The admission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of Albania and Croatia means most of Serbia is now surrounded by the military alliance which bombed it in 1999 over its forces' violent crackdown in Kosovo.

But Dragan Sutanovac, Serbia's defence minister, downplayed the significance of NATO encroaching on a region where his country was the dominant force during the 1990s wars that shattered the former communist Yugoslavia.

"I don't think that (Albania and Croatia's NATO accession) will influence the security of our country," Sutanovac said in an interview with the Belgrade daily Blic.

"On the other hand, it's a fact Croatia already has benefits from its admission to NATO," he said referring to associated reforms and the stability membership brings to Balkan nations.

NATO membership "would speed our path to the European Union, but we can't bypass the fact that NATO is present (in Kosovo), and that we were bombed in 1999."

In 2006, Serbia joined NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme -- a cooperation framework for NATO member aspirants -- but it has close ties to Russia and adopted a policy of military neutrality the next year.

Belgrade-based analysts say Albania's NATO membership in particular could be problematic for Serbia, if Belgrade decides to drop its neutrality and bid to join the club, which would need to be approved by a referendum.

Tirana's government was one of the first to recognise the independence of ethnic Albanian-majority Kosovo from Serbia 14 months ago. Belgrade says it will never accept the loss of the disputed territory.

Zoran Dragisic, professor at Belgrade University's security faculty, said both Albania and Croatia could follow the example of Greece, which vetoed Macedonia's NATO entry in 2008 over disagreement about the latter's name.

"By entering NATO, the political capacity of Albania has been increased (and) Serbia is now in an unenviable political situation," Dragisic said.

But other analysts said while possible, such a hardline position was unlikely to be adopted by NATO's newest members under pressure from powerful alliance nations like the United States.

"We are in a really unfavourable position because we find ourselves encircled by NATO, and Kosovo institutions will strive to use the stronger political capacity of Albania," said Aleksandar Radic, a Serb military analyst.

"Serbia should re-examine its military neutrality, try to work out what its goals are and set about implementing a strategic plan," said Radic.

Dragan Vuksic, a former soldier now with the non-governmental Forum for International Relations, warned the same could happen with Croatia, which Serbia is threatening to file a counter genocide suit against.

"We can also expect a blockade by Croatia, if they see that fits with their interests and suits them at some stage," Vuksic told the daily Alo.

However Daniel Korski, analyst at the London-based European Council on Foreign Relations, said the biggest worry for Serbia was not the threat of NATO, but rather the falling standards of its once-feared army.

"Military development is a bit like tennis -- the better a player you play with, the better you become," he told AFP in a telephone interview.

"The fact that the Serbs have not deployed on a series of operations along with better-equipped, better-manned and better-controlled armies means that they are sliding behind in the military quality stakes."

Serbia, whose government's main priority is EU membership by 2014 on condition this excludes recognition of Kosovo, plans to make its army professional in line with NATO's PfP programme.

"I don't think it's relevant anymore to think about the strength of the Serbian army vis a vis the other armies in the region since I don't think a regional inter-state war is likely," said Korski.

Share This Article With Planet Earth

del.icio.us	Digg	Reddit
YahooMyWeb	Google	Facebook

Related Links

Memory Foam Mattress Review

SPACE MEDIA NETWORK PROMOTIONS Solar Energy Solutions Tempur-Pedic Mattress Comparison ... Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News