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WAR REPORT
Arab summit 2012: new leaders, new politics
by Staff Writers
Baghdad (AFP) March 26, 2012


This week's Arab summit in Baghdad will be very different from the one that met two years ago, with many long-time autocrats swept away by the political tsunami that has struck across the region.

Instead, new Islamist leaders will sit alongside long-serving hereditary rulers, while one country returns having lost much its territory to a newly created state, and all in meetings led for the first time by a Kurd.

On March 28, 2010, leaders of the 22-member Arab League met in Sirte, the home town of late Libyan strongman Moamer Kadhafi.

At the time, the focus of discussion was Israeli settlement-building in the Palestinian territories, and they agreed to next meet in Baghdad in March 2011.

But before then, mass protests erupted, first in Tunisia, that radically changed the Arab world and delayed the Iraqi gathering.

Uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt drove Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak from power respectively, Kadhafi was killed after a months-long rebellion, and Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh this year handed power to his deputy after nearly a year of protests and clashes.

Sudan also saw a massive chunk of what was its southern territory separate into newly formed South Sudan.

Syria, meanwhile, has been suspended from the League for its bloody crackdown on a year-long revolt that monitors say has left at least 9,100 people dead, and Damascus has been subjected to wide-ranging sanctions, with Western and some Arab leaders insisting that President Bashar al-Assad's days are numbered.

But there have also been deeper changes, according to one analyst.

"This is a result of the Arab tsunami," said Antoine Basbous, head of the Paris-based Observatory of Arab Countries.

"Heads of state are terrified of their people, and the reverse is no longer true... There will be a real mixing of the old and the new guards."

Triggered by an altercation between a policewoman and a roadside fruit seller who burned himself to death in protest in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid in December 2010, the Arab Spring has also touched countries that escaped mass uprisings.

Popular protests still take place in Bahrain, although rallies there last year were crushed by the monarchy, while parts of Saudi Arabia have also seen demonstrations organised by the kingdom's minority Shiite Muslims.

And in several of the countries where the protesters, often Internet-savvy youths, prevailed, autocrats have been replaced by Islamists who were either repressed or shut out of politics by those countries' now-deposed leaders.

The changes have created new fissures within the Arab League.

Islamist political blocs have fared well in elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco, are the main political force in Yemen, play a major role in Libya, and are expected to do well should Assad's regime fall in Syria.

The arrival of several new Islamist leaders and politicians could give the League a more Islamist identity, after decades of the bloc promoting pan-Arab nationalism.

The small, wealthy emirate of Qatar, meanwhile, sits at the head of an Arab League committee dealing with events in Syria, and is leading calls for armed intervention in that country's conflict.

And tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in the region have rarely been so acute.

The summit will also see what Iraqi officials have described as the re-emergence of their country as a regional leader, after decades of conflict and sanctions following its last turn as host, just months before now-executed dictator Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

"It will be interesting to watch the interplay between Iraq and new leaders in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya," said Reidar Visser, an Iraq analyst and editor of the www.historiae.org website.

"Iraq is interested in reaching out to those countries at the expense of the conservative Gulf states."

The summit will take place despite ongoing violence in Iraq, albeit markedly less than in 2006 and 2007 when all-out sectarian war blighted the country.

Much of the capital has been shut down as part of security efforts, and the government has declared a week-long holiday to cover the period of the summit, encouraging people to stay at home.

Whether or not the security measures deter attacks, they may also have the consequence of reducing interaction between the various Arab delegations.

"The summit will be minimal -- no more than a dozen heads of state spending no more than 12 hours in Baghdad on March 29, and departing on the day of their arrival without spending the night," Basbous said.

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Key issues for the Arab summit in Iraq
Baghdad (AFP) March 26, 2012 - Baghdad will host an Arab summit from March 27-29, the first time such a gathering has been held in Iraq in more than 20 years. Here are key issues facing the Arab world:

- The Syria crisis

Monitors say that more than 9,100 people have been killed in Syria's brutal attempt to repress an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad and his regime.

The uprising began as protests but has now shifted to armed conflict between rebel and pro-regime forces. Despite international efforts to curb the violence, it shows no sign of abating.

The Arab League voted on November 12 to suspend Syria, one of its founding members, over its crackdown on dissent, and has attempted to broker a solution to the unrest.

The small, wealthy emirate of Qatar sits at the head of an Arab League committee dealing with events in Syria, and is leading calls for armed intervention in the conflict there.

- Consequences of the Arab Spring

The December 2010 self-immolation of a Tunisian street vendor sparked protests that forced Tunisia's long-time dictator from power and inspired uprisings across the Arab world that toppled autocratic rulers in Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and others that are still ongoing such as in Syria and regular protests in Bahrain.

The Arab world is still struggling with the fallout.

- Iran's nuclear programme

Tensions are high over Iran's controversial nuclear programme, which Tehran insists is for civilian purposes, while much of the West accuses Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran has warned that it will strike back in the event of an attack by the US or Israel, and has threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a Gulf choke point for global oil shipments.

- Arab League reforms

Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi has proposed a series of structural reforms aimed at strengthening the League and improving mechanisms for the implementation of its decisions.

- The economy in the Arab world

Oil-producing states continue to benefit from high oil prices, but others suffer from economic crises including from the collapse of tourism because of Arab Spring protests. Countries in the region also face problems related to water and food shortages.



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Annan takes Syria peace plan to Russia
Moscow (AFP) March 24, 2012
Syrian peace envoy Kofi Annan arrived in Moscow on Saturday to gauge how far Russia was willing to push its Arab ally after joining a UN call on regime forces to pull back from protest cities. Annan will meet President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday and then hold talks starting Tuesday in China - the other Security Council member resisting efforts to condemn Sy ... read more


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