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Europe will struggle to plug Ukraine's US military aid gap: analysts
Europe will struggle to plug Ukraine's US military aid gap: analysts
By Fabien Zamora and Mathieu Rabechault with Viktoria Lukovenko in Kyiv and AFP's data graphics team
Paris (AFP) Mar 4, 2025

The freezing of US military aid to Ukraine leaves dangerous weak spots in its defence against Russia's invasion, and European allies will struggle to plug the holes, analysts say.

After Washington announced the suspension of aid in a row with Kyiv over the US approach to ending the conflict, some experts estimated Ukraine can last for only a few months before the strain starts to show.

The United States single-handedly accounted for nearly half of the value of military aid to Ukraine from 2022 to 2024, according to the Kiel Institute, a German research group.

"Taking into account the weapons that have already come to Ukraine, and what we have, and what we actually produce ourselves, we can withstand at least six months without the nature of the war changing significantly," political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told AFP.

Here are facts about Ukraine's assets in the key areas of air defence, long-range strike capability, artillery and reconnaissance -- and how much it has been relying on support from the United States and others.

- Air defence -

Ukraine needs sophisticated air defence guns to shoot down the barrages of missiles and drones that Russia fires daily at its towns and infrastructure.

It has seven US-made Patriot air defence systems, provided by the United States, Germany and Romania.

"Patriot is very important to protect our cities, not troops," said researcher Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, a think tank in Kyiv.

To continue using the Patriot systems, Ukraine will need munitions and spare parts, said Leo Peria-Peigne, a researcher at the French international affairs institute IFRI.

"Will other countries be able to buy parts from the Americans and pass them on to the Ukrainians, or will the Americans oppose that? We do not know."

Germany is building a factory to make munitions for the Patriot system -- the first outside the United States -- but production is not expected to start there until 2027.

In addition, for high-altitude interceptions, Ukraine has two European-made SAMP/T systems from Italy and France.

It has some similar systems of its own and has been provided with others for shorter-range interceptions.

Analysts say that Ukraine's European allies will struggle to make up for an end to US Patriot support.

"Europe has some real shortcomings in this area," said Yohann Michel, a researcher at the French university Lyon-3.

"The SAMP/T are very good but not very mobile, and they are not produced in sufficient numbers," he said.

"Production will have to be increased, or even shifted somewhere else outside France and Italy."

To make that work, "you would have needed to start the process two years ago," added Peria-Peigne of IFRI.

If Patriot output declines, researcher Yohann Michel said Europe could send Ukraine fighter jets to intercept missiles "and to repel the Russian bombers that are striking Ukraine".

European allies have already given Ukraine F16 and Mirage 2000-5 fighters -- and Michel judged that they have the capacity to provide more.

- Long-range strike power -

To strike back at Russia far behind the front line, Ukraine currently relies on US aid.

Washington has supplied it with around 40 ATACMS ground-to-ground rocket-launch systems mounted on HIMAR mobile units.

Such items are rare in Europe, with inferior Czech systems the closest equivalent there currently, said Michel.

To replace them, "the Europeans would have to quickly develop their own system, or else buy systems from South Korea," he said.

For launching deep strikes from the air, Kyiv uses "mostly European and Ukrainian equipment", said Samus of the New Geopolitics Research Network.

These include European-made Storm Shadow missiles -- also known as SCALP. But it is not known how many of these Ukraine currently has on order, said Peria-Peigne.

- Artillery -

One area where Europe is in a position to help is in the big guns needed on the battlefield.

In artillery equipment, "Europe has really raised its production capacity and Ukraine too is in a less bad position," said Peria-Peigne.

The European Union has forecast it will produce 1.5 million 155mm shells this year -- more than the 1.2 million it said were produced in the United States.

Ukraine for its part has come up with its own anti-tank weapons, said Michel. It has also developed remotely piloted drones that can fire missiles at Russian positions.

- Reconnaissance -

US exports are considered indispensable for obtaining the satellites, drones and other aircraft needed for spying effectively on enemy positions.

"It is very important for us to continue to receive satellite intelligence from the United States," said analyst Fesenko.

For such reconnaissance, European countries "have tools, but they are not as extensive," added Michel.

"A lot of them depend completely on the United States in this area."

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