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Analysis: N. Korea readies missile launch

In a bid to show that its rhetoric is not bluster, the North has shifted its MiG-23 fighter jets to its east coast facing Japan.
by Lee Jong-Heon
Seoul (UPI) April 3, 2009
As global leaders were gathering in London for the G20 meeting to combat the worldwide financial crisis, North Korea tried to grab their attention by finalizing steps to fire a long-range missile and escalating threats against its worried neighbors.

The North's military threatened on Thursday to attack "major targets" in Japan should Tokyo attempt to shoot down a rocket the communist country plans to launch as early as this weekend. In a bid to show that its rhetoric is not bluster, the North has shifted its MiG-23 fighter jets to its east coast facing Japan.

"If Japan recklessly 'intercepts' the DPRK's (North Korea's) satellite for peaceful purposes, the (North) Korean People's Army will mercilessly deal deadly blows not only at the already deployed intercepting means but at major targets," the military said in what it called an "important statement."

"It is the Japanese reactionaries, the sworn enemy of the Korean people, who are perpetrating the most evil doings over the DPRK's projected satellite launch for peaceful purposes," said the statement from the general staff of the North's 1.2 million-member armed forces.

Japan has dispatched two Aegis-guided destroyers to waters close to the North to detect and track a rocket. The warships are equipped with the advanced Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor system that can shoot down long-range ballistic missiles.

Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has also ordered the Self-Defense Forces to shoot down any North Korean object entering his country's airspace. Prompted by the North's shock firing of a long-range ballistic missile over the Japanese mainland in 1998, Tokyo has built a missile defense shield, backed by cooperation with the United States.

The United States and South Korea have also deployed their missile-hunting Aegis destroyers to monitor the launch from North Korea.

In what appeared to be a response to the deployment, the North has deployed a fleet of MiG-23 fighter jets to the northeast, where its Musudan-ri launch site is located, in an apparent bid to guard against any attempts to intercept what it calls a "communications satellite," according to military sources in Seoul. MiG-23s can be equipped with anti-air missiles with a range of 20 kilometers.

North Korea has also begun fueling its three-stage rocket, news reports said, which would allow the country to launch it as early as this weekend. The North, missile experts say, could technically launch the rocket within three days.

The North has announced the launch would take place between April 4 and 8. Officials say the exact timing depends on weather conditions and technical issues, noting the top priority in determining the timing for a rocket launch is weather. "Windy and cloudy weather, let alone rain or snow, is not suitable for a rocket launch," an official said.

Kim Kyung-min, a political science professor at Seoul's Hanyang University, said the North's rocket launch, if successful, would prove its ability to deliver nuclear warheads with ballistic missiles that could hit U.S. territory.

"If North Korea could miniaturize nuclear warheads enough to fit atop its long-range missiles, it could pose grave threats to global security," he said.

Kim and other analysts say the North's missile test is mainly aimed at grabbing the attention of the Obama administration, which has focused its policy priorities on domestic economic issues and the Arab-Israeli conflict, and gaining the upper hand in negotiations over the nuclear issue.

The timing of the missile launch just after the G20 summit is a carefully calculated move to draw the attention of global leaders, they say.

But in London, world leaders were standing firm against the North's missile test. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to seek strong penalties for North Korea if it goes ahead with the launch.

On the sidelines of the G20 summit Lee and Obama held talks and "agreed on the need for a joint reaction by the international community, such as referring North Korea to the U.N. Security Council, if the North fires a long-range missile," the presidential office said in a statement. At the meeting, Obama criticized the launch as a "provocative act" that would violate a U.N. resolution and trigger additional sanctions.

Lee and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso also agreed to push for U.N. sanctions against North Korea if it launches a rocket. Aso vowed to raise the missile issue at the U.N. Security Council and try to adopt a resolution with the United States, Britain and other member countries.

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S.Korea, US vow 'stern' response to N.Korea missile launch
London (AFP) April 2, 2009
US President Barack Obama and South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-Bak on Thursday promised a firm and "stern" response to any North Korean rocket launch after a fresh fiery outburst from Pyongyang.







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