Russia has no appetite for a military confrontation with Turkey in Idlib but the Kremlin won't step back from its support for the Syrian regime's campaign to regain control of the province.

The killing of 33 soldiers by fire from forces of Russia's ally the Syrian regime -- the biggest Turkish military loss on the battlefield in recent years -- raised fears of war between the two historic rivals.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin of Russia were quick to hold telephone talks and plan a summit as soon as next week in Moscow, with Russian officials striking a conciliatory tone.

The two men -- both leading post-imperial societies they took over in the wake of economic crises -- have since 2016 forged an alliance that has riled the West and will be wary of undermining it for now.

"Russia is definitely not looking for a full-scale military confrontation with Turkey, nor is Turkey interested in confronting Moscow over Idlib," said Igor Delanoe, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow.

"The stakes are too high, especially for Ankara, considering all the economic leverage Moscow has in its hands to retaliate," he told AFP.

Russia has built the TurkStream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, is constructing Turkey's first nuclear power plant and above all has delivered an S-400 air defence system in a move that horrified NATO, of which Turkey is a key member.

Delanoe said Moscow believed Ankara had failed to comply with a 2018 agreement on Idlib to root out more extreme rebel fighters and the incident had given Turkey a taste of "what could be the cost of a military adventure in Idlib".

- 'No step back soon' -

The incident came as tensions soared after Erdogan -- who has vowed not to take a step back in Idlib -- gave Syrian forces a February 29 deadline to pull back from their positions.

Idlib is the last remaining rebel bastion in Syria and Turkey wants to keep its influence over the area even once Syria's civil war ends.

Yet this is an obstacle to Moscow's ambition of seeing President Bashar al-Assad regain control of the entire country and confirming the greatest Russian military victory of the post-Soviet era.

Moscow-based expert on Turkey-Russia relations Kerim Has said that Russia's "long-term strategy" for Syria had not changed but it was keen not to antagonise Turkey, especially given the closeness of economic and energy ties as well as the cooperation on the S-400s.

"A full military confrontation in Syria is now less possible" after a day of intense diplomacy, he told AFP, while warning that "risks are brimming on the ground" and any clash could send tensions spiralling again.

"Russia is going to continue its operations in Idlib. It is not going to take a step back soon," he added.

While Russian officials were careful not to provoke Turkey any further, the Kremlin said the Turkish troops were not manning observation points agreed under a 2018 deal but positioned among armed groups deemed by Moscow to be "terrorists".

- 'Worst-case scenario' -

Relations between modern Russia and Turkey -- whose predecessor empires fought centuries of wars over influence in the Black Sea region -- have swung back and forth over the last years.

There were fears of military confrontation in November 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane over Syria. But a reconciliation deal was clinched in 2016 and Putin rapidly backed Erdogan when he faced a coup bid that summer.

Even the assassination of Russia's ambassador to Ankara in December 2016 by an off-duty police officer did not derail the intensification of ties as both sides began a joint effort to bring peace to Syria.

Alexey Khlebnikov, Middle East Analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, founded by the Kremlin to advise on foreign policy issues, said that while risks existed, a direct confrontation was the "worst-case scenario".

He said Russia's immediate priority was not to have Damascus retake all of Idlib but to have the strategic M4 and M5 highways under Syrian army control.

"So far, all indicators show that the two countries are ready for de-escalation," he said, but added: "The risks of an incidental escalation are way higher now. An escalation might happen and we can't rule it out."

Turkey-Russia tensions soar after deadly Syria strike
Istanbul (AFP) Feb 28, 2020 - The leaders of Russia and Turkey held crisis talks Friday after 33 Turkish soldiers died in a regime air strike in Syria, prompting President Donald Trump to urge an end to the Moscow-backed Syrian offensive against rebel holdouts.

The attack by Syrian forces took place late Thursday in the northwestern province of Idlib, where President Bashar al-Assad is waging a fierce campaign to oust rebels from their last stronghold.

Trump "condemned" the attack on Turkey's troops and joined his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in calling jointly on Russia and Syria to "halt" the Idlib operation, the White House said.

Hours after the strike, Turkey warned it was opening the gates for refugees to flee to Europe, a move that could have major repercussions for its western neighbours which swiftly moved to boost border security.

