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WAR REPORT
Colombia, FARC rebels sign historic ceasefire
By Alexander Grosbois in Havana with Alina Dieste in Bogota
Havana/Bogota (AFP) June 24, 2016


Colombia at 'point of no return' on path to peace
Bogota (AFP) June 24, 2016 - A historic ceasefire between the Colombian government and FARC rebels marks a "point of no return" on the road to peace but risks still lie ahead, analysts say.

- What is the agreement's scope?

"This is a very important step forward" in the talks conducted since November 2012 between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos and the Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), said Ariel Avila, a political scientist at Bogota's Externado University and deputy director of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation.

"It may not be the final agreement, but we're already at the point of no return," Alejo Vargas, coordinator of the National University's Center for Reflection and Monitoring of the Peace Dialogues, added in a statement.

"This agreement is the decisive point in the negotiations and will lead to the finalization of the conflict with the FARC," which began with a peasant uprising in the early 1960s, said Jorge Restrepo, director of the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (CERAC).

- What are the important points?

"This agreement's most significant element is the renunciation of armed violence and use of force to harm the adversary," CERAC said in a statement.

With agreements on the ceasefire, demobilization, disarmament and action against paramilitary groups, the accord "achieved 95 percent" of what was on the agenda at the talks, Avila said.

For Vargas, the "negotiations are irreversible and what remains (to be done) has been reduced to implementing the signed agreements."

These include deals struck over recent years on land reform, the FARC's future political role, illegal drugs, reparation for victims and finally the ceasefire.

- What are the challenges ahead?

The agreement is lacking on a few "delicate" points, Avila said: the reintegration of FARC members, the means of ratifying the accord and FARC demands for discussions over agricultural land, drugs and the media.

Colombia is the world's largest cocaine producer, according to the United Nations. The drug has fueled the 52-year conflict.

Vargas believes possible violations of the bilateral ceasefire would have little effect. Such incidents since the FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire in July 2015 "did not affect what's been achieved today and what's still to come."

CERAC is less optimistic, predicting that the agreement will "increase violent confrontation through battles for control of criminal resources ... in the areas with demobilized paramilitary groups and the ELN," the leftist National Liberation Army -- the country's second-biggest guerrilla group.

CERAC did not rule out that "other armed groups would use violence to attack this agreement and the peace process," which is "a minor risk, but not negligible."

The analysis group also warned of "the political risk that a final agreement with the FARC would be rejected by some citizens or the political opposition, which would thwart the progress of the bilateral ceasefire agreement."

However, Vargas said, government supporters of the deal are in the majority in the country. In a referendum, he estimated, "up to 70 percent would vote 'Yes.'"

The Colombian government and FARC rebels signed a ceasefire and disarmament agreement Thursday, one of the last steps toward ending a half-century conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.

The deal puts a definitive end to fighting in Latin America's longest civil war, which has torn the country apart with shootings and bombardments in its coca-rich jungles and hills.

President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Timoleon Jimenez shook hands and smiled after negotiators signed the deal at a ceremony in Cuba.

The deal establishes "a bilateral ceasefire and end to hostilities and the definitive laying down of arms," according to the text.

"This is a historic day for our country," Santos said in a speech to assembled leaders including UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

"After more than 50 years of confrontations, deaths, attacks and pain, we have put a final end to the armed conflict with the FARC."

Disarmament will begin after the signing of a full final peace agreement, expected within weeks.

"Let this be the last day of the war," Jimenez said.

Thursday's agreements "leave us on the verge of completing a final accord relatively soon," he added.

The final deal "will allow us to return at last to legal political activity through peaceful and democratic means."

- Tears of joy -

In the Colombian capital of Bogota, crowds gathered to watch the announcement on a big screen.

One man, Camilo Gonzalez, was moved to tears.

"It has been a tragic journey. Millions of victims, people displaced, fighting, broken dreams," he said.

"But I think now we have reached a moment of hope."

Under the agreement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) must hand over its weapons to United Nations monitors within six months.

The FARC's members -- an estimated 7,000 or so -- will gather in "normalization zones" for a demobilization process.

The sides also agreed to government action against "criminal organizations" blamed for fueling the conflict.

The United States congratulated Colombia. "We will stand ready to help the Colombian people as they work toward a just and lasting peace," said US National Security Advisor Susan Rice.

The European Union's foreign representative Federica Mogherini in a statement called it a "a turning point in the Colombian peace process."

"Now all efforts must be devoted to reaching a final comprehensive agreement that will pave the way to durable peace in the country" and justice for victims, she said.

- 260,000 dead -

The Colombian conflict started in the 1960s as a rural uprising for land rights that spawned the communist FARC.

The conflict has drawn in various leftist rebel groups, right-wing paramilitaries and drug gangs over the decades.

It has left 260,000 people dead, 45,000 missing and nearly seven million displaced, according to official figures.

Human rights groups say atrocities have been committed on all sides. Many families are still searching for missing loved ones.

Thursday's deal resolves one of the final points in peace talks between the government and the FARC, the country's largest rebel group.

However, the means of implementing the final peace deal remain to be settled after three-and-a-half years of negotiations.

The two sides said they would wait for the courts to rule on whether a referendum can be held to endorse the accord, and would accept the court's decision.

Although peace with the FARC would virtually end the conflict, other armed groups are still operating in Colombia.

A bid to hold peace talks between the government and the second-biggest rebel group, the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN), has stumbled because of its alleged kidnappings.

"The activity of the ELN above all and the criminal gangs means that we cannot yet talk of a complete end to the armed conflict," said Kyle Johnson, Colombia analyst for the International Crisis Group.

"It will be the end of Colombia's biggest armed conflict, but not all of them."


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