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WAR REPORT
Bumpy road to destruction of Syria chemical weapons: experts
By Charles ONIANS
The Hague (AFP) Sept 15, 2013


Battles rage on in Syria Christian town: security official
Damascus (AFP) Sept 14, 2013 - Syria's army battled rebels for control of the ancient Christian town of Maalula near Damascus on Saturday, a security official told AFP, a week after opposition fighters took the area.

"The army is continuing its mission in Maalula. There are still some terrorist pockets in the north of the town, in the Al-Safir hotel and its surroundings, as well as in the hills surrounding the town," the official from the security services said on condition of anonymity.

President Bashar al-Assad's regime has consistently labelled opponents as "terrorists" since the outbreak of the revolt in March 2011 that has killed more than 110,000 people.

"The army has made some progress," the official added, saying the battle for Maalula has been hard because the army did not want to bomb the town.

Picturesque Maalula is home to ancient churches and is nestled under a large cliff, whose summit is controlled by the rebels, making it difficult for the army to advance.

Last week, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and residents said rebel forces, including jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda, had overrun the town.

On Tuesday, rebels announced they would withdraw from Maalula, but that this was "conditional" on pro-regime forces not taking their place.

The town, home to about 5,000 people, is strategically important for rebels, who are trying to tighten their grip on Damascus and already have bases circling the capital.

Civilians started fleeing the town nearly two weeks ago for Damascus and the neighbouring Sunni village of Ain al-Tine, fearing an imminent escalation.

Syria opposition demands ban on regime air power
Beirut (AFP) Sept 15, 2013 - Syria's opposition demanded on Sunday that the international community impose a ban on the Damascus regime's use of its air power in urban areas, in addition to its chemical weapons.

"The Syrian National Coalition insists that the prohibition of chemical weapons, the use of which has left more than 1,400 civilians dead, be extended to the use of ballistic missiles and aircraft against urban areas," it said in a statement.

The bloc did not comment directly on a landmark US-Russian deal reached Saturday on eliminating Syria's chemical weapons, which has been denounced by its military chief, General Selim Idriss.

But it said that Damascus's acceptance of the Russian initiative to dismantle its chemical stockpiles could be explained by "the fear of a military strike".

The National Coalition recognised the need to "seize this opportunity to halt the regime's campaign against residential areas and to end the suffering of the Syrian people."

In addition to banning the use of the regime's aerial threat, it called for the resurrection of a plan to move heavy weaponry away from populated areas and to ban their use against cities, towns and villages.

"We should not allow the Syrian regime to use its accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention as an excuse to continue killing Syrian people and escape punishment," said the statement.

"Securing the regime's chemical weapons must be accompanied by a search for justice with the perpetrators of the chemical weapons attacks brought before the International Criminal Court."

The Coalition also asked its Arab and international supporters to strengthen the opposition's military capabilities.

This would enable it to "neutralise" the regime's air power and heavy armour and force President Bashar al-Assad to end his military campaign and accept a political solution to guarantee a democratic transition, it added.

The US-Russian deal brokered Saturday to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons will be difficult if not impossible to implement, experts said, not least because of the quandary of their destruction.

The landmark deal thrashed out in Geneva gives Syria a week to hand over details of the regime's stockpile, which it aims to destroy by mid-2014 in order to avert US-led military strikes.

But chemical weapons expert Jean Pascal Zanders said that timetable is irrelevant because decision-making now passes to the Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

Based in The Hague, the OPCW is charged with implementing the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Syria asked to join amid growing calls for military action against Damascus.

"The Executive Council has sovereign decision-making, and the US and Russia just have one vote each among the 41 members, so I wouldn't be surprised if we don't have consensus decision-making," Zanders told AFP.

"All deadlines proposed in the bilateral document (in Geneva) will only start running once the (Executive Council) decision has been taken," said Zanders, who runs a consultancy and blog dedicated to disarmament.

The OPCW's Executive Council is currently set to meet on Wednesday, but a source close to the matter said that date might be pushed back to Thursday or Friday.

Even once inspectors are deployed and stockpiles are found, they face the practical problem of destruction, said Olivier Lepick of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

"You have to build a factory that costs several hundreds of millions of dollars to then be able to destroy the chemical weapons," Lepick told AFP.

In Iraq, weapons inspectors used innovative but problematic methods to destroy Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, Zanders said.

"Sometimes holes were dug in the desert, fuel was put in it and a certain type of detonation was created that equals the effect of a fuel air bomb as a result of which you had high temperature incineration, which was not necessarily contained or controlled."

Taking the weapons out of Syria would also be a problem.

"The CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention) says chemical weapons and their ingredients cannot be transferred and no state party can under whatever circumstances acquire them in any way," Zanders said.

Syrian foe Israel is one of a handful of countries not to have ratified the CWC, and as it is the only one with a border with Syria, sending them there would "be the only option that's not prohibited by the CWC," he said.

"But I don't know what Bibi's (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) reaction would be to get them on Israeli territory."

For the same reason, taking the weapons to either the United States or Russia would also not be possible.

"Even assuming the US or Russia would be willing to accept these weapons on their soil, they have national laws prohibiting the transport of these weapons between states," Zanders said.

But, he added: "I do believe that people can be creative with the law."

Lepick said he thought it would be impossible for Syrian stockpiles to be destroyed by mid-2014, noting that the United States and Russia have still not destroyed their chemical weapons despite spending billions of dollars trying to do so since 1993.

The mid-2014 deadline "seems to be a complete fantasy", Lepick told AFP.

"Given the civil war, I don't think it can happen... In peacetime it would take years to dismantle Syria's chemical arsenal."

Former Iraq UN weapons inspector David Kay told CNN on Saturday that "doing this in the context of a civil war with a considerable amount of force used on both sides makes it very difficult."

It will also be difficult to find the right people for the job of inspection.

"It will take time to assemble them. Quite frankly, with my experience in Iraq, some of the people will not want to go into a combat zone."

burs-cjo/gd/lc

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