China and Russia set off alarms in the West this month with the most robust declaration of their friendship in decades but Beijing has signalled it would not back Vladimir Putin if he sent troops in to invade Ukraine.

The February 4 joint statement by the neighbours included unprecedented support from Beijing for Moscow's opposition to the expansion of NATO, and came as Washington and its allies were warning of full-scale Russian military action against Kyiv.

It was "quite a quantum shift from what has been a steady intensification, elevation of the content of Russia-China declarations over the last 20 years", former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd said during an online discussion co-hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank and the Asia Society.

"It is China becoming a global security actor in a way that I personally have not seen before."

China's unusually direct position on NATO and support for Moscow's "reasonable" security concerns have, however, placed it on a diplomatic tightrope, forcing it to balance its close Russia ties with major economic interests in Europe.

With more than 150,000 troops massed on the border with Ukraine, Russia has demanded guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join NATO -- a position in stark contrast to China's long-standing stated foreign policy red line: no interference in other countries' internal affairs.

When asked if there was a contradiction, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference via video link Saturday that the sovereignty of all nations should be respected.

"Ukraine is no exception," he said.

That position was tested in just two days.

Russian President Putin on Monday recognised two "republics" in Ukraine held by pro-Moscow separatist rebels, and ordered the deployment of troops there.

The United States and its allies blasted Russia for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine at an emergency UN Security Council meeting, but China was circumspect, urging restraint by "all sides".

Putin has "denied the territorial independence and sovereignty -- indeed, the very existence -- of Ukraine", Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO, wrote on Twitter.

"Both were core... (tenets) of China's approach to the crisis. Putin has blown both to bits."

- Delicate balance -

This is not the first time China has had to strike a delicate balance between its interests and a major international escalation by its strategic partner Russia.

When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, China did not join Russia's veto of a UN Security Council resolution on the issue, instead abstaining and mainly offering economic support.

Eight years later, experts say there are again limits to what Beijing can -- or wants to -- do for Moscow.

Among the key factors are trade and financial links with Europe. Overt backing of any Russian belligerence could also threaten the major investment deal Beijing is trying to seal with the bloc.

Further, some analysts say China may not want to escalate already high tensions with the United States.

"The Ukraine crisis... carries significant risk of the bottom falling out of (China's) relationships with the EU and the US," wrote Bill Bishop in the Sinocism China Newsletter.

"I do not believe that Xi and his team want to see Russia invade Ukraine, as they understand the risks from the expected reaction to any invasion."

Others said that, with its support for Moscow's concerns about NATO, Beijing may be looking to its own future security interests.

By implicitly siding with Moscow, Beijing gains "considerable diplomatic leverage" and "presumes that Russia will act likewise when China finds itself in a critical security situation", Richard Ghiasy, an expert at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, told AFP.

- Act of defiance -

Despite Beijing's guarded language on Ukraine, observers say the China-Russia joint announcement is still a stark challenge to the United States and its allies beyond the current crisis.

The statement contained challenges to the definitions of democracy and human rights, which Moscow and Beijing have been accused of violating by the West for years.

This prompted scathing criticism in Europe, with some accusing two authoritarian regimes of trying to redefine universal concepts to suit their agenda.

"It's an act of defiance," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday.

"It's a clear revisionist manifesto."

West voices fears of Russia-China axis
Munich, Germany (AFP) Feb 19, 2022 - Western leaders on Saturday said Russia and China were seeking to "replace the existing international rules" with their own order, as Beijing backed Moscow over its showdown with NATO.

Russia has all but encircled Ukraine with its huge troop buildup and US President Joe Biden has warned that Vladimir Putin plans an invasion within days.

Moscow is using the threat to invade Ukraine to demand a halt to NATO expansion and what it calls "Cold War" ideologies.

At a closely choreographed appearance in Beijing for the Winter Olympics, Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had put up a united front against NATO expansion.

"For the first time we now see Beijing joining Moscow in calling on NATO to stop admitting new members," noted the alliance's chief Jens Stoltenberg, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.

"It is an attempt to control the fate of free nations, to rewrite the international rulebook and impose their own authoritarian models of governance," he warned.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen had stronger words, accusing Moscow of a "blatant attempt" to rewrite the global order.

Russia and China are seeking to "replace the existing international rules -- they prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination," she told the Munich conference.

Addressing the same forum via video-link a few hours later, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing's commitment to respecting territorial sovereignty has been "consistent" and that anyone challenging it was "distorting" its position.

But he also questioned whether an eastern expansion of NATO would guarantee lasting peace.

"We believe that the Cold War is long gone -- NATO was a product of the Cold War era and now we need to look at the current situation and there needs to be an adaptation of NATO," he said.

"If there is persistent eastern expansion, will that guarantee peace in Europe? That is a question that our friends in Europe need to consider seriously."

Wang also stressed that "all parties have the right to raise their concerns, while the reasonable concerns of Russia should also be respected and heeded."

- 'Multi-polar' -

China has in recent years been in the crosshairs of the West over its human rights record, including its alleged abuse of Uyghurs, which has also sparked a US-led Western diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics.

China enjoyed plentiful support from the Soviet Union -- the precursor to the modern Russian state -- after the establishment of Communist rule in 1949, but the two socialist powers later fell out over ideological differences.

Relations got back on track as the Cold War ended in the 1990s, and the pair have pursued a strategic partnership in recent years that has seen them work closely on trade, military and geopolitical issues.

The escalating tensions with the West have further bolstered ties between the world's most populous nation and the world's largest.

Speaking in Munich on Saturday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned against viewing the world through Cold War lenses, as he assessed that nations are no longer divided into a communist and a capitalist half since the 1990s.

"There are now only capitalist countries on the globe, but North Korea. And if you see it like this, the difference between the states is about autocracy, about the way how we rule our countries, about democracy," he said.

"It is absolutely clear that we are going into a world that is multi-polar," he said, adding that "you can be sure that other upcoming or already great nations of Asia will not accept" any attempts by China or Russia to build up their own spheres of domination or interest.

"Not Korea, not Japan, not Vietnam, not Indonesia, not Malaysia," he warned.

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