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Analysis: Israel turns to old tech

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Joshua Brilliant
Tse'Elim Army Base, Israel (UPI) Aug 17, 2007
In the soft sands of the Negev desert, Israeli-made Merkava tanks were about to practice, again, occupying Syrian positions.

A mock Syrian line faced them. It comprised anti-tank ditches and behind them bagel-shaped earthen embankments so only the tanks' turrets and cannons would be exposed.

Blasts reverberated as the Merkava's cannons opened fire. Between blasts, the rat-tat-tat of machine-gun fire was heard.

"Missiles. Backup. Quickly," an impatient voice ordered over the company's radios; clouds of black and gray smoke engulfed the Merkavas, covering a quick retreat to safer grounds. Soon after the attack renewed, with a different tactic.

The Israeli army has been "training like crazy" to get back into shape after years of neglect.

Commanders thought tank wars were over since Israel repeatedly proved its military superiority as it became a high-tech force.

Future wars, the generals thought, would involve precision-guided munitions fired from afar, enemy missiles that may be tipped with nuclear or chemical warheads, and the kind of guerrilla warfare the Palestinians have been waging.

Tanks were considered "nice to have," said Maj. Gen. in the reserves Eyal Ben-Reuven. But Israel didn't need that many, and several battalions were disbanded.

The army became so engrossed in fighting the intifada soldiers were taken off their tanks and sent to police the Palestinian territories.

Then, when 22- and 23-year-old tank commanders completed their compulsory military service and joined reserve units, it suddenly emerged they were not as good as older reservists, a tank company commander noted.

Not that the reserve units were outstanding. Some have not trained for five years. Senior commanders had no experience managing large-scale formations.

"I was the last of a generation that saw operations with armored battalions to my right and left," recalled Ben-Reuven, who had been deputy head of the Northern Command during last year's Lebanon war.

That war was a wakeup call. It dispelled the notion that air power alone could suppress rocket attacks. Hundreds of Katyushas and mortar bombs rained on northern Israel and 33 days of fighting failed to stop them. Commanders concluded that boots on the ground were needed to stop those rockets.

The army's shortcomings eroded Israel's deterrence. For the first time in 30 years, Syrian officers have been telling one another that they can fight Israel, said a former head of the Northern Command, retired Maj. Gen. Yossi Peled.

"Even if they are wrong, the fact that that is their attitude means we may be on the way to another war," he warned. It could start with guerrilla-type attacks or seizing an Israeli post, analysts said.

Early Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak flew to the Golan to observe another tank exercise, this time by a standing army battalion.

Some soldiers played "the enemy" and fired missiles Israel seized during the last war.

Barak brought a TV crew with him, perhaps to deliver a message that Israel was preparing for a war. At the same time, he sought to calm the Syrians.

"Israel does not want war and we assume neither does Syria," he told Channel 10 TV.

Both sides are arming.

Russia reportedly concluded an arms deal with Syria whose scope is yet unclear. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns Thursday signed a memorandum of understanding with Israel providing for $30 billion of military assistance that, if Congress approves it, would be spread over 10 years.

Syrian and Israeli bulldozers are improving fortifications. Repairing roads and positions is something both sides do every summer, but this year's activities became more significant.

Israeli military intelligence analysts reported the Syrian forces' deployment is still defensive. However, the atmosphere is so "explosive," according to a military source, each side might misinterpret the other's actions. Even a mistake at the tactical level could deteriorate to a war, the officer said.

Ben-Reuven, who is attached to one of the divisions as its commander's instructor, recently told the Institute for National Security Studies that if fighting erupts, Israel would seek to hit the Syrian's regime's "symbols of power," and control the missile-launching areas.

Barak talked of a "clear, quick (campaign) decided on the enemy's territory with minimum damage to (Israel's) hinterland."

This, then, explains the war games. "They should be relevant to what the units will encounter in a battlefield," Barak told officers in fatigues who watched the maneuvers with him.

Such exercises are vital also to test plans and verify "that what we (intend to) do is doable. �� In the coming years, the training will be much more intensive," he said.

Bigger formations will exercise on the Golan where the rough terrain of basalt is the closest to what soldiers would encounter if ordered to fight Syria.

Barak wants to build two more divisions, acquire more Merkava IV tanks, better armored-personnel carriers, new means to protect them, and a "multilayer active defense system that can intercept rockets and missiles of all types." He talks also of preparing "Israel's long arm" and seeks bigger stockpiles.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has sent Syrian President Bashar Assad messages saying Israel does not intend to attack Syria and backed it with public statements.

"We have no plans, no desire, no interest in reaching a confrontation," Olmert said.

The war games are different in Israeli eyes. The mood in the Northern Command and the military intelligence is that the army should prepare to cope with the enemy's capabilities, not its perceived intentions. That, too, is a war lesson, though from 1973, when Israel failed to correctly analyze Egyptian and Syrian intentions and found itself in one of its worst wars.

(This report passed the Israeli military censor.)

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