Finland's president and prime minister said on Thursday they were in favour of joining NATO and a formal decision would be taken this weekend, after Russia's war in Ukraine sparked a swift U-turn in opinion.

The Kremlin immediately responded to the announcement, saying Finnish membership in the Western military alliance was "definitely" a threat to Russia.

Neighbouring Sweden, which like Finland has been military non-aligned for decades, is also expected to announce its decision in the coming days, very likely at a meeting on Sunday of Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's Social Democratic Party.

The two countries are widely seen submitting their membership bids in unison.

"Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay," President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a joint statement.

"NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance," the statement said.

A special committee will announce Helsinki's formal decision on a membership bid on Sunday, it added.

Moscow has repeatedly warned Stockholm and Helsinki of consequences if they were to join the Western military alliance.

"Joining NATO would not be against anyone," Niinisto, who has often served as a mediator between Russia and the West, told reporters on Wednesday.

His response to Russia would be: "You caused this. Look in the mirror," he said.

As recently as January, amid tensions between the West and Russia, Marin said a bid would be "very unlikely" during her current mandate, which ends in April 2023.

- Rattled by war -

But after its powerful eastern neighbour invaded Ukraine on February 24, Finland's political and public opinion swung dramatically in favour of membership as a deterrent against Russian aggression.

A poll published on Monday by public broadcaster Yle showed that a record 76 percent of Finns now support joining the alliance, up from the steady 20-30 percent registered in recent years.

A country of 5.5 million people, Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border with Russia.

In 1939, it was invaded by the Soviet Union.

Finns put up a fierce fight during the Winter War but were ultimately forced to cede a huge stretch of its eastern Karelia province in a peace treaty with Moscow.

Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen said Thursday a NATO bid would "significantly raise the threshold for Finland to be the target of a military attack."

"This is a defensive solution that threatens no one," he wrote on his blog.

Kaikkonen said he hoped Sweden would come to the same conclusion and "we could apply for membership together."

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde told news agency TT that "Finland's decision is naturally of great importance to Sweden" and said her government would announce its decision "soon".

European Council President Charles Michel wrote on Twitter that Finland joining NATO would "greatly contribute to European security. With Russia waging war in Ukraine it's a powerful signal of deterrence."

- Next steps -

There has been broad political support for NATO membership in Finland, amid a general view that Russia's invasion has eroded the security situation in Europe.

A large majority of parties in Finland's parliament back a bid, as well as parliament's defence committee.

Finland and Sweden have long cooperated with NATO, and are expected to be able to join the alliance quickly.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday Finland's entry would be "smooth and swift".

The next step is for Finland's President and Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy -- a body made up of the president, prime minister and up to six other cabinet ministers -- to meet on Sunday.

The committee will make the formal decision whether to submit a Finnish application.

The proposal will then be presented to parliament for a debate, which is expected to take place on Monday.

After an official bid is submitted to the alliance, negotiations get underway. Lawmakers in all 30 NATO member states then need to ratify Finland's application, a process that can take months.

Foreign Minister Haavisto said on Tuesday he believed Finland could be a full NATO member "at the earliest" on October 1.

"The NATO secretary general has said that this process will take between four and 12 months. My own impression is that it might be closer to four months than 12 months," Haavisto said.

As candidate countries are not covered by NATO's Article 5 mutual defence agreement, both Finland and Sweden have sought assurances from NATO members that they would be protected while awaiting full membership.

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO? Five things to know
Stockholm (AFP) May 12, 2022 - After decades of staying out of military alliances, Finland and Sweden are about to decide whether to apply to join NATO, as a deterrent against aggression from Eastern neighbour Russia.

The Nordic neighbours are expected to act in unison, with both expressing a desire for their applications to be submitted simultaneously if they decide to go that route.

- Historic U-turns -

For decades, a majority of Swedes and Finns were in favour of maintaining their policies of military non-alignment.

But Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 sparked a sharp U-turn.

The change was especially dramatic in Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border with Russia.

After two decades during which public support for NATO membership remained steady at 20-30 percent, polls now suggest that more than 75 percent of Finns are in favour.

During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for assurances from Moscow that it would not invade. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Finland remained militarily non-aligned.

Sweden, meanwhile, adopted an official policy of neutrality at the end of the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century.

Following the end of the Cold War, the neutrality policy was amended to one of military non-alignment.

- Close NATO partners -

While remaining outside NATO, both Sweden and Finland have formed ever-closer ties to the Alliance. Both joined the Partnership for Peace programme in 1994 and then the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997.

Both countries are described by the Alliance as some of "NATO's most active partners" and have contributed to NATO-led missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Sweden's and Finland's forces also regularly take part in exercises with NATO countries and have close ties with Nordic neighbours Norway, Denmark and Iceland -- which are all NATO members.

- Sweden's military -

For a long time, Swedish policy dictated that the country needed a strong military to protect its neutrality.

But after the end of the Cold War, it drastically slashed its defence spending, turning its military focus toward peacekeeping operations around the world.

In 1990, defence spending accounted for 2.6 percent of GDP, compared to 1.2 percent in 2020, according to the government.

Mandatory military service was scrapped in 2010 but reintroduced in 2017 as part of Sweden's rearmament following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Combining its different branches, the Swedish military can field some 50,000 soldiers.

In March 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden announced it would increase spending again, targeting two percent of GDP "as soon as possible".

- Finland's military -

While Finland has also made some defence cuts, in contrast to Sweden it has maintained a much larger army since the end of the Cold War.

The country of 5.5 million people now has a wartime strength of 280,000 troops plus 600,000 reservists, making it significantly larger than any of its Nordic neighbours despite a population half the size of Sweden's.

In early April, Finland announced it would further boost its military spending, adding more than two billion euros ($2.1 billion) over the next four years. It has a defence budget of 5.1 billion euros ($5.4 billion) for 2022.

- Memories of war -

While Sweden has sent forces to international peacekeeping missions, it has not gone to war for over 200 years.

The last conflict it fought was the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814. It maintained its neutral stance through the two World Wars.

Finland's memories of warfare are much fresher. In 1939, it was invaded by the Soviet Union.

Finns put up a fierce fight during the bloody Winter War, which took place during one of the coldest winters in recorded history. But it was ultimately forced to cede a huge stretch of its eastern Karelia province in a peace treaty with Moscow.

A 1948 "friendship agreement" saw the Soviets agree not to invade again, as long as Finland stayed out of any Western defence cooperation.

The country's forced neutrality to appease its stronger neighbour coined the term "Finlandization".

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