Colonel Ted Martin tied the turnaround in Baghdad's Rashid district to a "decisive defeat" of Iranian-backed Shiite forces in May and June.

Since then, he said there has been a dramatic drop in levels of violence, signs that the civilian populace is turning away from the Shiite militias and growing confidence in the Iraqi security forces.

"Just about a week ago I was talking to the commanding general, and I told him I thought we were on the cusp of achieving durable security," he told reporters here via video link from Baghdad.

Martin's remarks were confined to conditions in Rashid, the southern quadrant of the city, where his 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 4th Infantry Division is teamed with Iraqi security forces.

But conditions there echo a dramatic decline in violence overall that military commanders are monitoring with an eye to making deeper cuts in US force levels. As of last week, there were 143,000 US troops in Iraq.

When his brigade arrived in March for a 15 month tour, Martin was skeptical that "sustainable security" was in reach.

"I thought as I arrived in the country that was a pretty lofty goal, a tough mission," he said.

There had been 824 attacks in the district in July 2007, an average of 27 a day, "making Rashid one of the most dangerous places in Iraq," he said.

In April, more than year into the US surge strategy, insurgent attacks in the district were still averaging five a day, he said. By July they had fallen to 1.5 a day.

Fewer armor piercing bombs of a kind linked to Iran are turning up, and insurgents are resorting to cruder, less effective explosive devices for attacks, Martin said.

"What I'm seeing on the battlefield right now is telling me there has been a fundamental change in the security situation in Iraq, and we are moving out fast to exploit that," he said.

"What I'm seeing is a level of confidence I haven't seen before, and a willingness to take a risk -- to open a store, transit the area, to drive around, to spend a little money on better clothes.

"One thing I've noticed is that when the security situation is better, people dress better," he said.

Martin said his soldiers still face threats, mainly from roadside bombs, and he needs more time to be certain that security will hold.

"I've got quite a bit of time here in Iraq, and I've had different feelings in my gut. Now my gut is telling me is if we're not there, we're close," he said.

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