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Iran chooses new president in tense race

Russia not ready to set date for Iran nuclear plant: report
The Russian state company building a controversial nuclear power plant in Iran is not yet ready to set a start-up date for the project, its head said in an interview published Wednesday. "This is a very difficult process, so I think to speak of a concrete date for the launch is still early," Dan Belenky, head of state-owned nuclear contractor Atomstroiexport, told the Interfax news agency. Belenky's comments were in contrast to earlier statements by Tehran claiming that the facility in Iran's southern port city of Bushehr would start operating in the next few months. In March, Iranian Energy Minister Parviz Fattah said the plant would generate around 500 megawatts by August 22, while Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced that it would begin operating by September. The Bushehr project has provoked fears in Western countries and Israel that it will give Iran nuclear expertise that could be used by the Islamic republic to develop a nuclear bomb. But Russia has continued to pursue the project, which is being overseen by Atomstroiexport, part of state-owned Russian nuclear monopoly Rosatom. Belenky also told Interfax that the Bushehr project had run into "financial problems" due to Russian banks that had declined to work with Iran. "The problems with financing exist because not all Russian banks are ready to work with Iran, and we have to find alternative options. Due to this there are problems, but this is more a technical issue, and certainly not the fault of the Iranian side," he said. The Bushehr project has experienced numerous delays, including some that were linked to problems in Iran's payments to Russia.
by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) June 9, 2009
Iran chooses a new president on Friday in what is emerging as a two-horse race between moderate ex-premier Mir Hossein Mousavi and incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose turbulent four years in office have been marked by a nuclear standoff with the West and deep economic crisis.

The country is gearing up for a tense battle in Friday's election after a campaign of mudslinging and unusually feisty televised debates between the four candidates.

Running alongside Ahmadinejad and Mousavi are reformist ex-parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi, the only cleric among the candidates, and the conservative former head of the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohsen Rezai.

But the race has become a straight fight between Ahmadinejad -- the hardline outspoken son of a blacksmith, and Mousavi -- the last man to hold the post of premier who steered the economy during Iran's war with Iraq in the 1980s.

Kamran Daneshjoo, the head of Iran's election committee, said on Monday he expects "record-breaking turnout" among the 46.2 million eligible voters, half of whom were born after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

He predicted turnout would be high "despite the propaganda of the arrogant nations (Western powers) who are undermining the election."

Analysts are still hesitant to pick a winner, suggesting the vote may be a repeat of 2005 when a relatively unknown Ahmadinejad scored a stunning upset in a second-round runoff against heavyweight cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

A runoff will be held on June 19 if no single candidate emerges with 50 percent plus one vote in the first round.

If Ahmadinejad, 52, is defeated, it will the first time a sitting president is ousted after a single four-year term.

Ahmadinejad's 2005 victory swept the conservatives back into the top echelon of Iranian politics after eight years under reformist cleric Mohammad Khatami who failed nevertheless to implement many of his reforms.

Under Ahmadinejad, however, Iran has become increasingly isolated on the international stage because of its refusal to halt sensitive nuclear work and he has enraged the world over his anti-Israel tirades.

He has also come under fire from his three rivals who accuse him of putting Iran in danger with his policies and of "mismanaging" the energy dependent economy, now battling rampant inflation and shrinking oil revenues.

Another key challenge for the winner will be relations with its archfoe the United States, which under new President Barack Obama is seeking to mend three decades of severed ties while at the same time taking a tough line on the nuclear standoff.

Western powers suspect that Iran's uranium enrichment programme is aimed at making atomic bombs, a charge Tehran vehmently denies.

The programme was frozen under Khatami, but Ahmadinejad resumed it after taking office in 2005, calling the suspension "shameful."

Since then he has doggedly pursued the nuclear agenda, despite three sets of UN sanctions, while Iran has regularly boasted of testing new missiles that could reach its foes in the region.

The four candidates in Friday's race were the only ones to survive a screening by the powerful Guardians Council out of a total of 475 Iranians who registered as prospective candidates, including 42 women.

Khatami and several other reformists have thrown their weight behind Mousavi and anti-Ahmadinejad groups are urging voters to turn out in large numbers to ensure his defeat.

"A 50 percent voter turnout is good for Ahmadinejad, but if around 35 million voters come to the ballot boxes, then it is trouble for him," political analyst Mashaallah Shamsolvaezin told AFP.

He said nearly 50 percent of the eligible voters are "silent voters" who are usually against the hardliners and if they vote in large numbers, it "could turn the game" against Ahmadinejad.

Karim Sadjadpour of US-based Carnegie Endowmnent for International Peace said in a recent report that none of the three challengers had generated the type of excitement that Khatami did in 1997.

