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Commentary: New world order?
by Arnaud De Borchgrave
Washington (UPI) Oct 31, 2011

Japan PM: Asia should act over China disputes: FT
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 31, 2011 - Asian countries should work together to encourage China's increasingly assertive military to obey the rules of the sea, Japan's prime minister has told the Financial Times.

Yoshihiko Noda's comments come against a background of rising tensions in the South and East China Seas, where several countries have competing territorial claims.

"(We will) appeal in all kinds of meetings for China to abide by the rules, he told the paper. "Pushing for the rules to be followed should be something done in cooperation with all the countries in the area."

Noda, who took office just two months ago, has previously urged Beijing to act as a "responsible member of the international community".

In September he became the latest senior Japanese figure to express concern over the speed and "opaqueness" of China's military build-up, which has seen huge rises in Beijing's military budget over a number of years.

Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011 after funding slowed last year.

Beijing has repeatedly sought to alleviate fears over its pursuit of sophisticated missiles, satellites, cyber-weapons and fighter jets, stressing that its policy is "defensive in nature".

However, China has become increasingly strident in its claims over the East China Sea and the South China Sea, most of which it views as its maritime territory, but where the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have their own claims.

The sea is believed to be extremely rich in oil and gas deposits, as well as being where shipping lanes link East Asia with Europe and the Middle East.

The area has long been considered one of Asia's potential military flashpoints, and in 1998 Vietnam fought a brief naval battle with China on one of the reefs that left 50 Vietnamese sailors dead.

Tokyo and Beijing, whose ties are often fraught because of differences over history, had a vicious diplomatic spat in September 2010 over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat captain whose vessel had collided with Japanese coastguard ships in waters near the islands. He was later released, but not before relations had been sent into deep freeze.


Is China now emerging as banker to the rest of the world?

The United States owes China $1.3 trillion -- out of a total U.S. public debt load of $14.1 trillion. And the United States also owes almost $1 trillion to Japan.

So clearly, 17 EU nations that share the euro currency couldn't turn to the United States to help bail them out of their liquidity crisis. China was the only power in the world that could afford to rescue the euro from collapse.

China also has almost 6 million workers on a wide variety of projects all over the world, from a casino complex near Nassau in the Bahamas to a mineral-rich mountain near Perth, Australia.

Greece is the sick man of Europe's common currency union. Its public debt hovers at 120 percent of gross domestic product. Undermining confidence in the euro, Italy is now coequal with Greece. It owes a staggering $2.7 trillion, or 120 percent of its gross national product, now the second largest in the world after the United States -- clearly too big to bail out.

Silvio Berlusconi's government is hanging by a thread, too weak to take any drastic remedial measures.

The best Italy could offer is to raise the pension age from 65 to 67 -- but not before 2026 -- 15 years hence.

Wherever they searched inside the euro zone and the larger Atlantic zone, there was no solution.

This left China. French President Nicolas Sarkozy phoned his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao to request support. Klaus Regling, the German chief of the European Financial Stability Facility, arrived in Beijing two days later in the role of mendicant.

For China, the role of Europe's savior following 66 years as a U.S. protectorate would be well-nigh irresistible. But China isn't about to jump through European hoops in to the monetary quicksands of Europe on the strength of a friendly Gallic phone call and a Teutonic visitor.

An emergency EU agreement after night-long negotiating sessions among aides to principals had banks agreeing to:

1) A 50 percent loss on their holdings in Greek government debt, tantamount to $141 billion loss on holdings of $282 billion.

2) 70 principal banks to raise an additional $150 billion the middle of next year to enable them better to cope with financial stress.

3) Raise a recently created eurozone rescue fund to $1.4 trillion.

Holders of Greek bonds have been told they must accept a loss of at least half the face value of their Greek paper.

Most big investors bet against Greece with "derivatives," financial instruments that turn a profit when there is a debt default. They are a sort of lucrative heads-I-win-tails-you-lose complex financial instruments designed principally to protect the banks.

European leaders had tinkered with a package of tentative measures to bailout its leaky bailout fund, which would 1) recapitalize Europe's banks and 2) reduce Greece's crushing debt load.

World markets keep grasping at straws in the euro wind tunnel.

The Dow Jones industrial average assumed it was a win for stability in Europe and registered its biggest monthly percentage gain in almost a quarter of a century.

Europe was still reeling under the Greek crisis that has been ongoing since the fall of 2009. European central bankers saw no grounds for the kind of optimism that drove up stock markets.

Gimmicky financial instruments, they said sotto voce, were used to boost the effectiveness of the bailout fund.

The monetary union's crisis is endemic. What's needed is the next step to proper integration, or a fiscal union. To make that possible, 17 European countries, with France and Germany in the vanguard, would have to surrender power to a federal rather than a confederal entity.

Thus, Europe's political chiefs -- e.g., Sarkozy and Merkel -- would be relegated to becoming de facto governors of a European province, no longer heads of state. The federal budget, as in the United States, would be determined by a federal government.

