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Analysis: North Korea back to brinkmanship
Seoul (UPI) Feb 6, 2009 North Korea's recent bluster and saber-rattling fit a pattern that the so-called rogue state has followed for decades in order to tame new administrations in the United States and South Korea, reminding them that dealing with Pyongyang is a game of diplomatic hardball. The communist country has created crises on the Korean peninsula whenever it wants to grab attention from new leaders and gain the upper hand in future negotiations, experts here say. Once talks have started, the North slows the negotiations by slicing up the agenda and setting conditions for moving from one item to another in what analysts call "salami tactics," aimed at maximizing its gains at each stage. If the negotiating partner balks, it uses brinkmanship. Its recent series of saber-rattling tactics was highlighted by preparations for the launch of a long-range ballistic missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead that can hit U.S. territory. According to South Korean officials, on Friday a train carrying what is believed to be components of a Taepodong-2 missile capable of traveling up to 6,000 kilometers reached a launching site on the northeast coast, where the North test-fired a similar rocket in 2006 over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. Some experts say the missile could be a remodeled version of the Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, calling it Taepodong-3. South Korean officials initially said the train was detected heading to Dongchang-ri, a newly constructed launch pad on the North's west coast, about 40 kilometers from the border with China.
But they said the train has arrived at the Musudan-ri launch site on the east coast. "The train was last seen stationed at the Musudan-ri site," a government official said. Officials and analysts say a missile test could take place when the North holds parliamentary elections on March 8, which would be used to open leader Kim Jong Il's third term and possibly pave the way for another dynastic power transfer. This also could occur as early as Kim's birthday on Feb. 16. The missile-launch preparations came after the North declared last week it would not abide by the non-aggression pact and other agreements it has made with South Korea, which put the South on high alert. The communist country also said it no longer would respect the U.N.-imposed sea border with the South, raising the possibility of a naval skirmish in the disputed waters where the two Koreas exchanged deadly naval gunfire in 1999 and 2002. Pyongyang launched similar tension-raising measures 16 years ago when the Democratic administration of U.S. President Bill Clinton was inaugurated, a strategy that helped win the 1994 aid-for-disarmament deal. Just one month after Clinton took office, the North issued a statement, in March 1993, saying it would pull out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Two months later the North fired a Rodong-1 missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers. In the following year, the North withdrew from the International Atomic Energy Agency and began extracting spent fuel rods from its Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The brinkmanship finally paid off, leading to high-level talks with the Clinton administration that produced the Agreed Framework in October 1994 under which U.S.-led allies promised to provide light-water nuclear reactors for electricity and other aid packages in return for North Korea's promise to freeze its nuclear weapons program. But the 1994 deal broke down in 2002, when the George W. Bush administration accused the North of reneging on the agreement by running a clandestine atomic program based on enriched uranium. The North, which suffered from the hard-line stance of the Republican administration for the past eight years, is seeking to press U.S. President Barack Obama to follow in the footsteps of his Democratic predecessor, who promised massive economic and political benefits. "North Korea's recent saber-rattling seems aimed at applying pressure on the Obama administration to reach a package deal, like the 1994 agreement," a diplomatic source said. Kim Sung-han, a Korea University professor, said the North's moves are designed to attract attention from the Obama administration, which has focused its policy priorities on domestic economic issues and the Arab-Israeli conflict. "The move follows a pattern that the North took just after the inauguration of the Clinton administration in 1993," said Yoon Duk-min, a researcher at the state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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US commander warns NKorea against provocation Seoul (AFP) Feb 4, 2009 The US military chief in South Korea urged North Korea Wednesday to stop raising tensions on the divided peninsula, saying Seoul and Washington are prepared for any contingency. |
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