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THE STANS
In Afghanistan, a long war and a shifting strategy

NATO: Allies must ensure Afghan progress irreversible
Brussels (AFP) Dec 16, 2010 - The NATO-led mission in Afghanistan must seize on progress shown in a US review of the war to ensure that the gains are irreversible, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Thursday. "The review shows progress in Afghanistan," Rasmussen said in a statement. "Our strategy is sound and we have in place the necessary resources to accomplish it." "Now we have to consolidate those gains and make them irreversible. This is a challenging task, but we are determined to see it through," the head of the 28-nation alliance said.

The police review found that US President Barack Obama's troop surge in Afghanistan has made progress in curbing the Taliban and severely weakening Al-Qaeda, but gains are not yet durable and sustainable. Obama has deployed 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan, raising the number of soldiers in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to around 150,000, in an all-out effort to defeat the insurgency. NATO leaders agreed at a summit last month to begin handing control of the battlefield to Afghan security forces next year with the aim of ceding the lead nationwide by 2014. "As we look back on 2010, we see that we have made hard-fought progress," Rasmussen said. "In 2011, all NATO Allies and their partners in ISAF will continue to work together to make Afghanistan - and our own nations -- safer."

Pace of US drawdown in Afghanistan unclear: Gates
Washington (AFP) Dec 16, 2010 - Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday the pace of a US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan starting next year remained an open question, even as he voiced optimism about the course of the war. Speaking at a press conference on the release of a White House policy review on the war, Gates said progress was "palpable" on the ground but that it was too soon to say how many troops could be pulled out after a target date of July 2011. "In terms of when the troops come out, the president has made clear it'll be conditions-based," Gates said. "In terms of what that line looks like beyond July 2011, I think the answer is, we don't know at this point. "But the hope is that as we progress, that those drawdowns will be able to accelerate."

Nearly 100,000 US troops are stationed in Afghanistan, after President Barack Obama ordered in 30,000 reinforcements a year ago in a bid to turn the tide in the nine-year-old war. Gates said the pace of a gradual withdrawal of US and allied troops would depend in part on efforts to expand and train Afghan security forces, citing major advances in recent months. The White House review said the troop surge had made progress in curbing the Taliban and damaging Al-Qaeda, but warned security gains won in a bloody year were "fragile" and reversible. The review predicted a "responsible reduction" of US forces could begin next July, without indicating how many troops might depart. The administration has said an initial drawdown might involve no more than 2,000 troops.
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 16, 2010
The United States and its allies have waged war in Afghanistan for more than nine years, longer than the Soviet army in the 1980s, but the White House said Thursday a troop buildup would pave the way for an eventual withdrawal by 2015.

Since the war began in 2001, the strategy of the US-led force has changed dramatically.

-- WAR ON TERROR: 2001

Less than a month after the September 11 attacks, then president George W. Bush -- declaring a "war on terror" -- launches an assault on Afghanistan to strike at Al-Qaeda, and to topple the Taliban regime for giving safe harbor to Osama bin Laden's network.

The Americans rely on a small force of CIA paramilitary teams, special operations forces and US warplanes to back up the Taliban's Afghan rivals -- the Northern Alliance.

The Taliban fall from power within days as Al-Qaeda training bases are knocked out, but bin Laden and his associates flee over the border into Pakistan. About 1,000 US Marines deploy later in November, the first substantial ground forces that later rise to about about 10,000 in 2002.

-- FORGOTTEN WAR: 2002-2007

The US focus shifts to Iraq, as Bush orders an attack on Iraq in 2003 to "disarm" Saddam Hussein's regime. US forces struggle against an Iraqi insurgency and spiraling sectarian violence, overshadowing the war in Afghanistan.

The Taliban and other Islamist militants regroup and re-emerge by 2005, exploiting sanctuaries in neighboring Pakistan while staking out strongholds along the eastern border and in the mainly Pashtun south. US troop levels hover around 20,000, rising to 27,000 in February 2007.

"In Afghanistan, we do what we can," Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in 2007. "In Iraq, we do what we must."

-- WAKE UP CALL: 2008

With Taliban attacks on the rise, the Bush administration faces mounting criticism that Afghanistan has been neglected. Both presidential candidates promise to send more troops, with Barack Obama arguing that Iraq has served as a "distraction."

The US commander, General David McKiernan, appeals for major reinforcements, advocating a counter-insurgency strategy designed to win over Afghans instead of merely targeting Taliban forces. At the end of his term, Bush orders thousands of troops to Afghanistan, but far less than the 30,000 requested by McKiernan.

-- OBAMA'S WAR: 2009

During the first months of his presidency, Obama decides to double the number of troops on the ground, with the force rising to 68,000, while unveiling plans to end the Iraq mission. He says the aim of the war is to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat" Al-Qaeda.

After a protracted debate inside the administration that pits US military coommanders against some advisers in the White House, Obama announces in December a "surge" of 30,000 additional troops, bringing the US contingent to nearly 100,000 along with nearly 50,000 allied troops.

The strategy focuses on securing key towns in the Taliban's southern strongholds while building up Afghan forces. At the same time, the CIA expands a covert bombing campaign against Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders in neighboring Pakistan, using unmanned aircraft.

Along with the troop buildup, Obama sets a deadline of July 2011 to start the gradual withdrawal of US forces, but the pace of the drawdown remains unclear.

-- THE WAY OUT: 2014

Given frustrations with the Kabul government and the drawn-out war, US officials in 2010 talk about "Afghan good enough," looking for more realistic goals to clear the way for an eventual exit.

At a November summit, NATO backs a plan for Afghan forces to take over security by the end of 2014, with the transition starting in 2011. Pentagon officials say the 2014 date is an "aspirational" goal.

The White House policy review issued Thursday calls for handing over security to the Afghans in some districts in "early" 2011 but acknowledges the persistent problem of militant sanctuaries in Pakistan.



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