A decision on whether to replace the country's ageing Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile system is expected within the next four years, he told The Guardian newspaper.

Asked if Britain would face a nuclear enemy in 15 years, Reid said: "The decision is never an easy one, and I think recent history teaches us it is impossible in most cases to predict where your enemy will come from."

He noted that no one predicted the Falklands invasion or former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's attack on Kuwait.

"So to say whether we might have a nuclear enemy in 15 years' time is a difficult question to answer, other than to say history probably suggests we will," said the minister.

Reid said while Britain had worked hard to minimise its nuclear deterrent "it is the case that others (have) been trying to develop and in some cases have developed their nuclear weapons."

The defence minister gave as examples North Korea, Pakistan and India.

He said it was unwise to think just because the threat of international terrorism was more prominent, older dangers would diminish.

"My track record and that of the government on nuclear weapons -- maintaining while ensuring it is the minimum -- is one for all to see, as well as being a good one."

Reid said it was vital to have a full and open debate about any new deterrent.

"In the course of the next four years this decision will take place. It will inevitably be more public than such decisions in the past."

Faced by accusations that he has secretly made a decision to spend up to 20 billion pounds (36 billion dollars, 30 billion euros) on a replacement system, the minister insisted: "It is not a decision about which I have received any advice, papers, options or made any decisions."

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