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Analysis: Musharraf may bring in another general to takeover

There are plenty more dictator generals on the shelf in Pakistan.
by Anwar Iqbal
Washington (UPI) Aug 31, 2007
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has made his last move in the endgame he is playing with the country's politicians -- threatening to hand over the keys to another general before he quits.

The threat -- conveyed to opposition politicians in London -- is conditional. If politicians accept him as the head of a new government of national consensus for the next five years, he will work with them.

If not, he will quit and let them deal with another general.

"I won't let eight years' work go waste," Musharraf told one of his ministers in Islamabad on Monday, a comment leaked to the media.

Over the weekend Musharraf sent a team to London for "a final meeting" with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who has been negotiating a power-sharing deal with the general for some time.

The package his team brought from Islamabad includes an offer to convene an all-party conference for achieving "grand national reconciliation."

For the sake of this grand reconciliation, Musharraf offered to quit the army before the presidential elections, due by October this year. But in the trade-off he wants all political parties to agree to elect him president for the next five years after parliamentary elections, due later this year.

Musharraf also wants to retain the powers he enjoys as a military ruler, which makes the prime minister subservient to him. In the British parliamentary system that Pakistan follows, the prime minister enjoys all executive powers while the president is only a figure head.

The package also includes a proposal for forming a national government, which would then appoint a chief election commissioner to oversee the general elections.

Musharraf also has accommodated Bhutto's demand for a general amnesty for all political leaders and removal of the ban on two-term prime ministers.

In the trade-off, the politicians will have to agree to remove all constitutional hurdles that prevent Musharraf in seeking yet another term as president.

Sources in Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party told United Press International that Musharraf's team warned the politicians that if they fail to reach an agreement with him, he will quit and hand over power to another general.

The chief of Pakistan's much-dreaded Inter Service Intelligence, Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, led Musharraf's team in these talks, perhaps because he was considered the right person for telling politicians that if the talks failed, Pakistan will have yet another period of martial law.

But Musharraf's threats are not having much of an impact these days.

By Tuesday even the ruling PML (Q) party was trying to distance itself from the general. "The army chief of any democratic country in the world does not contest elections in uniform," said the vice president of the ruling party, Kabir Ali Wasti.

"The majority of party members and workers are against the president contesting the election in uniform but support his candidacy otherwise," he added.

On Monday Minister of State for Information Technology Ishaq Khakwani resigned from the Cabinet in protest against Musharraf's intentions of seeking re-election in uniform. This is the first major defection from the government on this issue.

Opposition parties have already been urging him not only to leave the army but also to step down and let an elected leader run the country.

Musharraf, however, is making last-ditch efforts to deal with this open rebellion. Sending a team to London for talks with Bhutto is part of this strategy.

Official sources in Islamabad told UPI that Musharraf's close aides also have contacted Nawaz Sharif's PML (N) party to see if they will back his move for a government of national consensus.

If both Bhutto and Sharif reject his proposal, Musharraf can then turn to the army, saying that since politicians are not interested in reaching a national consensus, he has no other option but to let the military deal with the situation.

It is, however, not clear if the military would back such a deal. Another hurdle that Musharraf may have to cross before bringing the troops is convincing the United States.

Recently, Washington played a key role in preventing Musharraf from imposing emergency rule in his country when media reports indicated he planned to do so.

On Aug. 9 U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned Musharraf to ask him not to declare a state of emergency, and she called the next morning to ensure that he had changed his mind.

The United States believes that moving further away from democracy will strengthen extremist forces in Pakistan and does not want another martial law or a state of emergency in that country.

But Washington does not want to lose Musharraf either. That's why it is trying to arrange a Bhutto-Musharraf deal.

But last week Pakistan's Supreme Court introduced yet another element into an already tense political situation when it allowed Sharif to return home, ignoring the government's plea that an agreement Sharif signed in 1999 prevents him from returning to Pakistan for 10 years.

"For the Bush administration, which has backed Musharraf as a crucial ally, Sharif's re-entry into politics would overturn its plan to prod the general to share power with Benazir Bhutto as a way of keeping him in power," the New York Times noted.

Most political observers in Pakistan and abroad agree that Sharif would not only return to a tumultuous welcome; he also can force Musharraf to step down.

Musharraf is also aware of this situation, but there's little he can do to prevent it. That's why many in Pakistan believe that when the time to quit comes, Musharraf may hand over power to yet another general rather than let Sharif run the country again.

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Analysis: Meeting the Taliban
Berlin (UPI) Aug 20, 2007
Should the West negotiate with moderate elements inside the Taliban? While the question currently divides the German government, it surfaced Monday that a team of German intelligence officials in 2005 secretly met with two Taliban representatives.







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