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Chance Of War Between Nuclear Armed India, Pakistan Highest Since 1971: CIA

The Indian Prime Minister rallies the masses with missiles and bombs

 Washington (AFP) Mar 19, 2002
The chance of war between India and Pakistan is at its highest point since 1971 and conventional conflict which breaks out could escalate into nuclear war, CIA Director George Tenet warned Tuesday.

Tenet, in a review of threat conditions worldwide, expressed concern about instability created by an attack by Pakistan-based militants on India's parliament on December.

"The chance of war between these two nuclear armed states is higher than at any point since 1971," he said in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"If India were to conduct large scale offensive operations in Pakistani Kashmir, Pakistan might retaliate with strikes of its own in the belief that its nuclear deterrent might limit the scope of the counter attack," he said.

He noted that both India and Pakistan have publicly downplayed the risk of a nuclear conflict.

"We are deeply concerned, however, that a conventional war once begun could escalate into nuclear confrontation," he said.

The United States mounted a frenzied diplomatic offensive around the turn of the year to head off a potential confrontation between India and Pakistan, which both mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops following the parliament attack.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said Tuesday after Tenet's remarks that tension had eased significantly between the arch-rivals as a result of that diplomatic initiative.

"I think the tension has eased in the region in great part because of the president's role that he played -- and Secretary (of State Colin) Powell's role -- they played on working direct with Indian and Pakistani officials.

"It's an important area that continues to be a priority of this administration, and so too, as you know, is the war against terrorism."

In addition to the fears of a nuclear conflict in South Asia, the United States was concerned that the tension between India and Pakistan could negatively impact its anti-terror operations in Afghanistan.

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