BMD Focus: Hope for START Part Two

MISSILE DEFENSE

US senator hopeful on renewing Russia nuclear arms treaty
A leading US senator expressed optimism on Friday that Russia and the United States would succeed in renewing a key nuclear arms treaty which expires next year. Both countries feel it is "very important" to find a successor to the START I agreement, Richard Lugar told reporters in Moscow after meeting Russian officials. "There is an understanding at the highest levels that, given the expiration of the START treaty in December 2009... there could be pressure to get the job done on something that I think both Russia and the United States feel is very important to continue," he said. Lugar has said his Moscow trip is intended to find out "what's on the minds of the Russian leadership" and report back to the new administration of president-elect Barack Obama. He said he did not believe that a bitter dispute over US missile defence plans would hold up talks over renewing START I, a landmark 1991 treaty which limits the number of missiles and warheads that each side may have. "I do not have the impression that the START treaty renewal is linked to the missile defence issues," he said. In recent months Moscow has repeatedly lashed out over US plans to build missile defence facilities in Eastern Europe despite assurances from Washington that the so-called "missile shield" is not directed against Russia. Lugar also said that Russian proposals for strict verification measures "have a great deal of validity" and that he expected "we would come to conclusions very rapidly" on such issues. "It is very important to persons who have followed this like myself that we have intrusive inspections, that we have agreed-upon accounting," he said. The administration of President George W. Bush has resisted Moscow's demands for strict verification measures in its arms-control negotiations with Russia. Earlier this week US and Russian officials failed to make a breakthrough in preliminary talks on replacing START I. Known in full as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, START was a historic deal that led to major reductions in the nuclear weapons stockpiles of the two powers.

by Martin Sieff
Washington (UPI) Dec 19, 2008
Why have Russia's diplomats done a dramatic U-turn on their relations with the United States? Within the past week a Russian deputy foreign minister has signaled a willingness to negotiate seriously with Washington about creating a new treaty to replace the START I Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which runs out in December 2009.

Also last weekend, legendary former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, now in his 80s, visited Moscow and is believed to have discussed the possibility of reopening strategic arms treaty negotiations between the governments of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama after he takes office on Jan. 20 and the Russian government of President Dmitry Medvedev.

There are solid grounds for this Russian willingness to test the waters with the incoming Obama administration, but causes for caution, too.

Obama made clear repeatedly during his successful 11-month campaign for the presidency, from the Iowa caucuses last January, that he is highly skeptical about the value of building a ballistic missile defense base in Poland, with an accompanying radar tracking facility in the neighboring Czech Republic, to protect the United States and Western Europe from the threat of some future nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles that might be fired by Iran.

This kind of talk is welcome news to Russian policymakers. Although the proposed BMD bases in Central Europe are not targeted at any Russian threat, the Russians are convinced they are. Their suspicion of U.S. motives has been fueled by the outgoing Bush administration's drive to include the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia in the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Indeed, even as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was signaling a willingness to close the deal with the United States over a START successor treaty within the next year, he also made clear that building those bases would be a deal-breaker for any agreement to succeed START.

Russian policymakers appear to be banking on the traditional passion of Democratic Party think tank intellectuals and policymakers for arms control agreements. START I has been the greatest cornerstone of the world of managed nuclear rivalry and deterrence since it was signed in 1991. The Democratic foreign policy establishment has always opposed the Bush administration's willingness to ignore arms control treaties or let them run out, and they also have opposed what the Dems regarded as the unilateralist go-it-alone approach of Bush policymakers.

Respected Russian political commentator Dmitry Kosyrev of RIA Novosti sounded an optimistic note for the strategic nuclear talks when he wrote Dec. 15, "It is clear that Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev will hold summits in any event. The two leaders will have to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty -- START I -- which expires on Dec. 5 of the next year."

However, Kosyrev also soberly noted the current extremely bad state of U.S.-Russian relations. "Russia and America do not keep in touch in the world arena, if we do not count mutual verbal accusations which have no consequences. They are less in contact than they were during the Soviet times," he wrote.

It would seem that from this low base, there is nowhere for U.S.-Russian strategic relations to go in the new Obama administration except to improve. However, this may not be the case.

(Part 3: Why U.S.-Russian strategic relations may stay bad under Obama)

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MISSILE DEFENSE

BMD Focus: Hope for START Part One

Washington (UPI) Dec 17, 2008
Senior Russian diplomats are pledging to cooperate with the incoming Obama administration to conclude a far-reaching nuclear arms reduction treaty by the end of next year.

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