With Moscow's invasion of Ukraine pushing Finland and Sweden to join NATO, the trans-Atlantic alliance could soon welcome valuable partners for deterring any future Russian aggression.

The war has convinced many Finns and Swedes to rethink their longstanding aversion to NATO membership, with Finland's president and prime minister Thursday pressing for an application "without delay" and Sweden contemplating a similar move.

Since 1994, both countries have been part of the Partnership for Peace programme with NATO, and have contributed to NATO-led missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.

But outright membership would deepen the alliance's pool of ready-to-send forces at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin appears increasingly hostile to any expansion of Europe's influence.

"If these two countries were to join, it would strengthen NATO's deterrence -- and if deterrence failed its collective defence -- across the Arctic, Nordic, and Baltic regions," said Leo Michel, a researcher at the Atlantic Council.

"They would also apply their regional expertise on Russia to NATO decision making," Michel wrote in a recent research paper titled "Geography Matters."

Finland has maintained a relatively large army since the end of the Cold War, with 12,000 soldiers, a fleet of 55 F-18 fighter jets -- soon to be replaced by next-generation F-35s -- and some 600 artillery pieces.

It also trains 20,000 conscripts a year, giving it a potential wartime footing of 280,000 combat-ready troops, along with a further 600,000 reservists.

Sweden, for its part, has an army of 50,000 soldiers and in 2017 ordered a partial reinstatement of the mandatory military service that was ended in 2010.

And since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, Sweden has steadily increased defence spending to 1.2 percent of its gross domestic product -- though still below the 2 percent threshold sought by NATO.

- 'Not a small burden' -

That military might would be all the more critical if Finland joins, greatly extending a direct land border with Russia that until now exists with only Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Norway.

"It's 1,400 kilometres of additional border to defend. That's not a small burden for NATO," said one European official, on condition of anonymity.

It would also be the biggest expansion of NATO since the Baltic states joined in 2004 -- likely to be viewed by Putin as another incursion on Russia's sphere of influence no matter how the war in Ukraine unfolds.

"The Russian invasion proves Putin's willingness to eschew international norms and use military force in a war of aggression," said Michael Shurkin, a US political scientist and former CIA analyst.

"Another war against one of Russia's neighbours is not implausible. It's a real possibility for which those neighbours and their allies must prepare," he wrote on Twitter.

Finland in particular, which was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939, appears anxious to benefit from a defence alliance in which collective defence -- NATO's famous Article 5 -- is the bedrock.

"You caused this. Look in the mirror," Finland's President Sauli Niinisto said in a message to Russia after announcing his backing for NATO membership along with Prime Minister Sanna Marin.

Like Sweden, "Finland would acquire nuclear deterrence with NATO, something it could not do on its own," said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations.

Within NATO, the prospect of two new heavyweight members "is received quite favourably," a senior European diplomat said, adding that "nobody is pushing them."

The shift underscores "the convergence towards a synergy between NATO and Europe on defence," also seen in Denmark's decision to hold a June referendum on scrapping the defence "opt-out" that it secured as part of its EU membership.

The war in Ukraine "has significantly reinforced the attractiveness of NATO, because it's the proof that those who aren't part of it are vulnerable," Jean-Baptiste Jeangene-Vimer, head of strategic research at France's military academy (IRSEM), said just after Russia invaded on February 24.

"It's going to make stronger, both individually and collectively, the very forces that Putin sought to weaken," he said.

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO? Five things to know
Stockholm (AFP) May 12, 2022 - After decades of staying out of military alliances, Finland and Sweden are about to decide whether to apply to join NATO, as a deterrent against aggression from Eastern neighbour Russia.

The Nordic neighbours are expected to act in unison, with both expressing a desire for their applications to be submitted simultaneously if they decide to go that route.

- Historic U-turns -

For decades, a majority of Swedes and Finns were in favour of maintaining their policies of military non-alignment.

But Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 sparked a sharp U-turn.

The change was especially dramatic in Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border with Russia.

After two decades during which public support for NATO membership remained steady at 20-30 percent, polls now suggest that more than 75 percent of Finns are in favour.

During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for assurances from Moscow that it would not invade. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Finland remained militarily non-aligned.

Sweden, meanwhile, adopted an official policy of neutrality at the end of the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century.

Following the end of the Cold War, the neutrality policy was amended to one of military non-alignment.

- Close NATO partners -

While remaining outside NATO, both Sweden and Finland have formed ever-closer ties to the Alliance. Both joined the Partnership for Peace programme in 1994 and then the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997.

Both countries are described by the Alliance as some of "NATO's most active partners" and have contributed to NATO-led missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Sweden's and Finland's forces also regularly take part in exercises with NATO countries and have close ties with Nordic neighbours Norway, Denmark and Iceland -- which are all NATO members.

- Sweden's military -

For a long time, Swedish policy dictated that the country needed a strong military to protect its neutrality.

But after the end of the Cold War, it drastically slashed its defence spending, turning its military focus toward peacekeeping operations around the world.

In 1990, defence spending accounted for 2.6 percent of GDP, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020, according to the government.

Mandatory military service was scrapped in 2010 but reintroduced in 2017 as part of Sweden's rearmament following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Combining its different branches, the Swedish military can field some 50,000 soldiers.

In March 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden announced it would increase spending again, targeting two percent of GDP "as soon as possible".

- Finland's military -

While Finland has also made some defence cuts, in contrast to Sweden it has maintained a much larger army since the end of the Cold War.

The country of 5.5 million people now has a wartime strength of 280,000 troops plus 600,000 reservists, making it significantly larger than any of its Nordic neighbours despite a population half the size of Sweden's.

In early April, Finland announced it would further boost its military spending, adding more than two billion euros ($2.1 billion) over the next four years. It has a defence budget of 5.1 billion euros ($5.4 billion) for 2022.

- Memories of war -

While Sweden has sent forces to international peacekeeping missions, it has not gone to war for over 200 years.

The last conflict it fought was the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814. It maintained its neutral stance through the two World Wars.

Finland's memories of warfare are much fresher. In 1939, it was invaded by the Soviet Union.

Finns put up a fierce fight during the bloody Winter War, which took place during one of the coldest winters in recorded history. But it was ultimately forced to cede a huge stretch of its eastern Karelia province in a peace treaty with Moscow.

A 1948 "friendship agreement" saw the Soviets agree not to invade again, as long as Finland stayed out of any Western defence cooperation.

The country's forced neutrality to appease its stronger neighbour coined the term "Finlandization".

Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

Ukrainians being taken 'against their will' into Russia: Pentagon
Washington (AFP) May 9, 2022
The Pentagon said Monday it has seen indications that Ukrainians caught up in Russia's invasion are being forcibly removed from their homeland and sent to Russia. "I can't speak to how many camps or what they look like," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters when asked about statements from Kyiv that some 1.2 million Ukrainians were being sent to Russia and placed in camps. "But we do have indications that Ukrainians are being taken against their will into Russia," Kirby said. He called t ... read more