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China military power unknown despite parade show: experts

China to sign Taiwan pact after Kadeer ban: report
China plans to sign a key financial pact with Taiwan later this month as a reward for the island barring a visit by Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer, a report here said Thursday. The two sides are likely to ink the memorandum of understanding on financial cooperation by the end of October, allowing closer ties in the banking, insurance and securities industries, the Commercial Times reported. It cited remarks by China's Taiwan Affairs Office officials to Taiwanese businessmen in Beijing ahead of the mainland's October 1 National Day. The arrangement was made after Taiwan decided last week to prevent exiled Kadeer, branded a "criminal" in Beijing, from making a trip to the island, the paper said.

In another sign of improving ties, the Bank of China, one of the mainland's big four state-owned commercial lenders, will set up a representative office in Taiwan after the October 1 holiday, the report said. The two sides have also tentatively decided to hold a new round of negotiations in mid-December in Taiwan's Taichung city to discuss a major trade pact, it said. The Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan's top body in charge of China policy, said it could neither confirm nor deny the report. "Our stance is to sign the memorandum of understanding as soon as possible," said an official with the council, who asked not to be named. Meanwhile, a pro-independence group that invited Kadeer expressed indignation. "The government bowed to China's pressure for partisan and economic benefits, and this shows that the government is weak and incompetent," said Gary Chiang, secretary-general of Guts United Taiwan.

US-based Kadeer said last week she would like to visit Taiwan, but within days Taipei vetoed the idea, likely heading off a major confrontation with China, which was already angered by a recent Dalai Lama visit to the island. China accuses Kadeer of orchestrating ethnic violence in her home region of Xinjiang in the northwest in July, which left about 200 dead. She denies the charges. However, despite barring Kadeer, Taiwan has not stopped the screening of a biopic about her, creating another strain on ties, which have otherwise improved markedly since pro-Beijing Ma Ying-jeou became president here in 2008. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party will show Kadeer's film and a documentary on alleged Chinese repression in Tibet later Thursday to demonstrate Taiwan's support for freedom and democracy, it said.

by Staff Writers
 Beijing (AFP) Oct 1, 2009
 President Hu Jintao on Thursday called for even stronger armed forces as China flexed its muscles in a National Day parade, but experts said the PLA's marching skills might exceed actual fighting ability.

Illustrating the importance China attaches to its growing military strength, the People's Liberation Army kicked off a dazzling celebration in Beijing of the nation's 60th birthday by showing off a range of home-grown weaponry.

China has boasted that the nuclear-capable missiles, fighter jets, aerial drones and other advanced arms on display mark a "quantum leap" made possible thanks to a long-running campaign to upgrade the once-backward PLA.

Hu hailed this push in a speech to a packed Tiananmen Square, ahead of the massive military parade.

"The PLA ... must carry forward their glorious tradition, build up military strength and perform their duties earnestly," he said.

Official media gushed after the parade about the "cutting-edge" arms that have caused concern overseas about Beijing's military intentions, but analysts noted China had far to go before it could truly project military power abroad.

"We can make absolutely no conclusions about the actual tactical abilities of the troops or the capabilities of the equipment from what we have seen," Dennis J. Blasko, a former US military attache to China, told AFP.

"The fact that nothing broke down en route and all marchers completed the parade is admirable, but does not speak to tactical capabilities," he said.

Blasko noted one apparent advancement -- the intercontinental ballistic missiles which state-run Xinhua news agency described as a military "trump card" were now on mobile launchers.

"The key is its mobility, thus improving its survivability and insuring a true second-strike capability," he said.

But aside from hardware such as the Jian-10 fighter jet, much of what was seen on Thursday represented upgrades or variations on weapons seen in the 50th anniversary parade in 1999, he said.

However, the array of home-grown systems showed China was making clear progress in moving away from its long-term reliance on Russian arms purchases, experts said.

And the mix of ground, naval and air force components showed the PLA -- which encompasses all those branches -- was growing more diverse.

"The era of a 'heavy' PLA is over. A lighter, more diversified and capable military able to complete various missions was on display," a Western diplomat well-versed in military issues, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie boasted last month that much of his nation's weaponry now rivals that included in Western arsenals, but analysts said China has much to do before it comes close to challenging American power.

"Despite rapid strides in military modernisation, China still has a lot of catching up to do," said Minxin Pei, a China scholar at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"Most of its neighbours, including Japan, India, South Korea, and Taiwan, have more advanced and better-trained air forces and navies than it does," he said in a research note.

China also is believed to possess too few of some systems, such as major missiles, for them to be significant in strategic terms in the near term.

"This was a demonstration of what China knows how to do but this is just a show -- the entire military is not equipped with what we saw this morning," said the Western diplomat.

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