Under a federal government and a fiscal union, the president of France and the German chancellor would no longer be able to strut their stuff around the world as heads of countries. The likelihood of this happening short of a dire global crisis, range from nil to zero.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Sarkozy would rather opt out of their monetary union and revert to national currencies than accept the role of European provincial governors.

If the euro fails, said Merkel: "No one should think that a further half-century of peace and prosperity is assured (because) it isn't. We have a historic duty to defend and protect the unification of Europe that our forebears achieved after centuries of hatred and bloodshed."

In 1951, Europe's founding father Jean Monnet told us that Europe wouldn't exist as a single entity, like the United States, until it had common armed forces. The European Defense Community was designed to bring about a single army, air force and navy among the six founding members of a united Europe -- France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. Britain didn't join the European Economic Community until 1973.

Pierre Mendes France, the French prime minister who negotiated an end to the Indochina war in 1954, also torpedoed EDC. Had EDC gone forward, Gen. Charles de Gaulle, would have scrapped it too when he returned to power in 1958.

Since the end of the Cold War 20 years ago, nationalism in Europe has grown stronger.

In Greece today, newspaper cartoons show Greeks giving the Nazi salute to mock their government knuckling under Merkel's terms for a Greek bailout. European inspectors will be setting up shop in Athens to monitor Greek compliance with austerity measures over the next nine years to 2020.

In Portugal, labor leaders are protesting what they call "a state of occupation," a reference to inspectors from EU headquarters.

No one really wants the euro to fail. But no one wants the political instruments that would insure Europe against failure -- a federation, a fiscal union and a European Bank with federal authority.

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Japan will keep buying EU bailout bonds: Regling
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 31, 2011 - Japan has promised to keep buying eurozone bailout bonds, the head of the crisis fund told reporters on Monday, as the EU looks for outside help to solve its crippling debt problems.

The pledge will come as a relief to Klaus Regling, head of the European Financial Stability Facility, who came away empty handed from a mercy mission to Beijing last week.

"The Japanese government will continue to buy the EFSF bonds that we have been issuing," Regling said, Kyodo news reported.

Regling was speaking after meeting in Tokyo with Takehiko Nakao, Japan's top financial diplomat, on the latest stop of a tour widely believed to be aimed at shoring up support for the EU's efforts to stem a crisis that has sent ripples through the world economy.

Japan has so far purchased around 20 percent of the debt issued by the continent's bailout fund, and had indicated its willingness to buy more.

However, Dow Jones Newswires said officials had stopped short of guaranteeing they would maintain this level of support.

"I told (Regling) that we will continue to purchase EFSF bonds," one unnamed finance ministry official said, according to the agency.

After a marathon meeting in Brussels last week EU leaders announced measures including more than trebling the firepower of the fund to one trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) from 440 billion euros.

But with the European governments wary of putting more money into the fund, Regling was forced to look abroad.

He arrived in Tokyo over the weekend after a visit to Beijing during which China said it would seek more clarity before stumping up cash for the bailout.

On Friday Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda offered vague promises that he would help Europe overcome its sovereign debt crisis, but gave no details on what form this help might take.

"During the upcoming G20 summit, I will map out Japan's contribution to settling down the global economic crisis sparked from Europe," Noda told parliament, referring to the gathering of global heads in France this week.

"Our determination and capacity as politicians is challenged at a time like this when a storm blown from Europe is ripping through global financial markets."

His remarks, in a policy speech, came after Japan's Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Tokyo was ready to take "necessary measures" to help revamp the eurozone in the interests of its own economy.

Japan, already stumbling to recover from the effects of the March earthquake and tsunami and the nuclear emergency they sparked at Fukushima, is facing further headwinds from the slowdown in global trade.

The country's vital export sector is also battling a stubbornly strong yen, hitting profits and threatening domestic production, as investors flock to the currency as a safe haven, pushing up its value.

On Monday, Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time since August to drive down the value of the yen after it hit yet another post-war high against the dollar.

Azumi told reporters that Japan's move was unilateral and did not comment on the size of the intervention, but one analyst predicted it had been bigger than the last intervention in August.

The dollar climbed to 79.40 yen at around 0630 GMT after hitting a low of 75.32 yen in Oceanian trade earlier Monday. The euro was at 111.08 yen from 107.06 yen struck earlier Monday.

Manufacturers have also been troubled by the uncertainty over Europe's persistent debt problems.

After 10 hours of tense talks in Brussels, Europe's leaders on Thursday thrashed out a deal aimed at providing new funds to Greece in a bid to stop the region's crippling debt troubles sparking another global financial meltdown.



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China won't save Europe: Xinhua commentary
Shanghai (AFP) Oct 30, 2011
China's state media Sunday warned that the country will not be a "saviour" to Europe, as President Hu Jintao left for an official visit to the region including a G20 summit. Hu's visit has raised hopes that cash-rich China might make a firm commitment to the European bailout fund, but in a commentary, the official Xinhua news agency said Europe must address its own financial woes. "China ... read more


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