"Mousavi, in particular, may receive many votes driven by fear of an Ahmadinejad re-election, rather than a great desire to see a Mousavi presidency," he said.

Mousavi, 67, has however been engaged in stormy debates with the incumbent in the election campaign, lambasting his economic policies and even charging Ahmadinejad's government with "undermining Iran's dignity".

OPEC's second largest oil exporter earns 50 percent of its revenues from oil sales, making its economy heavily dependent on volatile crude prices.

Economists have charged that despite the windfall oil revenues in the first three years of his term, Ahmadinejad's expansionist policies are mainly responsible for Iran's chronic economy.

But in Iran it is the supreme leader who has the final say on strategy.

"When it comes to major issues, such as the nuclear portfolio and relations with the United States, Khamenei will continue to have the last word," said Sadjadpour referring to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"But that being said... the president is widely thought of as Iran's second most powerful man. He chooses important cabinet positions and helps set the tone on economic and foreign policy."

"He is also the most visible Iranian official both domestically and internationally."

earlier related report
Diplomatic crossroads awaits next Iran president
The next Iranian president will take power at a defining moment for the Islamic republic's foreign policy with diplomatic overtures from US President Barack Obama offering a chance to turn the page.

For years Iran has derided the United States as the "Great Satan," while Obama's predecessor George W. Bush labelled Tehran part of an "axis of evil" and refused to rule out military action over Iran's nuclear programme.

But now Tehran has an opportunity to mend three decades of broken relations with Washington and pursue a negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff with the West which has seen the UN Security Council impose three sets of sanctions.

The next president will not take the big decisions -- the Iranian political system gives the final say on strategic issues to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But whoever wins this month's election will play the key role in implementing the policy and handling what may be a turning point in Iran's relations with the outside world.

"The core of Iran's foreign policy after the election will revolve around how to respond to Obama's moves and managing the nuclear talks with global powers," political analyst Mashaallah Shamsolvaezin told AFP.

"Until now, it was easy for Iran to blast the United States, especially after what Bush did," Shamsolvaezin said.

"But under Obama things have changed. There is a belief among Iranian leaders that, if required, Obama has the ability to turn the world against Iran, which is why Iranian leaders have to resolve all the outstanding issues with Washington during Obama's term."

Soon after taking office in January, Obama said his administration was ready to extend a diplomatic hand to Iran if it "unclenches its fist."

And on Thursday, Obama made a significant gesture to Iran, becoming the first sitting US president to acknowledge US involvement in the 1953 coup which overthrew the government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, a longstanding Iranian demand.

But US officials have also made clear that if Tehran spurns the overtures, Washington will seek much tougher UN action over Iran's nuclear programme, which Western governments suspect is cover for a drive for an atomic bomb.

Iran has made some conciliatory gestures of its own, taking part in a US-backed conference on Afghanistan in The Hague on March 31 and offering its help in stabilising its eastern neighbour where US-led troops are battling a raging insurgency.

Shamsolvaezin said Tehran knows Washington needs its help in maintaining regional stability. "It will play this card in its foreign policy," he said.

Frederic Tellier, senior Iran analyst with Brussels-based think-tank the International Crisis Group, said: "What Iran seeks is a better managed, regulated and respectful rivalry."

For Iran, any possible dialogue with the United States will have to be "wide-ranging," Tellier wrote in his latest report.

Incumbent hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly antagonised Western governments by aggressively championing Iran's nuclear programme and rejecting the slightest concession to allay their suspicions.

Defying repeated UN Security Council ultimatums to freeze uranium enrichment, Ahmadinejad said Iran's drive to master the nuclear fuel cycle was a "train without brakes and no reverse gear."

His leading challenger in Friday's election, moderate former premier Mir Hossein Mousavi, has promised to work to improve Iran's relations with the outside world but analysts said they doubted there would be much change in nuclear policy if he were elected.

"I don't think the Islamic republic will compromise on the nuclear issue whoever becomes president, be it Ahmadinejad or Mousavi," said Sayed Mohammad Marandi, head of North American studies at Tehran University.

"It has nothing to do with who becomes president. If Iran feels that Obama has recognised its enrichment programme, Iran will give them the guarantees they are seeking."

But Marandi warned a tit-for-tat approach from Iran could not be ruled out, if Washington again steps up pressure with "the aim of hurting Iran."

"They (Iranian officials) will not sit and watch. If they (US officials) decide to play hard ball, so will Iran."

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Iran army warns reformist candidate ahead of vote
Tehran (AFP) June 8, 2009
A top Iranian army commander warned reformist presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi on Monday against accusing the Islamist Basij militia of electoral interference, the state IRNA news agency reported. "Although in the previous election, Karroubi and some other candidates repeatedly made this claim ... they have not been able to present a shred of evidence," armed forces deputy chief of ... read more







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