The bombardment added to weeks of tensions between rebel supporter and NATO member Ankara and Damascus ally Moscow, and heightened international concerns about the plight of people living in the battleground province.

The United Nations called for an immediate ceasefire and NATO held emergency talks, while the EU warned of the risk of a "major open international military confrontation".

But both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan appeared keen to scale down the tensions, expressing "serious concern" about the situation in their telephone talks, the Kremlin said.

- 'Room for dialogue' -

It was the highest single death toll since the Turkish army first intervened in Syria in 2016, and brought the total number of Turkish troops killed in Idlib this month to 53.

Turkey said it retaliated by hitting more than 200 regime targets in drone and artillery bombardments.

The reprisals killed 20 Syrian soldiers, according to a monitoring group, but there was no immediate confirmation from Damascus.

Adding to the tensions, Moscow said two of its warships were transitting through the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul in plain sight of the city.

But the Kremlin said after the leaders' call that a Turkey-Russia summit may be on the cards.

"There is always room for dialogue," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"The conversation was detailed and devoted to the necessity to do everything" to implement a largely ineffective ceasefire deal agreed in 2018 between the two countries for Idlib.

- 'Ethnic cleansing' -

Lavrov said Russia was ready to help improve the security of Turkish troops in Syria after the defence ministry said the slain soldiers had been among "terrorist groups" and had not disclosed their presence.

The UN has repeatedly warned that the fighting in Idlib could potentially create the most serious humanitarian crisis since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011.

But Russian vetoes, often backed by China, have chronically crippled UN action.

Turkey again called on the international community to establish a no-fly zone over Idlib, where regime forces have since December clawed back chunks of the region, forcing close to one million people to flee their homes and shelters amid bitter cold.

Erdogan's communications director Fahrettin Altun accused Assad on Twitter of "conducting ethnic cleansing" to drive millions out of Idlib but said Turkey does not have the resources to take in more.

Turkey has already taken in around four million Syrian refugees and is wary of more arrivals in the face of growing popular discontent about their presence.

But Turkey's neighbours took swift action after Ankara threatened to go back on a deal with the EU and open the way for refugees to go to Europe.

"We will no longer keep the doors closed for refugees who want to go to Europe," a Turkish official told AFP.

- Barbed wire on army trucks -

In response, both Bulgaria and Greece said they were tightening border security as groups of migrants moved westwards across Turkey.

Greek border guards blocked hundreds of migrants from entering the country at the Kastanies border crossing in the northeast of the country as army trucks loaded with barbed wire raced past.

The EU called on Ankara to uphold its side of the 2016 migrant pact which was aimed at stemming the flow of refugees and migrants landing on Greek shores.

It also voiced deep alarm about the situation in Syria after Thursday's bloodshed.

"There is a risk of sliding into a major open international military confrontation," said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

"It is also causing unbearable humanitarian suffering and putting civilians in danger."

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres had called for an immediate ceasefire.

"Without urgent action, the risk of even greater escalation grows by the hour," UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

NATO allies Washington and Paris said they stood by Turkey, with the US State Department calling for "an immediate end to this despicable offensive by the Assad regime, Russia and Iranian-backed forces".

In a phone call Friday, Trump and Erdogan agreed that the Syrian regime, Russia, and the Iranian regime "must halt their offensive before more innocent civilians are killed and displaced," the White House said.

On Thursday, jihadists and Turkish-backed rebels had re-entered Saraqeb, a key Idlib crossroads town they had lost earlier in February, reversing one of the main gains of the government's devastating offensive.

The counter-offensive could, however, be short-lived as the Russian-backed Syrian troops continued to chip away at other parts of the rebel bastion, capturing 20 localities.

On Friday, four members of a single family, two of them children, were killed in air strikes, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, adding to more than 400 such deaths since December.

Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

Egocentric US is wrecking global arms control, says Russia
Geneva (AFP) Feb 25, 2020
The US is following an egocentric foreign policy that is leading to global arms control agreements being devalued, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday. It is vital "to stop the degradation of international arms control", Lavrov told the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, urging Washington to resume talks on halting nuclear proliferation and banning weapons in space. "We are seeing a return to dangerous destructive trends caused by the revival of aggressive foreign policy ego ... read more