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WAR REPORT
Colombia signs contested new peace deal
By Alina Dieste
Bogota (AFP) Nov 25, 2016


Hurdles ahead in Colombia's race for peace
Bogota (AFP) Nov 25, 2016 - Colombia's government has signed a revised peace accord with the FARC rebels, but now faces political battles to implement the controversial deal and end the country's half-century conflict.

Here are five hurdles for President Juan Manuel Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as they seek to seal the peace -- with resistance led by the hawkish ex-president Alvaro Uribe.

- Enforcement -

Colombians narrowly rejected an earlier version of the accord in a humiliating referendum defeat for Santos on October 2.

Uribe has called for another referendum on the new deal. But Santos plans instead to pass it through Congress, where he holds a majority. It is expected to pass after a debate starting Tuesday.

- Need for speed -

A raft of laws and reforms will be needed to bring the accord's various chapters into effect. The legislation could take months to pass.

But with pressure to disarm the rebels as soon as possible for fear of violence, Santos may use a "fast track" procedure if the Constitutional Court permits it.

"Everything seems to indicate that the fast-track will be activated, which will make the legal implementation process quicker," said analyst Kyle Johnson of the International Crisis Group.

- Political pressures -

The government and FARC said the revised accord tightens judicial conditions for trying crimes of the conflict. Uribe complained it still grants impunity for war crimes.

He vowed to keep fighting for points where he says the accord should go further, and his party has threatened street protests.

Analysts warn the political conflict could complicate the accord, with general elections due in 2018.

"Political rivalry over the coming year could obstruct the implementation of the pact," said Jorge Restrepo, director of the conflict analysis center CERAC.

Political scientist Frederic Masse of Colombia's Externado University warned that "if the opposition wins the elections, it will be even harder to implement."

- Violence -

The FARC are by far the biggest rebel force in Colombia and the key anti-government actors in the war. But there is another, smaller rebel group that has yet to join the peace process.

The government's efforts to start talks with the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) have failed so far due to disputes over hostages.

"Unless there is a bilateral ceasefire with the ELN, there will be more fighting with the ELN in areas where the FARC are also present, which could sow confusion," Masse warned.

The conflict zones remain riven by territorial demands, gang feuds and local political quarrels, Restrepo says.

Remnants of right-wing paramilitaries that once took part in the conflict are feared to be lingering.

Then there are the country's drug gangs, which the peace accord is supposed to stamp out.

"When the FARC disappear, other causes for violence could emerge," Restrepo warned. "Violence and weapons could be channeled to other conflicts."

- Trump -

It is not known what will become of US President Barack Obama's pledge of $450 million in aid to end the conflict once his elected successor Donald Trump takes office in January.

Trump's abrasive approach to international relations has raised uncertainty in Latin America.

"It will be an obstacle, because the United States is swinging to the right and an enormous ally in implementing the accord is being lost," Restrepo said.

Concessions to the FARC on tackling the drug-trafficking that has funded them are a delicate part of the accord. Trump's tough approach to crime could have an impact.

"In anti-drug policies, which are at the heart of the accord, he will be more than an obstacle," Restrepo said.

"He will be an opponent."

Colombia's government and FARC rebels signed a controversial revised peace accord Thursday to end their half-century conflict, set to be ratified in Congress despite bitter opposition.

President Juan Manuel Santos and guerrilla leader Rodrigo "Timochenko" Londono signed the new deal with a pen made from a spent bullet, in a low-key ceremony in the capital Bogota.

The original deal -- signed with great fanfare in September -- was rejected by voters in a referendum last month, a shock upset that sent negotiators back to the drawing board.

The new plan bypasses a vote by the Colombian people, against bitter opposition from critics.

They say the revisions are only cosmetic and will still grant impunity for war crimes committed by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Santos, who won this year's Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the conflict, said the new deal was better than the original.

"It includes the hopes and observations of the vast majority of Colombians," he said after signing it.

"We all know in our souls that the cost of the armed conflict is too high."

- Fragile ceasefire -

The deal was immediately sent to Congress, where it is expected to pass after being debated next week. Santos and his allies hold a majority in the legislature.

The government and FARC both say they are under pressure for fear that their fragile ceasefire could break down.

A recent wave of alleged assassinations in conflict zones has added to calls to seal a deal fast.

But an aftermath of discord and uncertainty appears likely as opponents promised to keep resisting the peace plan, including with street protests.

"The country has spoken. It has said, 'Yes to peace, but without impunity,'" said top opponent Alvaro Uribe, a conservative ex-president and senator.

"What we have here remains total impunity," he told RCN television.

Speaking later in the Senate, he called for another referendum on some of the contested "basic issues" in the deal.

- Opposition objections -

The government and FARC negotiators' redrafted version of the deal includes concessions from the rebels on issues such as reparations for victims.

But Uribe complains it still ignores key demands, notably on punishing FARC leaders for the killings and kidnappings blamed on the group.

Under the deal, the Marxist rebels would disarm and become a political party.

The deal allows non-custodial sentences for convicted FARC members.

Uribe and his allies demand tougher punishments and say rebel leaders guilty of war crimes should not be allowed to run for office before completing their sentences.

A survey by pollster Datexco published on Wednesday found that 58 percent of people want more revisions to the deal.

- Bypassing voters -

Congress will open a live televised debate on the deal from next Tuesday.

On the streets of Bogota, passerby Overnis Diaz welcomed the agreement.

"We have lived through a war of more than 50 years. We want no more bloodshed," he said.

But another local, Dayanna Gil, said: "It should be approved through a popular vote... We should all have a say."

- Disarmament in months -

Santos said that five days after the deal is approved, the FARC rebels will begin gathering in demobilization zones and will hand over their weapons to the United Nations within five months.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon hailed Thursday's deal.

"The violent incidents that have taken place recently in conflict-affected areas underscore the relevance of many of the commitments contained in the agreement and the urgency of putting them into effect," his spokesman said in a statement.

The Colombian conflict has killed at least 260,000 people and displaced seven million since it erupted in 1964, according to the authorities.

It has drawn in various left- and right-wing armed groups, state forces and gangs.

Recent efforts by the government to start talks with the second-biggest rebel group, the leftist ELN, have failed due to disputes over hostages.

ELN rebels say Colombian army ops threaten talks
Quito (AFP) Nov 25, 2016 - Colombia's ELN rebels said Friday that military operations in one of their strongholds were endangering the life of a hostage and the prospects for stalled peace talks.

The warning came as President Juan Manuel Santos seeks to implement a peace deal signed Thursday with a larger rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and revive the aborted talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN).

Planned talks with the ELN broke down last month before they could start after the rebels failed to release hostage ex-congressman Odin Sanchez.

The guerrillas now accuse the army of putting Sanchez's life at risk by increasing operations in the jungle-covered department of Choco in northwestern Colombia, where he is being held.

"The increase in violent confrontations is endangering the process of freeing Odin Sanchez, preventing us from presenting proof he is still alive and putting his life at risk," the ELN said on Twitter.

They suggested that forces hostile to Santos within the army are seeking to "weaken the government and cause the ELN talks to fail."

The government earlier Friday demanded proof from the rebels that Sanchez is still alive.

Sanchez voluntarily went into ELN custody in April to take the place of his brother Patrocinio, who had fallen ill after three years in captivity.

Rumors of his death have swirled in recent days.

Santos won this year's Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end Colombia's half-century conflict, which has claimed 260,000 lives.

But tough opposition from hardline critics of both the newly revised FARC deal and the proposed ELN talks has cast uncertainty on the peace process.

FARC wants 'peace alliance' for Colombia 2018 vote
Bogota (AFP) Nov 25, 2016 - Colombia's FARC rebels called Friday for proponents of a controversial peace deal to support a single presidential candidate for elections in 2018, as the guerrillas prepare to turn to politics.

Speaking a day after signing a revised peace accord that has left the country deeply divided, FARC chief Rodrigo "Timochenko" Londono sought to strike an alliance to protect the deal from its opponents.

The proposed coalition would bring together what would once have been unlikely bedfellows: the FARC with President Juan Manuel Santos and his allies.

Timochenko wants them to team up against opponents, led by ex-president Alvaro Uribe, who oppose the deal as too soft on the FARC.

"We have begun calling for a candidacy that gathers together all the aspirations of those who want peace and guarantees the continuity of these accords," Timochenko told a press conference.

"The forces that oppose peace are already campaigning for the elections... so why don't we who want peace start talking now?" he said.

He did not name names, but one person floated as a possible candidate to succeed Santos is the government's chief negotiator in the two-year peace talks, Humberto de la Calle.

Colombia's future is hanging in the balance as Santos approaches the end of his second and final term in 2018.

Santos won this year's Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating a historic accord with the FARC, seeking to end a half-century conflict that has claimed 260,000 lives.

But after Uribe campaigned against the deal as granting impunity to war criminals, voters narrowly rejected it in a referendum last month.

The government and FARC have now signed a revised deal, which they plan to ratify in Congress -- bypassing a second referendum.

But Uribe and his Democratic Center party have vowed to fight it, setting up a heated battle that will likely spill over into the mid-2018 vote.


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Previous Report
WAR REPORT
Colombia to sign revised peace deal
Bogota (AFP) Nov 24, 2016
Colombia's government and FARC rebels will sign a controversial revised peace accord Thursday to end their half-century conflict, set to be ratified despite bitter complaints from opponents. Under pressure for fear that a fragile ceasefire could break down, the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) said they will sign the new deal at 1630 GMT and immediately take i ... read more


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