Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Military Space News .




THE STANS
Commentary: Pakistan: Geopolitical conundrum
by Arnaud De Borchgrave
Washington (UPI) May 15, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Sixty-six percent of Pakistan's 185 million people are under the age of 30 and almost all of them say they are worse off today than when they were 21.

They also say they would rather have a "strong leader" or one with a "strong hand" than a democracy.

Now they have what they wish -- Nawaz Sharif, 63, a former prime minister who was ousted in 1999 in Pakistan's fourth military coup since independence in 1947.

Thus, Pakistan has been ruled by the military for 33 years, or half of its life as an independent nation.

Almost 1 million Pakistani boys ages 6-16 attend single-discipline madrassas (Koranic schools), where they are taught the Koran by rote. These schools are free and the majority graduate with messages of hate against India, the United States and Israel.

Most Pakistanis (53 percent), a Pew Research Center analysis indicates, "doubt they can have any real political influence."

In Pakistan's first democratic transition from one elected civilian government to another in 66 years, Sharif returns to power.

Sharif spent most of his years out of power in exile as a guest of Saudi Arabia.

He was ousted in a military coup led by army Chief of Staff Pervez Musharraf.

He was returning from a conference in Sri Lanka only to be kept in a holding pattern until his aircraft almost ran out of fuel. His assigned runway in Karachi was blocked by obstacles. The plane landed on a nearby military strip and Sharif was arrested and accused of treason.

Now Sharif is back with a comfortable win over all opponents to take over a dirt-poor country of 185 million as it faces a bloody jihadist insurgency.

In the past year, some 33,000 people were killed in a wide variety of terrorist attacks that spared Sharif's Punjab province, where he reigns.

Punjabis are Pakistan's largest ethnic group -- more than 40 percent of the population. And Punjab borders on all the other provinces. It was also the center of early civilization 3,300 B.C.

Since his return from his Saudi exile (which he chose instead of a long prison sentence), Sharif spearheaded verbal attacks against U.S. drone bombings of Taliban guerrillas in Pakistan's federally administered border region. His sympathies are clearly with Taliban's guerrillas fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan.

But in the wake of his Pakistan Muslim League-N Party's electoral victory, Sharif could afford to be magnanimous. He visited in the hospital his runner-up, the former cricket star Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan's Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Khan, with two days left in the campaign, fell off a forklift as it raised him to a platform for his closing speech. Skull and back injuries seemed almost symbolic for anyone who had the wherewithal to challenge Sharif.

To some long-time observers of Pakistan's political stage, Taliban rule in Pakistan is dangerously close to reality.

In the frontier province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Khan's PTI and Jamat-e-Islami are the new coalition partners, which means born-again MMA (United Council of Action, a coalition of religious parties), influenced by and sympathetic to, the Taliban, fighting U.S. and NATO forces in neighboring Afghanistan.

Stripped of political verbiage, Pakistan's first truly free national election moves Taliban guerrillas dangerously close to checkmating the United States and its NATO allies as they prepare to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Sharif, Khan and Islamic fundamentalists are on the same political page. Sharif could take all but he is most likely to broaden his base before informing the United States about the conditions for a new relationship.

Sharif presumably believes that whatever military funding he may lose from the United States will be adequately compensated by his Saudi friends.

One long-time observer of Pakistan's political theater says privately this will put an end to U.S. drone strikes against Taliban targets in their own country.

And if it doesn't, he adds, drones will be shot down by anti-aircraft fire or attacked by Pakistani air force F-16s.

Cognoscenti pessimists predict that Sharif's support of Khan, the Taliban and the "fundos" -- local slang for fundamentalists -- is the beginning of an "evil nexus against all moderate forces, both nationally and internationally."

Even cognoscenti moderates say U.S. "wishful thinking needs to be replaced with serious analysis and a better comprehension of ground realities."

Failing that, both pessimists and moderates agree 2014 could turn out to be a geopolitical nightmare.

Always lurking in the background when politics spin out of control in Pakistan: the formidable military establishment.

Sharif was turfed out 14 years ago by Pakistan's fourth military coup since independence. The threat of a fifth has to be front and center in his political and geopolitical calculations.

.


Related Links
News From Across The Stans






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








THE STANS
Kabul imposed 'unjust' taxes on contractors: US watchdog
Washington (AFP) May 14, 2013
The Afghan government has levied "illegitimate" taxes on contractors working on US-funded reconstruction projects, possibly disrupting US military operations, a watchdog said Tuesday. Kabul's Ministry of Finance has violated agreements with Washington that are supposed to exempt contractors and sub-contractors from certain tax categories and imposed massive taxes, the Special Inspector Gener ... read more


THE STANS
U.S. seeks $220 million for Israel missile defense

Pentagon requests more funding for Israel's 'Iron Dome'

Lockheed Martin PAC-3 Missile Intercepts and Destroys Tactical Ballistic Missile in New Test

Japan's missile defence plan: some facts

THE STANS
Lockheed Martin and the MDA Conduct Test of New Air-Launched Missile Target Prototype

ESSM intercept of high-diving threat proves expanded defensive capability

Israel 'determined' to halt Syria missile deal: minister

Raytheon, US Army complete AI3 control vehicle tests

THE STANS
Germany cancels 'Euro Hawk' drone programme

US drone makes first catapult launch off a carrier: Navy

Insitu Pacific delivers ScanEagle UAS

Hydrogen-powered unmanned aerial drone sets endurance record

THE STANS
US Navy and Lockheed Martin Deliver Newest Secure Communications Satellite for Mobile Users

Harris picks up Brunei order for Falcon III

Department of Defense looking to allow Apple, Samsung devices

DARPA Seeks Clean-Slate Ideas For Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

THE STANS
Outside View: Whetting the Spearhead

Brazil picks suppliers for electronic border fence

Blueprints for 3D handgun take refuge in Pirate Bay

Raytheon completes first international delivery of Enhanced Paveway II GBU-50

THE STANS
Outside View: Pentagon's most perplexing challenge: People

Iran plays down US snub of UN disarmament body

Hagel announces unpaid leave for Pentagon civilians

Bulgaria launches new attempt to privatise defence group VMZ

THE STANS
Dalai Lama warns of power in hands of few

'Substance' partially closes US consulate in China: official

China emperors ruled via false prophecies: Xinhua

NATO gets new supreme commander

THE STANS
Going negative pays for nanotubes

Researchers develop unique method for creating uniform nanoparticles

Dark field imaging of rattle-type silica nanorattles coated gold nanoparticles in vitro and in vivo

'Super-resolution' microscope possible for nanostructures




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement