Iran-Saudi deal boosts hopes for more Gulf cooperation

Iran-Saudi deal boosts hopes for more Gulf cooperation
By Payam Doost Mohamadi
Tehran (AFP) April 6, 2023

Iran's resumption of diplomatic ties with long-time rival Saudi Arabia has raised the Islamic republic's hopes for improved security, economic and trade cooperation with its neighbours and within the Gulf.

Riyadh and Tehran cut top-level engagement in 2016, but their foreign ministers on Thursday signed the Beijing Agreement in China's capital, after senior security officials from both Gulf powers concluded its terms last month.

Longstanding regional dynamics now look set to be reshaped.

- Defusing regional tensions -

Promoting regional harmony is a declared objective of the China-brokered deal, which emphasised the importance of boosting bilateral cooperation to ensure "security, stability and prosperity in the region", according to the joint statement released after the Beijing meeting.

Hopes have been raised for a negotiated resolution to Yemen's long-running conflict, where Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition supporting the internationally recognised government since 2015 and Iran-backed Huthi rebels control swathes of the country's west.

The Yemen conflict has killed hundreds of thousands of people directly or indirectly, and left millions on the brink of famine, according to the United Nations which calls it the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

Tehran and Riyadh know that "for seven years, this spirit of confrontation has caused irreparable losses to the Muslim world, to the region as well as to their two nations", said Iranian analyst Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former head of parliament's national security committee.

- More Gulf cooperation -

Resumed Iran-Saudi ties give Tehran hopes of closer relations with its Arab neighbours, two of which have normalised relations with Iran's sworn enemy, Israel, in agreements known as the Abraham Accords.

For Iran, rapprochement with Saudi Arabia represents "the best bulwark" against the Abraham Accords concluded in 2020 between Israel and Arab countries including the UAE and Bahrain in the Gulf, according to Falahatpisheh.

"Detente with Saudi Arabia allows Iran to avoid the formation of a united regional front at a time of heightened tensions with the United States and Israel," said Ali Vaez, from the Belgium-based war monitor International Crisis Group.

A thaw in relations could encompass Bahrain, which followed Saudi's lead in cutting ties with Tehran in 2016, the United Arab Emirates, which has limited its diplomatic relations, and also Egypt.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also stated an intention to increase ties with Asia and further distance Tehran from Israel and the United States.

- Boosting Iran's economy -

The deal could impact global energy markets as both countries are major oil and gas producers and where any disruption to production typically leads to price fluctuations.

"There are huge areas for cooperation in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors between the two countries," said Keyvan Kashefi, a board member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce.

With the prospect of increased regional cooperation, Iran is hoping to better manage the economic troubles it has faced since biting US economic sanctions were reimposed in 2018, when then-president Donald Trump withdrew Washington from a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran.

"Developing economic and trade cooperation" with Saudi Arabia is one of Tehran's objectives, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said after Thursday's Beijing meeting.

Rampant inflation and record depreciation of Iran's currency the rial against the dollar have blighted its economy.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan last month flagged potential investment in Iran.

He said there were "a lot of opportunities" in Iran, and that he couldn't see any reason to prevent investments taking place between the two Gulf heavyweights.

- Religious ramifications -

Resuming international flights should also increase religious exchanges between Shiite-majority Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, considered to be the pillars of the two main Islamic sects.

Another point of the agreement is the "resumption of umrah" by Iranian pilgrims following Riyadh-imposed limitations for the past several years.

The umrah is a pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia that can be taken at any time of the year, in contrast to the hajj, which takes place on dates according to the Islamic lunar calendar.

Iran, Saudi Arabia vow to bring Mideast 'security, stability'
Beijing (AFP) April 6, 2023 - Top diplomats from Middle East rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing on Thursday, resuming diplomatic relations and pledging to work together to bring "security and stability" to their turbulent region.

In a joint statement released after talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the two sides vowed to continue to work together to improve ties.

The meeting came after a surprise Chinese-brokered deal in March put Tehran and Riyadh on a path to restore relations that had been severed seven years ago when protesters in Iran attacked Saudi diplomatic missions.

"The two sides emphasised the importance of following up on the implementation of the Beijing Agreement and its activation in a way that expands mutual trust and the fields of cooperation and helps create security, stability and prosperity in the region," Thursday's joint statement said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang "witnessed the signing of a joint statement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the two countries announced the resumption of diplomatic relations with immediate effect", the ministry said.

French President Emmanuel Macron and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen were also in the Chinese capital Thursday, seeking to make Europe's case in a meeting with Xi Jinping for bringing an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

Macron, in joint remarks to the media alongside Xi, welcomed the Iran-Saudi thaw as he congratulated his Chinese counterpart for securing "this important step forward".

- Shock rapprochement -

The shock rapprochement between mainly Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, and Shiite-majority Iran, strongly at odds with Western governments over its nuclear activities, has the potential to reshape relations across a region characterised by turbulence for decades.

Saudi state TV channel Al Ekhbariya aired footage of the pair of diplomats shaking hands in front of Saudi and Iranian flags and then talking and smiling.

Under last month's agreement, the two countries are to reopen their embassies and missions within two months and implement security and economic cooperation deals signed more than 20 years ago.

Saudi Arabia severed relations with Iran in January 2016, after protesters attacked its embassy in Tehran and consulate in the Iranian city of Mashhad over Riyadh's execution of the Saudi opposition Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

Talks between the foreign ministers are expected to be followed by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Riyadh.

Raisi accepted an invitation from Saudi Arabia's King Salman, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber said on Monday.

- Cautious US welcome -

The United States has for decades been the key diplomatic power in the Middle East and has an alliance, albeit a frequently strained one, with Saudi Arabia.

Washington has cautiously welcomed the rapprochement between the Saudis and US adversary Iran despite the role of China, which it sees as its biggest global challenger.

"If this dialogue leads to concrete actions by Iran to curb its destabilising activities in the region, including the proliferation of dangerous weapons, then of course we would welcome that," US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington.

Iran and Saudi Arabia support rival sides in several conflict zones across the region, including in Yemen, where Huthi rebels are backed by Tehran and Riyadh leads a military coalition supporting the government.

The two sides also vie for influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

Experts said that Beijing's role would likely increase confidence that any deal would stick.

"Because China is a strong backer of Iran, Saudi should have more confidence in Iran's ability to comply with the agreement, an issue that has always been in doubt," said Joel Rubin, a former State Department official.

Thursday's meeting "suggests that the process hasn't gone off track since the Beijing announcement last month", said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project.

"But it's still early days to judge whether this is just a tactical detente or a way-station towards strategic rapprochement."

- Warming ties -

Officials from Iran and Saudi Arabia held several rounds of dialogue in Baghdad and Oman before they met in Beijing.

In 2016 several Gulf countries followed Riyadh's action in scaling back ties with Tehran, but they have led the way in restoring diplomatic relations.

Iran welcomed an Emirati ambassador last September, after a six-year absence, and on Wednesday named its own ambassador to the UAE following a nearly eight-year hiatus.

It said last year Kuwait had sent its first ambassador to Tehran since 2016.

Iran has also welcomed a potential rapprochement with Bahrain, a close Saudi ally, which in the past accused Iran of backing a Shiite-led uprising in the Sunni-ruled kingdom, an accusation Tehran denies.