The efforts of the previous Republican administration of President George W. Bush to restrict the Iranian nuclear program failed because of Russia's and China's resistance and the only half-hearted commitment of the major nations of Western Europe. Therefore, soon the new U.S. government of President Barack Obama will have to decide its next move. Its options will include accepting a nuclear Iran, attempting to present more strenuous deterrence measures or approving a pre-emptive series of air attacks to take out Iran's sprawling nuclear infrastructure.

Unlike Israel, the United States has the capabilities, if not the political will, to launch and then sustain a prolonged bombing campaign against Iranian targets, using Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, Boeing B-1 Lancer and Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit strategic bombers armed with bunker-buster bombs along with Tomahawk air-launched cruise missiles.

Bunker-buster bombs were designed during World War II by British designer Barnes Wallis, who also invented the bouncing bombs: Tallboy, which weighed 5 tons, and the 10-ton Grand Slam "Earthquake."

Modern bunker-busters were developed in the early 1990s as a stopgap measure, using old 8-inch -- 203mm -- artillery barrels as casings. These bombs weighed more than 2 tons but carried only 647 pounds of high explosive. They were laser-guided and designated Guided Bomb Unit-28. They worked very effectively when delivered by old General Dynamics F-111 bombers and Panavia Tornadoes.

Today's bunker-busters, known as BLU-113 Super Penetrators, are capable of going through up to 20 feet -- 6 meters -- of reinforced concrete. But even more powerful weapons may be needed to get to the caves and underground facilities of the Iranian nuclear death machine.

The U.S. intelligence community is now facing the question: How soon could all three elements needed for a deliverable nuclear weapon -- fissile material, a weapon delivery system and a ready nuclear warhead -- come together in Iran?

Sufficient fissile material can be obtained within months, and Iran's recently launched satellite was fired into Earth orbit earlier this year by a multistage rocket with obvious intermediate ballistic missile capability. That launch success demonstrated that the Islamic republic already enjoys a viable long-range delivery system program.

Therefore, one can plausibly judge that at least two of the three elements necessary to fire nuclear weapons at American cities from almost halfway around the world will be within Tehran's reach in the short term.

At the same time, it is likely that an ongoing, covert nuclear-weapons development program -- or illicit technology transfers from collaborators, such as North Korea or Pakistan, or even from Russia, Ukraine or Belarus -- may speed the Iranian warhead effort.

According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Iran already has one of the largest missile stockpiles in the Middle East, including North Korean-manufactured ballistic missiles Scud-Bs, Scud-Cs, and No-dongs. Iran also received missile-technology assistance from Russia and China, which train its engineers and scientists.

(Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy security at the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute at The Heritage Foundation.)

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