. Now that is about to change. In cities, towns and villages across this agricultural region Sunnis say there will be no boycott this time. "We hope everybody understands Iraq is for everybody," Iraqi Police Maj. Amad Ahmed Mohammed, who is of mixed sectarian heritage, said of the impending vote and results. In Diyala province 29 provincial council seats are up for grabs. The number was reduced from more than 40 current seats as a result of a new national legislation. A complicated system will allocate those seats proportionally among the many candidates -- independent, members of specific parties or political blocs -- on the basis of the number of votes received with an eye to sectarian or ethnic demographics. So even with a Sunni landslide, the Diyala legislature would still have Shiite members as well as Kurds, who are the majority population in the province's northernmost area. In this election, many parties and coalitions -- there are more than 400 across the country -- as well as independents reportedly have downplayed sectarian themes, and national election law has banned the use of religious sites for campaigning and the use of religious symbols on campaign posters and literature, in order to dampen sectarianism. Unlike in 2005, candidates openly campaign in public and stress issues such as improvement in basic services -- electricity and water -- and anti-corruption. "The situation is different now," said the police major. "People recognize good from bad. If the government -- Sunni or Shiite -- gives them what they need, they will support the government. "Many people believe this election will be good for them. They need someone to save them from the old names (current government leaders), to take responsibility and help everyone." According to a poll of 4,750 people in 14 provinces by the government-funded National Media Center, 41 percent of those questioned said they would vote for secular candidates, compared with 31 percent who said they would vote for those supported by religious parties. Also unlike 2005, this election's security is strictly an Iraqi affair. U.S. troops will not be on guard at the polling centers. According to U.S. and Iraqi officials, inner security at the schools and community centers used for voting will be the responsibility of the Iraqi police. A bit more distant from the centers will be the Iraqi army, and farther back in their vehicles will be U.S. troops who will only act as a quick reaction force in major incidents of violence. "We don't get near the polling stations," said 1st Lt. Todd Kluttz, of Bravo Company, 5th Infantry Regiment. "We're strictly QRF (Quick Reaction Force). The Iraqis have worked it all out. The only thing we asked for is to follow the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army when they take the ballots to the storage area to make sure nothing happens to them." Here in Diyala, as well as elsewhere in the country, all vehicle traffic is banned on Election Day to guard against the possibility of car bombs by al-Qaida and other extremists. Voters will be searched as they pass through security checkpoints around the polling centers, and females will be with police at voting center entrances to search women voters for bombs hidden beneath their clothing. "We're not expecting any trouble, but we're ready for it," said Amir Atif Ali, who is in charge of a government facilities protection service unit at a school in Baquba's Hayy Salaam neighborhood. "The people are ready for this election and it is important they feel safe." In Baquba 12 to 17 police officers already have been stationed at the venues. Concrete blast protection barriers have been placed in front of the buildings' entrances, and concertina wire will be placed to help channel voters to checkpoints. An Iraqi police officer will be on hand at communications centers on U.S. bases to relay and coordinate information among Iraqi police and army units on election duty. "I'm confident they're going to pull this off," 1st Lt. Kenneth Hunt, also with Bravo Company, said after his second visit of the day to polling sites in the Burhitz district of Baquba. "They have their own plan, which is good. They've even brought in police from other areas." In the run-up to the election U.S. troops have concentrated on visiting Iraqi police at the polling centers to assess security procedures in place and to inquire as to their needs and help supply what is needed -- from sandbags to boxes of food and water for the guards. On Saturday they'll be distant from the venues but available if requested and needed. Iraqi security plans for Baquba and the rest of the province were detailed, criticized and tweaked by about 100 Iraqi security officials last week in a meeting facilitated by U.S. forces on Forward Operating Base War Horse, which is near Baquba. At an indoor basketball court the Iraqis presented their plans and arrangements in place to their counterparts while pointing out salient features on a giant map of paint, wooden blocks and flags that had been created on plywood slabs on the floor of the court. Diyala and Iraq are ready for the voting, which has national as well as local implications. As the first major vote since the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was elected, it will be, in a sense, a referendum on his leadership and the direction in which the country is moving. Maliki is not running, since this is a provincial contest, but his face appears on posters for his Dawa Party and Rule of Law coalition. Maliki, a Shiite who has grown in public stature with his military operations against Shiite extremists in southern Iraq and in wrangling a date from Washington for withdrawal of U.S. troops, is expected to run for re-election in parliamentary elections later this year. An explosion of sectarian violence in Diyala province could quickly spread elsewhere and threaten the security and governance gains of his administration. In southern Iraq the results could help propel or hold at bay local sentiments for creation of a semiautonomous region such as the one the Kurds hold in the north, thus weakening the power of the central government. The four provinces of the autonomous Kurdish region are not participating in this election. They'll hold their provincial elections at a later date. After Saturday's voting a question vital to Iraqis as well as to the United States will be answered -- whether or not the Iraqi public, after the horrors of terrorism and sectarian bloodletting, are moving beyond the shackles of the past toward a more united Iraq. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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Obama to speak "relatively soon" on Iraq withdrawal: Gibbs Washington (AFP) Jan 28, 2009 President Barack Obama is likely to speak "relatively soon" on how he plans to withdraw US troops from Iraq, one of his central campaign promises, spokesman Robert Gibbs said Wednesday. |
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